Category: Washington Post

  • Trump says he will report NBC host to FCC for ‘rebuke or punishment’

    Trump says he will report NBC host to FCC for ‘rebuke or punishment’

    President Donald Trump, angered by a comment that NBC anchor Kristen Welker made about his endorsements in the midterm elections, said Sunday he would report her to the Federal Communications Commission for a “rebuke or punishment” in his latest call for the agency to take action against broadcasters.

    Welker, ahead of the airing of her show Meet the Press, told NBC D.C. affiliate WRC-TV that Trump is “going to loom large” over the November midterm elections. She noted that he endorsed several candidates in the primaries and said he had “some mixed results.”

    Trump took issue with Welker’s characterization, insisting in a Truth Social post that his record of endorsements is, “without question, the strongest Endorsement in the History of Politics.”

    “Because of this purposeful inaccuracy, she will be reported to the FCC for rebuke or punishment,” Trump said in a post on Truth Social, saying he hoped its chairperson, Brendan Carr, “will take this Threat to our Country very seriously.” In a later post, Trump also complained about polls used by media organizations, without giving details, saying, “FCC TO THE RESCUE!”

    Trump’s calls for FCC action are the latest move by his administration to seek investigations and sanctions against journalists and media companies. The FCC did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

    In a statement, NBC News said, “Kristen is one of the best in the business and we stand by her.”

    Welker is a Philadelphia native and a former reporter and anchor for NBC10.

    In the Sunday comments, Welker pointed out that Trump’s most recent pick of Sen. Darline Graham in South Carolina’s GOP Senate primary was successful.

    Other major candidates in competitive primaries who won with a Trump endorsement include Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, who defeated Sen. John Cornyn in the state’s GOP Senate primary runoff, and Julia Letlow, who defeated Sen. Bill Cassidy in the Louisiana GOP primary for the Senate seat.

    Some candidates Trump endorsed lost their primaries. Among them were GOP gubernatorial candidates Burt Jones in Georgia and Randy Feenstra in Iowa, and Rep. Cory Mills (R., Fla.), who was seeking reelection. As of Sunday, four Trump-endorsed House candidates and six Trump-endorsed statewide candidates have lost their GOP primary races.

    Historically, U.S. presidents have usually preferred to stay out of the fray in House and Senate primary races to preserve party unity. But Trump has taken pride in the power of his endorsement, especially in a year when his name is not on the ballot. On the campaign trail, he’s told voters: “What I really want you to do is pretend, please, that I’m on the ballot.”

    Carr, who since becoming FCC chairperson in Trump’s second term has relished the role of media enforcer, has previously warned that he would deny or revoke government-issued licenses if broadcasters run what the agency deems “fake news.”

    Under the Communications Act of 1934, the FCC has the power to issue broadcast licenses, and it has the authority to monitor that licensed stations serve the “public convenience, interest, or necessity.” It can enforce this by enacting broadcast programming restrictions, but it must adhere to First Amendment limitations.

    While the FCC has the limited ability to revoke stations’ broadcast licenses, it has not done so in over 40 years, and its powers do not include revoking licenses because of a disagreement over a viewpoint expressed on the station. Experts have said that revoking a license or censuring a news station because the president disagrees with its content would amount to a violation of the First Amendment.

    In March, Carr threatened to remove broadcast licenses over news coverage of the U.S.-Israeli war in Iran — a move Trump endorsed.

    Last month, the president demanded that ABC and NBC lose their government-issued broadcast licenses because they did not interrupt regularly scheduled programming to air one of his speeches.

    The FCC also mounted a separate battle against ABC over the summer after the president criticized the network’s late-night comedy host Jimmy Kimmel.

    As the FCC conducted an early review of its eight local broadcast licenses, ABC sued the agency, alleging that the commission’s review is unconstitutional under the First Amendment.

  • Farmers say they face a new crisis as Trump’s tariffs, Iran war raise costs

    Farmers say they face a new crisis as Trump’s tariffs, Iran war raise costs

    For nearly 16 years, Wendy Johnson has tried to build an Iowa farm that could survive the kinds of economic shocks that drove farmers out of business when she was growing up in the 1980s.

    She diversified her operations, growing corn, small grains, and soybeans while also raising sheep, cattle, pigs, and chickens. She opted to sell directly to consumers and transitioned a portion of her 1,200 acres to organic production. She avoided debt and even planted trees to protect her soil and livestock.

    But the latest crisis has defied her careful planning: President Donald Trump’s tariffs and his war with Iran have driven up the cost of fertilizer, fuel, and machinery just as weak crop prices have made it harder to cover those rising expenses.

    “I am afraid that we’re looking into the barrel of another farm crisis,” said Johnson, a fourth-generation farmer, who estimates her profits are down by as much as 50%. “And we all know historically what that did to our … rural communities.”

    Johnson is among American farmers who say they are desperate for relief from Washington as Trump administration policies raise costs and slash profits. Recently, Trump slapped 50% tariffs on Canada, a critical source of fertilizer and farm equipment. And he wrote in a Truth Social post that he would pause tariffs on some imported ground beef in an effort to lower grocery prices, infuriating U.S. cattle ranchers who say the move would undermine domestic herders.

    Meanwhile, the federal farm bill — the traditional source of agricultural subsidies, crop insurance, and other support for farmers — is hopelessly out of date, and a divided Congress is far from agreement on how to replace it. To tide over rural America, Republican leaders are trying to pass $12 billion in emergency aid. But their plan would pair that money with billions of dollars for the war with Iran, the very conflict that has helped drive up fuel costs and added to the squeeze on farmers in the first place.

    That combination gets mixed reviews in farm country. While some industry groups, such as the American Farm Bureau Federation, have backed it, others have argued that it is counterproductive to tie the money to funding for the Iran war.

    “While we support providing immediate relief to farmers … we are troubled by funding that perpetuates a costly military conflict that risks further disrupting global markets, increasing input costs, and contributing to the economic pressures already weighing on farm operations,” the National Farmers Union wrote in a July letter to House Speaker Mike Johnson (R., Louisiana) and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D., New York).

    Aaron Lehman, president of the Iowa Farmers Union, echoed that sentiment.

    “I’m glad lawmakers are trying to find a way to help farmers,” Lehman said. “But this approach is not the right one.”

    When the House returns to Washington on Monday, passing a farm aid package remains near the top of the legislative to-do list. Iowa is particularly critical heading into the Nov. 3 midterm elections, with three competitive House seats and a competitive Senate race. In a state that has not had a Democratic governor in nearly two decades, even that race in Iowa is competitive, according to the Cook Political Report.

    Nationally, roughly a dozen competitive House seats have a significant concentration of agricultural areas, as well as multiple competitive Senate races. Republican leaders, trying to hang on to narrow majorities in both chambers, are especially eager to demonstrate their ability to deliver for a key constituency.

    “Right now, if you’re growing something in the ground, you’re losing money. And it’s not just a crop, it’s virtually every crop, and it’s virtually every region of the country,” said Senate Agriculture Committee Chair John Boozman (R., Arkansas).

    While farmers say getting the emergency aid is crucial, many called it a “Band-Aid” at best. Agriculture industry groups said the funding must be accompanied by long-term policy that addresses the structural problems threatening their livelihood.

    Russell Boening, a Texas farmer who runs his family’s operation with his brother, is facing a similar squeeze to Wendy Johnson in Iowa. The farm grows corn, grain sorghum, and wheat, as well as raising cattle. But crop revenue has fallen below the cost of their production as fertilizer and other inputs have become more expensive. Boening estimates the farm’s bottom line has taken as much as a 40% hit in some areas.

    The emergency aid is “needed,” he said, adding that farmers in South Texas are already seeking operating loans for 2027 so they can begin planting in January. But Boening urged Congress to get to work on longer-term policies because “farmers don’t want to come there every six months for a bridge payment for farmer assistance.”

    Ben LaCross, president of the Michigan Farm Bureau, also supports the emergency assistance, noting that farmers have been struggling with rising costs and weak commodity prices for more than a decade. He praised the Trump administration’s efforts to expand market opportunities for agricultural commodities, and said farmers need a new farm bill that further expands markets and helps reduce the cost of fertilizer and other inputs.

    The current farm bill — a multiyear law that sets national policy for agriculture and nutrition — is nearly eight years old. With the law originally designed to be renewed every five years, Congress has temporarily extended the legislation three times as lawmakers have failed to reach an agreement on updated policies. The latest extension will expire at the end of September.

    But Congress is nowhere near an agreement on a new policy framework. Republicans want to increase funding for commodity farmers to help offset rising production costs, while reducing federal funding for food stamps. Democrats, who oppose altering the food aid benefits, blocked Republicans from advancing the bill out of the Senate Agriculture Committee in early August. The committee will continue work when senators return from recess in mid-September.

    Boozman and Sen. John Hoeven (R., North Dakota) played key roles in advocating for emergency farm aid. The money was included in a party-line package Republicans are rushing to pass before the midterms. Along with funding for farmers, that package includes two other GOP priorities: Iran war funding and stricter rules for voting.

    GOP lawmakers aim to use the complex reconciliation process to pass the package through both chambers with a simple majority, forgoing the need for Democratic support. But for that plan to work, it would require near-unanimous support from Republicans — which it does not have.

    GOP senators had hoped to vote on a framework for the package before they left town for the August recess, but those plans were scrapped amid lingering concerns from multiple lawmakers within the conference.

    Between those concerns and a tight legislative calendar, the path to passing help for farmers before Nov. 3 is looking increasingly difficult.

  • These Democrats used to be Republicans — and hope that will help them win midterms

    These Democrats used to be Republicans — and hope that will help them win midterms

    Democrats have struggled to win over Republican voters in recent elections. This year, some Democratic candidates argue they can change that — because they were once Republicans.

    These party switchers say that they have unique insight into the concerns of voters distrustful of party politics, as well as those who feel they have no real home in either party, and that this knowledge will give them an edge in the upcoming midterm elections.

    “It is a big tent, right?” said Nancy Lacore, who is looking to flip Rep. Nancy Mace’s (R) seat in South Carolina and who left the GOP for the Democrats a decade ago. “There is room … in there for everybody.”

    There are at least three Democratic House candidates running in this year’s general election who are former registered Republicans. While the phenomenon isn’t new, in a midterm year where President Donald Trump’s popularity is slipping among some Republican and independent voters, it is indicative of what polling suggests is broader dissatisfaction with partisan politics.

    In past cycles, party switchers sometimes have struggled in general elections. But Democrats hope that Lacore and other ex-Republicans such as former TV anchor Janelle Stelson in Pennsylvania and Navy helicopter pilot Rebecca Bennett in New Jersey can help their party win in districts where the odds are against them — and perhaps, in the case of Florida gubernatorial candidate David Jolly, manage to find a way to take a statewide seat that has eluded them for decades.

    Part of the hope is that these party-switching candidates can reach Republicans who, like they did, have soured on Trump.

    Lacore, who left the GOP in 2016, said she constantly runs into voters at Democratic events who go up to her and say, “I [am] a former Republican, too.”

    “I’m really glad that I’ve got those folks on my side because that’s who we need going forward,” she said, noting that she wants to show fatigued Republicans that they have a place in the Democratic Party.

    Though Trump’s support has slipped during his second term, 81% of Republicans still support him, and his GOP support has fallen by only seven percentage points since the beginning of his second term, according to polls taken by the Washington Post. The party-switching candidates acknowledge that they probably will not be able to swing any elections by attracting only disaffected Republicans.

    Jolly, for instance, said there is a large pool of Republican voters who are not available to him — about 31% of the state, by his estimate, that makes up the hardened MAGA crowd. Because of that, part of his strategy, he said, is to focus on independents who are “just fatigued with Trump.”

    A growing number of Americans identify as independents; a January Gallup poll found that a record-high 45% of U.S. voters called themselves independents in 2025. Most of them said they lean more toward the Democratic Party than the GOP — 20% Democratic leaders to 15% Republican leaders. According to Gallup, independents’ approval of Trump collapsed, causing them to align with Democrats. And that’s something the party-switching candidates hope to capitalize on.

    “They say, ‘OK, let me look at Jolly,’ and they kick the tires of this former Republican who says: ‘Look, I think the private sector should lead. Economic growth is good. I think we should stay out of your bedroom,’” he said. “And they start to say, ‘Maybe I could work with this guy.’”

    In Florida, voters who aren’t registered with either party split 39% for Rep. Byron Donalds, the Republican gubernatorial candidate, and 38% for Jolly, according to a July poll from the University of North Florida, conducted before this month’s primary.

    Democrats also aren’t completely in love with their party right now. And that has some candidates emphasizing their fidelity to the United States rather than their politics.

    Bennett, the Navy helicopter pilot running in New Jersey against Republican Rep. Tom Kean Jr., expressed frustration with the hyperpartisan environment in Congress, arguing that partisanship has led only to a higher cost of living for Americans, including in her district.

    “I led missions in some of the most challenging environments on earth,” Bennett said of her 15 years in the military. “We served not as Democrats or Republicans, but as Americans who were there to serve our nation and get the mission done.”

    Similarly, Lacore, who served 35 years in the Navy and is running in a district with a lot of military personnel, is convinced that voters will look beyond party labels and see her as “somebody who understands what our military should be and where we need to get it back to.”

    Many of the party switchers face tough races in traditionally GOP-held areas. And while all won their primaries, several other former Republicans (including prominent ones such as Republican lieutenant governor Geoff Duncan in Georgia and longtime conservative lawyer George Conway in New York) lost theirs.

    Some strategists point to those losses as evidence that former Republicans running as Democrats may struggle to win both longtime Democratic voters and disaffected Republicans in a general election.

    Jason Roe, a Republican strategist who has never supported Trump but remains in the GOP, said party-switching candidates generally face an uphill battle because partisan voters have a hard time accepting that someone “can just switch parties and embody the DNA of that party.”

    Historically, party switchers have seen mixed results, with their success largely depending on whether their home states or districts underwent partisan realignment ahead of their change in affiliation. In the postwar era, for example, Southern Democrats such as Strom Thurmond (S.C.) and Richard C. Shelby (Ala.) found success after joining the Republican Party because their states shifted to the right.

    In more contemporary history, however, party switchers have encountered skepticism from their new party’s base over their conversion, as in the cases of Reps. Michael Forbes in 2000 and Parker Griffith in 2010, who lost their new parties’ primaries.

    Republican-turned-Democrat Charlie Crist, of Florida, was able to win House races under his new party banner but lost statewide races, unable to convince enough Democrats that he was one of them or enough Republicans to see themselves in him.

    Asked about Crist, Jolly brushed aside any parallels between them, arguing that Crist’s 2022 gubernatorial loss happened during a hyperpartisan moment in which Gov. Ron DeSantis’s (R) hold on the state was impenetrable.

    “This is not an ideological, partisan cycle,” Jolly said about this year’s gubernatorial race. “This is a change cycle.”

    Political strategists, however, have argued that only very specific types of party flippers succeed: those who are able to convince voters that they’ve fully embraced their new party’s outlook.

    “I think it takes a special kind of former Republican to be able to pull it off in a Democratic primary,” said Eric Stern, a Democratic strategist. “That’s true on the other side of the aisle, too.”

    Stern worked on the campaign of Bob Brooks, a firefighter who ran against former federal prosecutor Ryan Crosswell in the Democratic primary in Pennsylvania’s 7th District. Crosswell left the Republican Party in 2024, shortly before leaving the Justice Department. While Brooks ultimately beat Crosswell, Stern said he hopes “there are more Republicans out there who see the light.”

    “I would be skeptical of them, and I think it is incumbent on Democratic primary voters to view them with skepticism,” he said. “But I also would absolutely encourage them to come on over — the water’s warm.”

    Roe, the GOP strategist, predicted that the party switchers will not find a “warm embrace” from Democratic general elections voters because, in his view, “ever embracing Republicans is a character flaw” in the eyes of many Democrats.

    “[The] difference between the two parties today versus 20 years ago is just so stark,” Roe said. “Just not liking Trump is not enough.”

  • Russian strikes on food warehouses pose threat of shortages in Ukraine

    Russian strikes on food warehouses pose threat of shortages in Ukraine

    Russian airstrikes on civilian targets have destroyed shopping centers and food distribution warehouses across Ukraine, raising the specter of food shortages and price hikes as supermarkets in Kyiv and other cities struggle to keep their shelves stocked.

    Moscow shifted tactics this month to focus on civilian targets, including shopping malls, after Ukrainian drones destroyed major e-commerce warehouses in Russia.

    Russia initially bombed two distribution centers for Silpo, a major Ukrainian supermarket chain, and a main logistics center in Kyiv for Novus, another grocery and convenience store operator.

    Shelves emptied of fresh produce, as well as dairy products including sour cream, yogurt, and cheese.

    A wave of attacks in recent days has battered Kyiv and the surrounding region, hitting more warehouses and raising questions about how long retailers can keep stores stocked.

    Some stores filled the empty space with kombucha and other surplus products, trying to minimize the sense of scarcity. The government, seeking to avoid public panic, has not issued any alerts.

    The supermarkets, however, have warned customers of temporary disruptions. Silpo, for example, said: “Some goods will take longer to be delivered.”

    “As of today, roughly speaking, 90% of food logistics operated by retail chains have been destroyed, but that doesn’t mean Ukrainians will be left without food,” the country’s agriculture minister, Taras Vysotskyi, told the Ukrinform news agency on Friday.

    “There will be no threat of famine or a systemic physical shortage of food,” Vysotskyi said.

    After 4½ years of full-scale war and a brutal winter that often left whole neighborhoods without heat or electricity, some Ukrainians were taking the food shortages in stride.

    “I’m not worried because, first of all, it’s summer and we can buy whatever we need at farmers markets,” said Tata Verbetska, 39, a Kyiv resident. “Also, it’s not like everything is gone. In one supermarket, you’ll find one thing, at another supermarket, you’ll find something else you need. You just need to shop around more.”

    Verbetska said items produced locally that typically aren’t warehoused, like bread and meat, were still available, while conserved foods and grains were in short supply. “There is almost no beer to be found,” she said.

    On Friday evening, a Russian drone hit an ammunition depot in Myla, a village in the Bucha district west of the capital, triggering a massive explosion that killed 38 people in the surrounding residential area.

    Explosions continued through the night and well into Saturday as more than 300 emergency workers tried to contain the disaster.

    President Volodymyr Zelensky said Sunday that four people were still missing and at least 20 were injured.

    About 130 houses were damaged, and a section of a nearby highway was closed as emergency crews searched for unexploded ordnance and struggled to extinguish fires that continued to burn nearby.

    The Myla strike raised renewed concerns about ammunition depots and other military infrastructure being situated close to residential areas. Zelensky called that “unacceptable” and promised accountability for those responsible.

    In early July, Russian forces similarly carried out a massive attack on the Kyiv region and hit an ammunition depot in Vyshneve, southwest of the capital, killing nine people.

    More than 500 civilians were evacuated because of the risk of further detonations. And on Aug. 21, a Russian attack on military infrastructure in Kryvyi Rih killed 16 civilians and injured 130 others.

    Following the Myla strike, the Defense Ministry ordered an audit of ammunition and weapons storage facilities, but the military’s general staff also sought to remind the public that Russia was primarily to blame.

    In recent days, Russian strikes have repeatedly hit large shopping malls and other retail centers across Ukraine, including three Epicentr K big-box stores in the Zaporizhzhia region.

    Similar stores in Sumy and Kryvyi Rih have been hit, as well, raising concerns that Russia is increasingly targeting large retail centers and their logistics networks to frighten and exhaust the civilian population.

  • World mostly shrugs off Bessent’s ‘D-Day’ Iran sanctions threat

    World mostly shrugs off Bessent’s ‘D-Day’ Iran sanctions threat

    Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent began the week vowing an “economic onslaught” against Iran and its trading partners in a fresh bid to end the war. By the week’s end, countries with ties to Tehran had so far shrugged off the threat and analysts were left underwhelmed by the U.S. actions.

    China, which buys 90% of Iran’s oil, issued a defiant warning to Washington rather than back down. Iranian bank branches remained open in Dubai. At one Bank Melli branch in Abu Dhabi, staff were busy typing away and one employee explained that they were still open for business.

    Commercial flights also continued between Iran and Turkey as well as Iran and the United Arab Emirates, which had promised last week to sever all trade and financial transactions with Tehran. Routes flying to Thailand and Azerbaijan, as well as multiple destinations in both Russia and China, remained unaffected.

    As the week came to a close, the U.S. announced plans to sanction the UAE-based branches of Egypt’s Banque Misr. That fell well below expectations after Bessent’s warning that the world would see “a major announcement of a financial institution being sanctioned by the end of this week.”

    “As the war passes the six-month mark, the public actions taken by the Treasury Department this week do not match the hype,” said Alex Zerden, a former U.S. Treasury official and founder of Capitol Peak Strategies.

    “Operation Economic Outcast is a continuation of 47 years of restrictive economic measures against Iran but does not provide a clearer theory of economic or military victory in this current campaign,” Zerden said.

    The Treasury Department didn’t respond to a request for comment on Friday.

    Bessent’s threats — and the collective global shrug so far — underscore the Trump administration’s main conundrum as it seeks to sanction Iran into meeting its demands. Any effective sanctions campaign would need to hit China, a move that risks sparking retaliation and potentially massive global economic fallout. Anything less would add to Iran’s economic pain but not enough to budge its strategic calculus.

    U.S. credibility is also at stake. Bessent repeatedly compared the U.S. response to the historic 1944 D-Day landings in Normandy, France — a coordinated land and air invasion aimed at toppling the Nazi regime. But the U.S. acted unilaterally with its latest move, pressuring other countries rather than working with them, and Bessent openly acknowledged that going too fast and too hard risked tanking the global financial system.

    Further muddying the picture, Bessent also said the U.S. was engaged in “quiet diplomacy” to get its way. U.S. officials turned to counterparts in the U.K. asking for a statement of support, according to people familiar with the matter.

    The Treasury chief was also expected to speak with fellow finance ministers this weekend at a Group of 20 gathering in Asheville, N.C. One of the biggest questions attendees will likely have for Bessent is whether the US is willing to hit a Chinese financial institution, according to Josh Lipsky, chairperson of international economics at the Atlantic Council.

    The UAE, a key U.S. strategic ally, said earlier this month it would cut financial ties with Iran. But some flight and banking links with Tehran appear to continue, and the UAE’s government described its move in a statement to Bloomberg News as a “sovereign decision reflecting its strategic assessment of the national interest and the requirements of regional security.”

    Asked on Thursday which countries the U.S. had approached so far, President Donald Trump responded, “About Iran? There’s not a lot to speak to. We don’t want to speak to them. We’re not looking to meet or anything.”

    “You can’t unleash meaningful economic warfare on Iran while ignoring the one country that absorbs 90% of its oil exports,” said Leland Miller, the CEO of China Beige Book data platform and a commissioner on the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, which advises the U.S. Congress.

    In the meantime, the U.S. appears no closer to ending the war that Trump launched alongside Israel in late February. Iran has endured decades of harsh sanctions and has recently faced a full U.S. Navy blockade of its ports that has dried up oil exports.

    Officials in nations that have traditionally had strong economic links with Iran have not heard much from the U.S. this week. Turkey has not received any formal guidance from the U.S. on the restrictions and how they apply to Iran, according to people familiar with the matter. But they believe they’ll have adequate time to discuss and implement requirements once they are informed, they said.

    The response from Pakistan indicated that even countries with close ties to the US are feeling little immediate pressure from the new campaign, at least so far.

    While Islamabad has won praise from Trump for its mediation efforts to end the war, there was no indication that its overland trade with the Islamic Republic — such as in rice and mangoes — had slowed down. Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Tahir Andrabi told reporters this week that the country “is not obliged” to respond to unilateral sanctions.

    “The idea Iran can be knocked out with this is risible — it’s not going to move the needle,” said Stephen Fallon, principal adviser at DBM Consulting. “It’s not possible to get a completely airtight seal on this thing. There are too many actors, and it’s too rewarding for the people involved.”

  • Military leaders warn Hegseth against extending Iran war operations

    Military leaders warn Hegseth against extending Iran war operations

    Several U.S. military leaders have advised Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth that prolonging large-scale operations against Iran is unsustainable and risks weakening their ability to confront threats elsewhere, including the U.S. homeland, according to people familiar with a recent assessment prepared for the Pentagon chief.

    The warnings — detailed for Hegseth by the heads of the Army, Navy, and Air Force and the four-star commanders overseeing U.S. operations throughout Europe, Asia, and Latin America — appear in the Aug. 14 edition of the Secretary of Defense Orders Book (SDOB), these people said. They described the assessment to the Washington Post on the condition of anonymity because the document is classified.

    The SDOB, typically produced twice monthly, outlines the worldwide availability of U.S. warships, aircraft, personnel, and weapons systems. It reflects the president’s priorities for the force, which are carried out by the defense secretary, and includes insights from the military’s top generals and admirals that inform the directives the Pentagon issues.

    As President Donald Trump has pressured Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and accept several U.S. provisions for ending the stalemated conflict, he has been adamant that all options remain available to him — including further military action. Consequently, U.S. Central Command, the headquarters responsible for prosecuting the Iran war, has kept a force of more than 50,000 troops on alert for months in case the president orders additional attacks.

    The Aug. 14 orders book directs some troops deployed in the Middle East to remain there through September and some others into 2027, said those familiar with the document. The prospect of extending those forces further compelled military leaders to voice their concern, these people said.

    Leaders of the U.S. European Command, the U.S. Pacific Command, and the U.S. Southern Command, along with the Navy’s top admiral, responded with what is characterized in the SDOB as a “non-concur,” those familiar with the assessment said — meaning they disagree with the secretary’s order to extend their forces but will execute it nevertheless.

    The geographic combatant commands overseeing U.S. operations in Europe, Asia, and Latin America have had their ships, aircraft, and other equipment pulled away to support the Iran conflict. This has limited their ability to conduct missions and ensure proper training, those familiar with the assessment said. The Navy, in particular, has had to stretch its capacity to keep up with wartime demands.

    Army and Air Force leadership concurred with Hegseth’s desire to extend their deployed forces, but each emphasized that doing so would come with significant risk, these people said.

    Overall, the tenor from the military leadership is that the ongoing Iran operation, having reached the six-month mark, has been “too much for too long,” said one person familiar with the assessment.

    The military’s warning to Hegseth, which has not been previously reported, offers new insight into the administration’s dilemma as Trump seeks to end the conflict on terms favorable to the United States while Iran, cognizant of the war’s unpopularity with most Americans and its mounting toll on the U.S. arsenal, refuses to capitulate.

    “Decisions regarding the scope and duration of specific force commitments to any Combatant Command are made based on the current threat assessment, strategic priorities established by the President, and the advice of the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and Combatant Commanders,” Sean Parnell, a spokesperson for Hegseth, said in a statement to the Post.

    The Pentagon “does not discuss internal operational processes,” including the Secretary of Defense Orders Book, “or specific concurrences, non-concurrences, or risk assessments provided by the Services or Combatant Commands during force allocation deliberations,” he added.

    The Secretary of Defense Orders Book also is reviewed by Gen. Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. A spokesperson for the chairman declined to comment and referred questions to Hegseth’s office.

    The orders book is one avenue for senior military leaders to surface resource concerns and provide Hegseth with assessments on how gaining or losing assets will impact their objectives.

    It’s common for commanders to discuss risk, said the one person familiar with the recent assessment. But the outlook now is “more dire” overall, this person explained, adding that certain generals and admirals were more expansive and frank than is usual in telling Hegseth they disagreed with orders to keep providing equipment and personnel when the operation’s trajectory remains uncertain.

    The top military officials at European Command and Southern Command each cautioned Hegseth that lending their ships and surveillance aircraft to Central Command has degraded their ability to fulfill homeland-defense obligations, said those familiar with the assessment.

    Adm. Samuel Paparo, the chief of Pacific Command, disagreed with the level of support he was ordered to continually provide, including an aircraft carrier strike group and naval destroyers, those familiar with the assessment said.

    A spokesperson for European Command declined to comment. Spokespeople for Southern Command and Pacific Command did not respond to requests for comment.

    Adm. Daryl Caudle, the chief of Naval Operations, provided Hegseth with the dimmest picture, saying in the SDOB that the Navy cannot sustain its current level of support for the Iran conflict because there is no anticipated end date, those familiar with the assessment said.

    The Navy has shouldered an extraordinary burden. It has been asked to supply dozens of vessels for the Iran campaign — first to take part in the U.S. assault and defend against Iranian counterattacks and, for several months since, to enforce Trump’s blockade of Iranian ports as he attempts to force open the Strait of Hormuz. Deployments for some vessels and crews have been extended by months.

    Caudle conveyed to Hegseth that barely one-fourth of the Navy’s destroyer fleet is ready to deploy, a sharp decline from prewar levels, said those familiar with the assessment.

    More broadly, the document says that the impact on ship maintenance, if demands imposed by the Iran operation continue unchanged, jeopardizes the fleet’s availability should other conflicts arise, people familiar with the assessment said.

    A spokesperson for Caudle did not respond to a request for comment.

    At a recent event in Norfolk, he talked about the deployment extensions, calling them “very challenging for our sailors.”

    “I typically am not a big fan of extensions, and I push back hard on that, but the enemy gets a vote,” Caudle said, according to a transcript of his remarks provided by the Navy.

    Although Army and Air Force leadership concurred with Hegseth’s current path for the Iran conflict, they conceded the challenges it has imposed, said those familiar with the assessment.

    Elements of the Army’s 82nd Airborne Division, which in March mobilized 2,000 soldiers in response to the Iran war, will see their deployment extended to a year, Maj. Gen. Brandon R. Tegtmeier, the division commander, said in a letter dated Sunday.

    The letter to the division community, reviewed by the Post, acknowledges the difficulty of the unknowns throughout the mobilization and that leaders “understand that a longer tour weighs heavily on every household, including our own.”

    Those troops would be central to any ground invasion of Iran.

    Deployments for units operating the Army’s Patriot air defense systems, which shoot down missiles and drones targeting U.S. bases, also are expected to be extended, said those familiar with the assessment.

    A spokesperson for the Army did not respond to a request for comment.

    The depletion of Patriot interceptors — as a result of the Iran war and previous donations to Ukraine — has limited the Trump administration’s ability to re-escalate the war, as Tehran retains the ability to successfully target U.S. facilities throughout the Middle East.

    As the Post and others have reported previously, the Iran war also has drained U.S. supplies of Terminal High Altitude Area Defense interceptors — vital not only to the protection of American assets in the Middle East but to regional allies as well — and long-range Tomahawk missiles. About 25% of the Pentagon’s Reaper drone fleet has been lost, and U.S. bases there have sustained billions of dollars in damage.

    The Trump administration has maintained that reports of munitions shortages are inaccurate.

    Many of the Air Force units sent to the Middle East to conduct bombing runs and other around-the-clock operations also are slated to stay in the region into 2027, those familiar with the assessment said.

    The Air Force declined to comment, citing the classification of the orders book.

    A spokesperson for Central Command declined to comment and referred questions to Hegseth’s office.

    The recent “non-concurs” from some uniformed leaders mark the latest warning from military leaders about the war.

    As the Post and others reported previously, Caine advised the White House before hostilities began that the U.S. lacked sufficient munitions — and support from allies — to conduct an extended large-scale campaign.

    More recently, Gen. Alexus Grynkewich, the head of European Command, privately warned the Pentagon that he lacked adequate naval forces to shield Israel and the U.S. homeland from missile attacks, as the Post reported this month.

    In the Pacific, key U.S. allies have raised alarm that the Pentagon’s depletion of missiles and air defense interceptors leaves them vulnerable to China. The Navy’s only dedicated aircraft carrier in the Pacific, a linchpin of the military’s plan to deter Beijing, was sent to the Middle East to relieve another carrier that has been deployed for more than 300 days.

  • NASA’s newest telescope blasts off to answer universe’s big questions

    NASA’s newest telescope blasts off to answer universe’s big questions

    NASA’s Nancy Grace Roman telescope blasted off from near Cape Canaveral, Fla., on Sunday, sending a $4.3 billion project into space with the hope of answering some of the most profound questions in the universe.

    It was NASA’s most ambitious telescope launch since the James Webb Space Telescope, which took off from Earth in 2021 after years of delays.

    But in contrast to its predecessor, Roman ran relatively on budget and ahead of schedule, even after funding pressures and the pandemic threatened to throw a wrench in the project.

    Named for NASA’s first chief astronomer, the Roman is a survey telescope, designed to look far and wide into cosmic time and the universe. Its field of view is big — about 100 times that of the Hubble Space Telescope. Among other observations, scientists hope it will help shed light on the unexplained force called dark energy that is responsible for the universe’s accelerating expansion and its ultimate fate.

    At the launch, the major stages were all “nominal,” as NASA’s announcers put it — agency-speak for going as planned.

    Down at the Kennedy Space Center, scientists, engineers, and other space enthusiasts gathered on a partly sunny morning to watch a SpaceX rocket rumble off the launchpad, carrying the telescope. It’ll take about three months to reach its distant orbit, 1 million miles out from Earth in the direction of Mars. (Hubble lives in a low Earth orbit about 350 miles up.) NASA hopes the first images could come at the beginning of 2027.

    Roman will look for a phenomenon called cosmological redshift. As the universe expands, light wavelengths are stretched out as they travel long distances. (The same does not happen to objects with mass, like galaxies, because they’re being held together by gravity.) The longer the distance, the greater the stretching, which corresponds to the red and infrared end of the light spectrum.

    Redshift carries important information when looking at distant cosmic objects. Light isn’t instantaneous; it has a finite speed, so the rays from a star in the sky visible today from Earth might have been emitted millions of years ago. When looking at the redshift of a galaxy or an exploding star even farther from Earth, Roman’s crisp infrared view should help scientists discern how far away it is — in effect dating how far back the telescope is peering in time.

    “We will expect exquisite dark-energy measurements from Roman,” said Yun Wang, a researcher at the Infrared Processing and Analysis Center from the California Institute of Technology who worked on Roman and two of its predecessor projects. “It’s very exciting.”

    The telescope will also hunt for traces of exoplanets, distant worlds that live outside our solar system. There are only about 6,500 known exoplanets, according to NASA’s data. But Roman could help spot as many as 100,000 new ones by picking up on faint signals, like a blip in a star’s brightness as a planet passes in front of it.

    Scientists hope its wide field of view will also pick up on a rare event called microlensing that they hope will indicate the existence of small planets like Earth — maybe even ones that are potentially habitable.

    Roman the astronomer was one of the agency’s first female executives and played a key role in securing funding for space projects such as Hubble — which made the observations that led to the discovery of dark energy in the first place.

    Over the course of and after construction of the Roman telescope, engineers put it through a battery of tests to make sure it would survive various challenges of the launch and space. They shook it, simulating the vibrations of the launch, and blasted it with loud noise. They stuck it in a cold vacuum chamber for more than 60 days. And on Sunday, they counted down and let it go, to scan the skies for at least five years.

    “In some ways, I could never believe that this moment would actually happen,” said Dominic Benford, the telescope’s program scientist, on the launch live stream. “And it is here, and far more beautiful than I could’ve anticipated.”

  • This Appalachian memoir author is running as a Democratic contrast to JD Vance

    This Appalachian memoir author is running as a Democratic contrast to JD Vance

    CLIFTON FORGE, Va. — Veterans flock to a law office in this old railroad town for help wrestling with the feds over healthcare. Across the mountains in Waynesboro, families who can’t afford groceries spend hours waiting outside the food pantry. Up in Monterey, the town economic development director works for free because budgets are thin.

    Beth Macy writes it all down, still chasing stories across Appalachia after 40 years as a newspaper reporter and author of books including Dopesick, an exposé about Big Pharma’s contributions to the opioid crisis that became an Emmy-winning Hulu miniseries.

    After the memoir Hillbilly Elegy catapulted JD Vance to prominence as an authentic child of the Rust Belt and Appalachia, Macy is leaning on her own roots and her writing about the region to jump into politics. But her long-shot bid for a House seat as a Democrat in a bright red Virginia district positions her as a kind of anti-Vance.

    In an essay in the New York Times shortly before Vance was elected vice president, Macy faulted him for fearmongering about immigrants and turning his back on the public institutions that helped him escape poverty.

    “I’m coming at it from the perspective of an old-school mountain Democrat,” Macy said in a recent interview. “Let’s make it safe, let’s protect working people.”

    The two writers hail from Ohio hometowns only 60 miles apart: Middletown for Vance and Urbana for Macy. Both are the product of dysfunctional families and economic hardship. But Vance went on to the Ivy League and venture capital, urging the downtrodden to take personal responsibility for their prospects in life.

    Macy, 62, published her own life story last year in Paper Girl, which examines the same terrain as Hillbilly Elegy but comes to very different conclusions.

    Macy, who put down roots in Appalachia and spent decades writing about the region’s struggles for Virginia’s Roanoke Times newspaper, believes Vance blames poor people for their own plight. She sees outside forces working against the region going back generations, including the opioid makers who falsely claimed that their drugs were not addictive, and government policies driving the offshoring of manufacturing jobs.

    Campaigning with pad and pen in hand, Macy says she aims to “connect pain to policy,” and she criticizes both major parties for a system that fails those in need. The message was warmly received on a recent campaign swing, and many voters were thrilled to meet Macy, who made sure the Dopesick show was filmed partly in the district.

    But after years of division stoked by culture wars, folks who came out to see Macy the celebrity are not sold on casting a ballot for someone with a D after her name.

    “Exactly the issue she has to overcome here — and I’m not sure how — is that an awful lot of people vote by just the R or the D, as simple as that,” said Robin Sullenberger, who spent two decades as a supervisor in Highland County and stopped by a recent Macy campaign appearance in Monterey. The supervisor jobs are nonpartisan, but Highland County — Virginia’s least populous county — has picked a Republican for president in every election since Alf Landon in 1936.

    Macy is running against Republican incumbent Ben Cline in Virginia’s bright-red 6th District, a New Jersey-sized stretch of mountains and valleys that stretches from Winchester in the north to Roanoke in the south.

    The nonpartisan election handicapper Cook Political Report rates the district as “Solid Republican.” Cline, seeking his fifth term, beat his 2024 Democratic challenger by 28 percentage points and outperformed Donald Trump, who won by 24 points.

    “I know that her liberal positions on the issues appeal to some sections of the Democrat base, but to compare her to JD is to suggest that her message may sell here,” Cline said in an interview. “It’s not selling here in the Shenandoah Valley, in the Roanoke Valley. There are common-sense conservative values here.”

    Macy is navigating a tricky path within her party. She repudiates the recent rise of democratic socialists and also blames establishment lions such as President Bill Clinton for the NAFTA trade deal that she says wrecked the region’s economy.

    She depicts her campaign as focused on practical solutions: addressing the “immigration disaster” through humane treatment and clear paths to citizenship; providing affordable healthcare through Medicare-for-all; aiding farmers by ending tariffs; taxing billionaires.

    Macy has raised more money than Cline as of July 15, at $1.7 million compared with his $1.4 million, according to analysis by the nonpartisan campaign finance site Virginia Public Access Project. Almost all of her donations have come from individuals, while Cline has received more than $400,000 from GOP political action committees, according to VPAP.

    Macy didn’t get involved in politics until last year, when friends in Roanoke — the blue-leaning city in Southwest Virginia where she lives with her husband — convinced her she had the name recognition to challenge Cline.

    At the time, Macy was fine-tuning the manuscript of Paper Girl, which is part memoir and part hard-eyed examination of what’s become of her hometown. Macy grew up poor with an alcoholic father and a mother who took any job to provide for the family. Community support helped them get by, and federal Pell grants enabled Macy to go to college and pursue a career in journalism.

    Returning to Urbana, Macy wrote about finding a town hollowed out by poverty and drug addiction. The sense of community, she says, has been replaced by a divisive strain of Christian nationalism and MAGA-fueled anger toward anyone seen as an outsider. A place once proud of its heritage helping enslaved African Americans seek freedom on the Underground Railroad is now peppered with Confederate flags.

    A central figure in the book is a transgender young man struggling to get by in the community. Macy is deeply sympathetic to LGBTQ+ people because one of her two grown children is in a same-sex marriage and the other is nonbinary.

    An editor pushed her to end the book with a strong statement about political solutions. “Basically, elect better people to office, people who will do the most good for the most people,” Macy said. “I didn’t think it would be me.”

    Campaigning still feels odd to a journalist who spent years striving to be nonpartisan. She habitually takes notes, asking everyone she meets for their phone number and the spelling of their name. If she fills up a notebook, she’ll bum another from anyone nearby.

    Macy says stories are the heart of her campaign: her own family member who died young after refusing two organ transplants because the donors had received the coronavirus vaccine. The farmer who can’t afford diesel fuel for his tractor because of the war in Iran. The sheriff who can’t get emergency calls because his mountainous county has only one cell tower.

    And, everywhere, the families who have lost loved ones to painkillers that were promoted as safe.

    “I don’t care if you’re Republican or Democrat or moderate. We’re people. We’re Americans,” Macy told a group of Democrats at a fundraiser outside Harrisonburg — like other college towns, a blue island in the district. Her message was simultaneously that President Donald Trump’s policies are making problems worse and that people can fix them by overcoming political divisions.

    “We’re not going to win this thing,” she said, “without meeting people in the middle.” She claimed incremental success, but for offbeat reasons. One business owner told Macy he’d vote for her because he didn’t like the way Trump disrespected Rob Reiner after his tragic death, she said; another Republican was going to switch after seeing Trump post an image of himself as Jesus that appeared to be AI-generated.

    “I’ll take it,” Macy said.

    In Clifton Forge, where the exteriors were shot for Dopesick several years ago and where actor Michael Keaton was seen in local restaurants, the economy has struggled for decades since the Chesapeake & Ohio Railroad shifted jobs elsewhere.

    Kristen McConnell sees desperation every day in her law practice focusing on veteran healthcare and disability issues. Solving problems is harder, she said, because of politics.

    “Everybody wants healthcare, everybody wants childcare, everybody wants a livable wage,” McConnell said, but if a Democrat talks about those subjects, it is viewed as socialism.

    “People don’t understand that these things they use every day are the things that they’re railing against,” she said.

    On a sizzling Friday at the end of July, Macy greeted people at a monthly downtown festival, as booths along the closed-off streets sold baked goods, homemade jewelry, hot dogs, and barbecue.

    John and Charlotte Waugh from nearby Covington set up folding chairs with a good view of the Bart Chucker Band, a local favorite alt-country group. John Waugh, 65, retired from a manufacturing job, is a big fan of Trump. Charlotte, 64, a retired educator, is not.

    John has read some of Macy’s work, he said, and thinks she’s right on the money in diagnosing the region’s problems. But while his wife plans to vote for her, he will not.

    “It’s more not just her — it’s the whole Democratic Party,” he said, saying that Democrats want boys to play girls’ sports. “I got granddaughters.”

    Up the street at her consignment shop, Jennifer Oeltjen, 75, stayed open late to take advantage of the happy festival crowd. She was thrilled when Dopesick was filming there. The crew bought clothes from her for costumes, she said, and she remembers watching a night shoot when black-clad production assistants scurried around like ninjas.

    A longtime Republican, Oeltjen worries that people nowadays expect too much help from the government. While she does not approve of the way Trump talks, she said the Democrats she sees on Fox News spend too much time battling him. She also cannot square pro-transgender policies with her religion.

    Oeltjen has read Macy’s work and watched her speak to local groups. “She’s a good person,” Oeltjen said. “If I were going to vote for a Democrat, it would be Beth.”

    But that’s not likely, she said, even though she knows very little about Cline. She intends to vote Republican this fall.

  • These 109-year-old friends say this is the secret to their longevity

    These 109-year-old friends say this is the secret to their longevity

    Dorothy Boggess starts every day the same way: with exercises in her kitchen.

    She plugs in an old boom box and hits play on the “Cha Cha Slide.” Then she stands with a hand on the counter, swinging one leg and then the other back and forth. When DJ Casper asks how low she can go, she bends her knees and sinks her hips and shimmies, laughing. On her shelf is a mug that says “109 and fabulous.”

    Reaching this age puts Boggess in an exclusive club. Just 0.03% of Americans live into their 100s. But Boggess is lucky enough that one of them is her friend of more than eight decades, Velma Long.

    Long celebrated her 109th birthday this month by inviting Boggess to church with her. (Long went to Boggess’s church for her 109th birthday, in May.) Both wore sensible shoes on their birthdays this year, but Long’s daughter noted that her mom was dancing in heels on her 100th birthday.

    Called to serve

    In the early 1940s, Boggess was in Atlanta studying social work when she decided to come to Washington to join the war effort.

    Both Boggess and Long were “Rosie the Riveters” — women who joined the workforce during World War II to help fill the factory lines, shipyards, and offices vacated by the young men sent overseas.

    “It was very exciting,” Boggess said. “I didn’t know anyone at all in Washington, D.C.” She took the train up, and a friend of a friend picked her up from Union Station, bringing her along on an errand in Baltimore before taking her home.

    “That was really exciting — to go to a whole other state. Of course, now we know Baltimore is nowhere. But to me, that was a really big deal,” Boggess said, laughing.

    Both Boggess and Long went to work as clerk typists for the government — Long for the Navy and Boggess for what was then called the War Department, earning a salary of $1,440 annually. They met their husbands through work, and their respective romances started with lunch dates.

    “We used to walk over to the Interior Department at lunchtime because it was not segregated,” Boggess said. “The food was better.”

    It was soon after that Boggess and Long met each other and became fast friends. Their husbands were cousins and were very close, so nearly every date was a double date.

    “My husband loved her husband,” Boggess said. “We spent a lot of time together and traveled everywhere.”

    Boggess and her husband were very involved in the civil rights movement, and her home is full of mementos from that era. At the time, she didn’t realize she was helping make history.

    “I was just having fun,” Boggess said.

    In the late 1990s, The Washington Post ran a story about women known as “The War Girls” for their role in World War II, but the piece referred only to white women. Boggess wrote a letter to the editor correcting the record, and it ran in the paper the following month.

    Friendship and humor

    For more than 80 years now, Boggess and Long have lived near each other in and around D.C. When they were younger, they went to exercise classes together and threw parties for the kids’ birthdays in Boggess’s backyard. It’s harder to get together as often now, but they check in by phone almost every day.

    “We’ve both lost so many close friends,” Boggess said. “It’s amazing that we’re still functioning.”

    They exercise and eat well, but when asked about the secret to their longevity, they say it’s being social. And while they’ve made many friends through church and their kids and grandkids (Long has a great-great-granddaughter, age 4), there’s something different about a friend who has known you since you were 23.

    “They’ve been friends for years,” said Kenneth Boggess, Boggess’s son. “They are close, and they can relate to one another.”

    Dorothy Boggess still makes Long laugh like no one else. But they stay engaged with the world outside, too.

    “I go out with my daughter a lot,” Long said. “She always insists that I come along. I say, ‘I’m really too old.’ She says, ‘No, you’re not. People love to see you — to see a person that’s your age.’”

    “All my friends say she’s their mom, too, now,” said Long’s daughter, Phyllis Valentine, 78.

    Both Long and Boggess have been involved with their churches, neighborhoods, social clubs, and sororities. They stay as active as possible, and Boggess learned to swim later in life, at age 69, which she said is her proudest accomplishment.

    “All I can say is I’m very proud of her,” Kenneth Boggess said of his mom. “I’m proud of the people who have supported her.”

    Both Dorothy Boggess and Long have traveled extensively since retiring from careers in social work in the 1970s: Boggess has a list of the countries she’s visited on the wall in her basement, in alphabetical order, from Argentina to Turkey. Places Long loved the most were Bermuda, Montreal, and Hawaii.

    “She loves to fly,” Valentine said of her mom. Valentine brought Long to Texas last year for a celebration at Long’s college marking the school’s 150th anniversary. “As we were descending into Austin, she was looking out the window just like a little kid. And I asked her, I said, ‘What are you thinking about?’ She said, ‘I just never thought I’d get to come back.’”

  • How the war in Iran is redrawing the global energy map

    How the war in Iran is redrawing the global energy map

    Six months after U.S.-Israeli strikes disrupted Middle Eastern fossil fuel production and turned the Strait of Hormuz into a naval battleground, the world is getting a fuller picture of how the Iran war has reshaped the economics of energy.

    A handful of new reports show how, by dramatically raising fossil-fuel prices, the conflict has also been pushing governments, companies, and consumers toward renewable energy, with a clear set of winners and losers emerging.

    Global fossil fuel importers have paid more than $330 billion in extra costs — an amount equal to Finland’s 2025 gross domestic product — since the war began on Feb. 28, according to data from the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), a Helsinki-based nonprofit. Meanwhile, higher energy prices have been a boon to a handful of oil- and gas-producing countries outside the war zone.

    Economies that had moved to ditch fossil fuels prior to the war have withstood the crisis better, too. In China, for example, renewable energy projects added since 2020 allowed the country to avoid nearly $8 billion in fossil fuel imports between March and July, CREA estimated.

    These transformations could eventually have an effect on the environment: Overall, global greenhouse gas emissions were relatively contained during the first half of the year, inching up just 0.2% compared with the same period a year earlier, according to an early analysis of emissions through mid-year 2026 by the nonprofit Climate Trace.

    “Renewables continue to grow. That does seem like good news,” said Ting So, lead analyst for Climate Trace. But he added that the volatility of disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz makes it hard to predict long-term trends.

    Winners: Clean tech and non-Gulf fossil-fuel producers

    China has emerged as a beneficiary of the realignment, leveraging its dominance in green technology manufacturing at a time when soaring oil and gas prices are boosting interest in solar panels, batteries, and electric vehicles.

    Since the start of the conflict, China has logged five consecutive months of record clean tech exports measured in dollar terms, according to BloombergNEF. In July, Chinese carmakers sold more than half a million EVs and plug-in hybrids to overseas markets, a roughly 150% increase from a year earlier.

    Oil-and-gas producers in North and South America have also reaped windfall profits. As buyers shunned Gulf suppliers, fossil fuel companies in the U.S., Canada, and Latin America ramped up production.

    While a ceasefire could erode wartime supply premiums, researchers expect some of these market shifts to persist. “The boost to Latin America’s mining sector could remain,” said Rafael Rabioglio, a BNEF analyst, in the report. As high fuel costs accelerate global electrification, demand for critical minerals such as copper and lithium will benefit major producers including Chile and Peru in the long term.

    Losers: Gulf states and import-dependent regions

    In the Persian Gulf, drone strikes and explosions have damaged key facilities, including Saudi Arabia’s largest oil refinery and a key liquefied natural gas export terminal in Qatar. Coupled with shipping bottlenecks, initial export losses across the Gulf averaged nearly $2 billion per day in March, according to an estimate from Rice University.

    Beyond lost revenue, the war also damaged as much as $58 billion worth of energy infrastructure, which requires costly repairs, according to an April estimate by consulting firm Rystad Energy. The conflict also threatens to stall the region’s transition into a greener economy. “The war has driven up the cost of debt in the region, undermining clean power project economics in the near term,” BNEF analysts said in their report.

    Import-dependent economies like Japan and South Korea, meanwhile, are suffering collateral damage. The two Asian nations, which depended on shipments through the Strait of Hormuz for most of their oil supplies prior to the Iran war, had no choice but to absorb higher fuel prices. In Africa, where many countries are net importers of refined oil products, the soaring prices have fueled a broader economic crisis. Ethiopia, for instance, recently experienced currency sell-offs, forcing the country to draw down billions of dollars in its foreign exchange reserves to defend the weakening birr.

    Accelerated transition

    The burden of higher energy prices has fallen disproportionately on developing economies. Poorer nations spent an additional 1% of their GDP absorbing the price shock, CREA found. That’s more than double the economic drag experienced by wealthier states.

    As they seek to break up with fossil fuels, African nations are scrambling to add renewable energy. The region as a whole imported 37% more solar equipment from China in the first half of 2026 than in the same period last year, BNEF data showed. The current boom has spread across the entire continent, from South Africa to Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Egypt.

    “In countries where consumers are not being well shielded from higher fuel prices, they are moving very quickly to adjust their energy consumption pattern,” said Ethan Zindler, a BNEF analyst.

    That same trend is also happening across developing Asia. For instance, in the Philippines — where initial fuel shortages prompted the government to mandate a four-day workweek to save on energy — demand for solar products has surged. In March, the country’s imports of Chinese solar equipment jumped 262% year-over-year.

    EV adoption has accelerated, too. Monthly EV sales almost doubled in the Philippines and Indonesia in June and July compared with the same period in 2025, according to BNEF. In India, monthly passenger EV sales reached 30,000 units in those two months, up from fewer than 20,000 units last year.

    In the first half of 2026, slight emissions reductions by China and the U.S., the world’s largest polluters, were balanced out by increases in India and Brazil, the Climate Trace analysis found.

    At the same time, fears that this year’s energy-market disruptions would lead to a major near-term increase in coal-fired power did not become a reality, according to the results. Instead, over the first six months of the year, renewable energy actually expanded more quickly, Climate Trace’s So said.

    “That’s a positive development that maybe not everyone thought” would happen, he said.