đ There are 39 days until Election Day.
Welcome to the heart of election season.
Pennsylvania is â once again â at the center of the political universe, and our team is set to bring you the latest as we cover the final stretch of the campaigns from Philadelphia to Washington, D.C. and across Pennsylvania. Weâre focusing on the competitive U.S. House races, the battle for the governorâs mansion, and legislative districts across the Keystone State as Democrats fight for control in Harrisburg and in Congress.
đ€ Iâm Sam Janesch, The Inquirerâs national political reporter. Iâll be your host this week as we dig into how Pennsylvaniaâs always-newsworthy Democratic senator is inserting himself into a campaign season where heâs not even on the ballot. We also have a first look at an unusual new spending effort on behalf of U.S. Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick, who is fighting to keep his seat as the last Republican representing the region in Congress, and new insight into Gov. Josh Shapiroâs polling and money advantages.
In this edition:
đłïž A Democrat in name only: For the first time, a plurality of likely Pennsylvania voters view U.S. Sen. John Fetterman negatively.
đłïž Close to home: Fitzpatrick is the least loyal House Republican to President Donald Trump, but heâs still overwhelmingly aligned with the president and his party.
đłïž Is this thing on?: Republican Stacy Garrity remains largely unknown in the state, even to a quarter of GOP voters, as Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiroâs lead continues to grow.
â Sam Janesch, Michelle Baruchman, Fallon Roth, Gillian McGoldrick (pa2026@inquirer.com)
The latest
- Pennsylvania voters are giving President Donald Trump worse grades on economic issues as the midterms near. And as gas prices hit $4.55 in Philadelphia, even his 2024 supporters are unhappy.
- Shapiro has raised $60 million for his reelection, but any leftover money canât be directly transferred to a 2028 presidential campaign â not that he has declared his candidacy for one, anyway.
- Only one Pennsylvania Republican received a video shoutout from Trump in his Truth Social endorsement dump last week â and itâs the candidate with perhaps the longest shot of winning. Trump called Garrity âreally special,â while slamming Shapiro as a governor who âdoes not have what it takes.â Meanwhile, U.S. Rep. Ryan Mackenzie is still counting on Trumpâs support to help him win in the Lehigh Valley.
- Outside the midterm elections, another type of political campaign was underway to free convicted former Philadelphia labor leader John Dougherty, widely known as Johnny Doc, from prison. But it was a group of Republicans, including Trump, who ultimately aided the longtime Democratic power brokerâs release.
Data dive
đ U.S. Sen. John Fetterman has come a long way from the Bernie Sanders-loving, progressive populist that made him a political sensation starting about a decade ago â at least according to the Pennsylvania voters who elevated him to national prominence.
Four years after his election to the U.S. Senate, a majority of the stateâs likely voters think of him as a Republican, according to a new poll conducted by Siena University on behalf of The Inquirer and the New York Times.
Our polling data shows nearly three-quarters of Democrats think of Fetterman as a Republican. About half of Republicans feel the same way.

Even though Fetterman has said he will not change parties, that perception could have major implications. Democrats need to net at least four seats to capture the Senate majority starting in January. If they win a slim majority, Fettermanâs wildcard nature could be a roadblock as the party looks to act as a check on Trump in the final two years of his term.
Democrats in Washington arenât sweating it. Well, at least not publicly.
âNo,â U.S. Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, a New York Democrat and chair of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, said quickly when The Inquirer asked her this week if she or her colleagues are concerned about Fettermanâs role in a narrow majority.
âIâm very grateful that Sen. Fetterman is serving in the U.S. Senate as a Democrat, and I think he will continue to do so,â Gillibrand said.
Campaign scrapple
đș Exclusive: A top environmental organization is throwing $250,000 toward new digital ads and a mail program supporting Fitzpatrick as he fends off a challenge from Democrat Bob Harvie in the swingy Bucks County-based congressional district that could prove key to flipping party control of the House this fall.
Fitzpatrick is the only House GOP candidate currently receiving ad support from EDF Action Votes, a super PAC that supports the goals of the Environmental Defense Action Fund.

Historically Democratic-aligned groups, like environmental orgs and labor unions, have felt comfortable continuing â or offering new â support for Fitzpatrick despite a national political landscape that has become increasingly unfavorable for Republicans. The Bucks County lawmaker has been known to separate himself from his conference and is the least loyal House Republican to Trump and his party.
But, according to our recent analysis, heâs still on the president and the GOPâs side most of the time.
đ What weâre watching
đŽ The Pennsylvania Republican Partyâs state committee will meet in Pittsburgh this weekend. The committee cleared the field for Garrity as the partyâs nominee by endorsing her last September. But since then, sheâs struggled across the board â with fundraising, in polls, and more. Politics reporter Michelle Baruchman will be there, hoping to hear from attendees about the partyâs outlook heading into November.
đ© Mail ballots have already begun hitting mailboxes across Pennsylvania, with nearly 14,000 already returned.
đŹ A total of 999,280 mail or absentee ballots have been requested as of Thursday, Sept. 24, according to Pennsylvania Department of State data.
- The breakdown:
Quote of the week

Shapiro, Pennsylvaniaâs incumbent Democratic governor, is up 21 points over Garrity, according to a new poll conducted by The Inquirer, the New York Times, and Siena University. He also announced a $13.3 million haul this summer and $31 million spent â far outpacing Garrityâs $1.8 million total raised and $1.5 million spent since June.
As Levy says, Shapiro is highly favored to win in November, with Cook Political Report shifting the race to âSolid Democrat,â just two years after Trump won the state.
đ All this election news, and can you believe we still have more than a month to go? You can follow The Inquirer politics teamâs coverage here, and weâll see you in your inbox next Friday.
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