Public health officials are advising South Jersey residents to be alert and avoid wild animals after a report of a rabid raccoon that bit a man in Gloucester County last weekend.
The Glassboro resident told 6abc Wednesday that the wild animal charged him outside of his home and bit the front of his leg before being captured and testing positive for rabies.
Gloucester County posted an alert on social media Wednesday reminding residents to make sure their pets are up to date on their rabies vaccinations and to avoid contact with wildlife. County officials did not respond to questions about the alleged attack Thursday.
“Rabies is a serious disease, but it is preventable,” the county wrote. “If you see a wild animal acting unusual; such as appearing aggressive, unafraid of people, drooling, or unsteady; keep your distance and report it to your local health department or animal control.”
Anyone bitten or scratched by a wild animal should wash the area with soap and water, seek medical attention, and contact local animal control or health officials, the county advised.
6abc reported that authorities said the infected animal involved in the attack was seen fighting with another raccoon before it was captured, and that the county is now working to locate the potentially rabid animal.
Sen. Andy Kim wants to get to the bottom of why President Donald Trump rejected New Jersey’s request for FEMA aid over a record-breaking snowstorm earlier this year.
Winter Storm Hernando, a massive blizzard, hit New Jersey and other Northeastern states hard in February. New Jersey submitted an $84 million disaster request after tallying the damage in the weeks that followed.
The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) this month rejected New Jersey’s request as partof $227 million in disaster aid requests from four Democratic-led states that were denied, Politico reported Wednesday.
The decision came from Trump after regional FEMA offices and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) determined that the states met the required thresholds to receive aid, according to the report, which cited a former FEMA official calling the move to override the agencies unconventional.
Kim said in an interview Thursday that Americans need “absolute assurance” that FEMA decisions won’t be based on “the whims of the president.”
”I think we should all just declaratively be able to say that partisan politics does not belong in disaster response … I would hope that every single public servant, from the White House to FEMA to the Capitol, believes that,” he said.
Sen. Andy Kim speaks with Naimah Rutling, executive chef at Cathedral Kitchen in Camden, N.J., during a visit this month. Tyger Williams / Staff Photographer
The South Jersey Democrat is the ranking member on the subcommittee that oversees FEMA, the federal agency responsible for doling out aid to communities hit by disaster.
The president must declare a disaster in order for states to access FEMA aid — and the same goes for individual assistance. Democrats have in recent weeks raised concerns that Trump has penalized blue states in these decisions.
A 16-page NOAA report indicated snowfall records in seven counties in the state, and a 12-page spreadsheet developed by FEMA and New Jersey documented the $84.4 million in costs, which were primarily for snow removal, Politico reported.
The National Weather Service reported blizzards in several counties, including in Southeast Burlington County and other parts of South Jersey. The blizzard caused disruptions to the region such as thousands going without power, school closures, and transit disruptions.
Sean Higgins, a spokesperson for New Jersey Gov. Mikie Sherrill, said the state’s request included costs incurred by the state’s municipalities and counties. He said Sherrill’s administration will appeal the denial.
“Without that aid, our local governments will be stuck with the costs of an unprecedented snowstorm that didn’t care about political boundaries … Governor Sherrill will continue to fight for every dime that New Jerseyans are owed, regardless of political party,” Higgins said in a statement.
FEMA’s cost threshold for public assistance for New Jersey is about $18 million, according to the New Jersey Office of Emergency Management, far below the assessed damage from the storm.
FEMAdid not respond to an inquiry about the rejection on Thursday, but Kim said the agencysaid it disagreed that New Jersey met the threshold.
White House spokesperson Abigail Jackson has told news outlets that Trump is ensuring FEMA aid is used “to supplement — not substitute” states’ “obligation to respond to and recover from disasters.”
The South Jersey senator said he has “concerns” that the rejection was political but he can’t say for sure.
“I understand that you know, the federal government’s not supposed to cover everything for everything, but … this was a situation of record snowfall in wide swaths of New Jersey and, frankly, across the country,” Kim said.
If the state’sappeal isn’t successful, Kim said he has “more tools in my toolbox to try to get my state the funding they deserve” but declined to share what those would be, saying it’s part of a “broader negotiation.”
President Donald Trump speaks in the Oval Office of the White House Wednesday, July 29, 2026, in Washington. (AP Photo/Julia Demaree Nikhinson)Julia Demaree Nikhinson
The White House has maintained that Trump’s rejections have not been political. But Kim and other Democrats have cited a March Politico report that found Trump’s second administration rejected disaster aid for Democratic-run states at the highest rate in the 47 years that FEMA has existed.
The rejections underscore bigger questions of the future of FEMA. Trump previously called for the dismantling of FEMA before changing course, but his advisers have recommended an overhaul of the agency that would put more responsibility on states, NPR reported.
Trump has also caused concern among Democrats for withholding FEMA’s Homeland Security grants from states that do not comply with his administration’s requests for unredacted voter data, including New Jersey and Pennsylvania.
Joseph Walsh, a spokesperson for the New Jersey Office of Emergency Management, said New Jersey is still in the process of “collecting and validating” the assessed flood damage. Once that’s complete, the state will decide on whether to submit a request.
“Every single state is prone to some type of disaster, and so I just don’t want a situation where we’re pitting the states against each other … I hope we can all agree that we want to be there for each other in their time of need,” he said.
An Atlantic City lifeguard has been charged with attempting to pay for sex with who he believed to be an underage girl but who turned out to be an undercover detective, the Camden County Prosecutor’s Office said Thursday.
Stephen M. Pagnoni, of Egg Harbor Township, was arrested this week and was being held at the Camden County Correctional Facility pending a detention hearing, Camden County Prosecutor Grace C. MacAulay said.
Pagnoni, who has worked for the Atlantic City Beach Patrol for around 20 years, was suspended from his position, MacAulay said.
On Tuesday, Pagnoni allegedly began communicating online with a person he believed was a 15-year-old girl, but who was in fact a detective with the Camden County Prosecutor’s Office High Tech Crimes Unit, MacAulay said.
During the conversation, Pagnoni allegedly arranged to meet the supposed teen girl at a park in Cherry Hill for sex in exchange for money, MacAulay said.
After he arrived at the location, MacAulay said, Pagnoni was taken into custody by Cherry Hill police and members of the prosecutor’s office.
Pagnoni was charged with first-degree attempted manufacturing of child sexual abuse material, second-degree attempting to lure a child, second-degree attempted sexual assault of a minor, second-degree attempted prostitution with a minor, and related offenses.
In an emailed statement, the Atlantic City Department of Public Safety said it was aware of the criminal charges against Pagnoni.
“Based upon those charges, the lifeguard has been suspended from duty pending the outcome of the criminal investigation. The department will continue to monitor the investigation and will take any additional administrative action that may be appropriate as the matter proceeds,” the agency said.
Anyone with information that could be helpful to the investigation can contact Sgt. John Cochran of the Camden County Prosecutor’s Office High Tech Crimes Unit at 856-225-8826. Tips may also be sent to CAMDEN.TIPS.
Five Camden County towns could owe some current and former property owners more than half a million dollars collectively as part of a proposed settlement in a class-action lawsuit involving vacant and abandoned properties.
The case alleges that the vacant and abandoned property registration programs previously operated in Barrington, Bellmawr, Runnemede, Voorhees, and Gloucester Township violated New Jersey law. These programs were in place largely to prevent blight by funding the town’s upkeep of vacant properties, but the suit alleges that for a time, the towns were collecting fees unlawfully.
Many of the property owners who were forced to pay fees to these programs had never actually abandoned or vacated their homes, the suit alleges, and the towns unlawfully earned a revenue from these fees as a result.
The settlement proposes a fund of about $545,600. The amount contributed by each town varies based on the total amount collected through program fees, said Stephen DeNittis, an attorney representing plaintiffs in the case.
Here is how much each town will have to pay if the settlement is approved:
Gloucester Township: $280,000
Runnemede Borough: $111,300
Voorhees Township: $94,120.43
Bellmawr Borough: $33,932.50
Barrington Borough: $26,271.57
Because it is a class-action lawsuit, the proposed settlement still needs to be approved by a court, DeNittis said.
A hearing is scheduled for Aug. 14, and if preliminary approval is granted, notices will be sent out within 30 days informing other potential claimants of the case and providing instructions on how to file a claim if they paid into their town’s vacant property program between 2018 and 2022.
Claimants can file for a simple refund of $200, or they could receive 60% of the total amount they paid into the program if they can provide sufficient documentation and proof of payment, DeNittis said.
As part of the settlement, the towns do not admit any liability or wrongdoing.
Officials with both Voorhees Township and Runnemede Borough independently declined to comment on the case, saying they do not publicly discuss litigation. The other municipalities named in the lawsuit did not respond to a request for comment.
Assuming the court grants preliminary approval of the settlement in August, DeNittis said, a final approval hearing will likely be held later this fall.
Pennsylvanian e-bikers headed to the Shore, get ready for your appointment with New Jersey’s Motor Vehicle Commission.
In a reversal, the state agency now says out-of-state residents should register their e-bikes in New Jersey in order to legally ride them in New Jersey.
But now the MVC says that because New Jersey is the only state that requires e-bikes to be registered, out-of-state e-bikers should follow New Jersey’s law.
Connolly says as of July 28, New Jersey had issued 9,410 e-bike registrations; of those, 182 were for out-of-state residents.
“MVC is now offering to register e-bikes for out-of-state residents so that they can lawfully ride their bikes in NJ,” Connolly said in a statement e-mailed to the Inquirer.
”Out-of-state visitors who are sixteen or older can also rent a low-speed e-bike from rental companies operating under a contract with a local government, which is an exception to the registration requirement under the e-bike law.”
Properly registered e-bikes will display a sticker issued by the MVC.
The law has caused confusion among riders, bike-shop owners, and law enforcement since its adoption in January. After a six-month grace period, the state went into enforcement mode July 19.
The law requires all riders to wear helmets, forbids riders under the age of 15, and requires insurance for higher-speed classified electric bikes. The classification for basic e-bikes is for pedal-assisted electric bicycles with a maximum speed of 20 mph.
Out-of-state riders without a driver’s license are not permitted to ride an e-bike in New Jersey, according to the Motor Vehicle Commission, which has been embroiled in a national controversy since it was revealed that thousands of non-U.S. citizens were automatically registered to vote while obtaining driver’s licenses in New Jersey.
For non-New Jersey e-bikers, the process for e-bike registration will be the same as for residents, but out-of-staters can use out-of-state proof of identification and register the e-bike with an out-of-state address.
“More boring by a mile?” That was the assessment of one Facebook user after Avalon shut down a live music gig at Gully’s by the band Three and One, shortly after 8 p.m. on July 17.
Someone complained about the noise, and Avalon police arrived on Dune Drive outside Gully’s, the lively new bar and restaurant that serves a Craig LaBan-approved “clothesline of candied bacon that dangles over a tasty plate of grits.”
Neighbors on 27th Street, meanwhile, tried to explain they weren’t against Gully’s — or even live music — but that the noise from the outdoor patio, either from live bands or amplified games like the Monday minnow races, were a “disruptive intrusion,” up and down the block.
It turns out that all of Avalon’s liquor licenses contain a special condition that permits outdoor music between noon and 8 p.m. Gully’s is now appealing that restriction through the state Division of Alcoholic Beverage Control, arguing that it’s arbitrary and capricious, and an abuse of Avalon’s discretion. The town has indicated it wants to be reasonable and figure out a solution. One council member spoke of his love for Gully’s and said, “We do appreciate your business and what you’ve done there.”
Have a listen to Three and One here, or check them out again this Friday at Gully’s, with a new daytime slot: 4 p.m. to 8 p.m.
📮 Do you think it’s reasonable for Avalon to limit outdoor music at bars to between noon and 8 p.m.? Or should businesses be given more leeway to thrive during the summer? How much say should people who live near commercial establishments have, especially during the summer? Let me know what you think by replying to this email, and I’ll include your most interesting responses in a future newsletter.
Have ideas or news tips, memories or pet peeves about the Shore? Send them to me here.
🫨 It’s been another crazy week of storms, but the weekend looks decent.
The band Three and One packs up at Gully’s in Avalon shortly after 8 p.m. July 17, 2026, after a noise complaint. The liquor licenses issued by Avalon to bars prohibits live music after 8 p.m., but Gully’s has appealed that restriction to the state N.J. Division of Alcoholic Beverage Control. The band was scheduled to play until 10 p.m.Kate Nunan
🧠 Trivia time
Lots of love for the Bongo Room, which was the Avalon bar that closed 39 years ago this summer and featured the Greaseband on Sunday nights. Betsy Strittmatter was first with the answer.
This week:
This legendary Ventnor ice cream and water ice shop’s recipes — particularly its black cherry water ice — continue on in another location, the North Beach Creamery.
Are the recipes originally from:
A. Custard’s Last Stand
B. Springer’s
C. Willow’s Way
D. Mento’s
If you think you know the answer, email us here. First one gets a shout-out.
More of your thoughts on: Sea Isle and the changing Shore
As a retiree I find it magical to live here year round. Sea Isle truly is a City for All Seasons! Yes, people sold their quaintcottages and they are now replaced by 6 bedroom homes. But is that so bad? Large extended families get to enjoy a taste of beach life for a week or two, families get to bond, cousins get to play together and we all happily co-exist. Yes, some people have beautiful multimillion dollar homes …. but is that so bad? Our restaurants and shops stay prosperous and our town is thriving. Sure, we need more parking, but if people are honest, it is mainly in the busy summer season. We need more trees? Look around people, there are new young trees planted every year and right now the Crepe myrtles are blooming beautifully. Personally I applaud the growth and embrace the change and credit our community leaders for keeping our shoreline pristine and our beaches replenished!
Reader Joseph Higgins brings us back down to earth.
All of the shore towns are out pricing blue collar workers. My parents bought a trailer for $30,000 in 2000 outside of Wildwood Crest in Shawcrest. The land rental fees have climbed from $3,000 to $7,900 per year. The trailer next door is currently listed for $275,000 with land rental fees of $11,400. The working man’s shore vacation spot is quickly disappearing.
Ask Down the Shore:
We put the dress code question to our Shore Line text group (still time to join us here). There was a deluge of responses!
Here’s a quick sample:
“Down the shore everything’s alright.” Sure it’s OK to wear beach attire (not sandy though, and do brush ur hair 😉)”
“I don’t care how much money you have. Make an effort, for the sake of the restaurant staff and other guests, to put on clean shorts and a polo for men and a cute cover up/sundress for women. If you can’t do that, then there’s always takeout.”
“Some people, when they come to the beach, lose or abandon their sense of propriety. Decent, casual attire respects the restaurant and other diners.”
Your Shore memory
My sampling of Ocean City pizza triggered this memory from Susan Carlbaugh.
As a Roxborough girl who lives in Baltimore now, reading your tribute to pizza on Ocean City’s boardwalk hit every nostalgia button possible! In my teen years, our friend ran the rides in Wonderland and that saved our cash for the rest of the night including the slice of pizza. Life was good!
We knew it as “Mack” & Manco’s and it was always a stop on our night on the boardwalk. After waiting for my Grandma to get out of the Music Pier’s nightly performance, and before we left the ‘boards, it included a nightcap of fresh-squeezed orange juice from Litterer’s!
Alex’s was our Roxborough home pizza shop. I can smell all of them right now. You are bringing tears to my eyes!
One day after Gov. Mikie Sherrill refused to turn over information about the thousands of noncitizens who were mistakenly registered to vote to the U.S. Department of Justice, a federal judge dismissed a lawsuit from President Donald Trump’s administration to obtain the state’s unredacted voter records.
A U.S. District judge ruled Wednesday that the Department of Justice does not have the authority to force New Jersey to give up its unredacted records.
The DOJ tried to use as leverage New Jersey’s disclosure last week that thousands of noncitizens were mistakenly registered to vote because of a software glitch in the motor vehicle system. It didn’t work.
The federal case predates last week’s news, and the ruling came one day after Sherrill formally told the DOJ that she would not release personal information about the noncitizens who were improperly registered.
What’s next? The Trump administration will likely appeal the case.
It’s pretty empty inside the building that was the Brio Italian Grille in Cherry Hill.
A sign on the restaurant entrance reads: “We have made the difficult decision to permanently close our Brio location in Cherry Hill. We are grateful for the opportunity to have served this community and are committed to supporting our team members during this transition.”
The abrupt closure comes after staff emphasized that it was still open as recently as last month. Rumors about the restaurant shutting its doors have been swirling since May.
A guard at a federal prison in Fort Dix had a sexual relationship with a prisoner for about a year, according to federal authorities. She was charged this week with sexual abuse of a person in custody.
A Camden man was arrested after a K-9 dog found a phone allegedly used to solicit explicit photos from a 7-year-old girl, according to Camden County Prosecutor Grace C. MacAuley.
An incarcerated man in Trenton is suing the state to block corrections officials from forcing prisoners to give up their purchased tablet electronics. The civil rights lawsuit comes after the state Department of Corrections switched communications tech providers. The new company does not allow prisoners to buy tablets outright and instead provides loaners for free, but requires a subscription model to use their content, New Jersey Monitor reports.
Award-winning former Inquirer photojournalist Akira Suwa of Laurel Springs, 84, died at his home this month due to complications from dementia. In addition to his photography, he is known for his mentorship, as well as his lifelong love of gardening.
🎄 Oaklyn Final Fridays: This monthly street festival features food, live music, and a variety of vendors. This upcoming Friday, get in the festive spirit and celebrate a belated Christmas in July. ⏰ Friday, July 31, 4:30-9 p.m. 💵 Pay as you go 📍 West Clinton Avenue, Oaklyn
🎤 Friday Night Live Music at Wenonah Lake:Hear from musical acts Lost Art, Arthur Herrmann, and Nonsense Maneuver. ⏰ Friday, July 31, 5 p.m 💵 $8 (cash only), free with membership 📍 North Jefferson Avenue and West Maple Street, Wenonah
🕺 80s and 90s Party:Indulge in nostalgia with throwback hip hop and R&B music and dance the night away. ⏰ Saturday, Aug. 1, 6-10 p.m. 💵 $24.71 📍 Vera, Cherry Hill
📚 Reading: University of Pennsylvania professor Emily Wilson’s translation of The Odyssey after her scathing review of Christopher Nolan’s film adaptation.
AVALON, N.J. — For Three and One singer and guitarist Gus Thompson, 25, the music died on Dune Drive shortly after 8 p.m. on Friday, July 17.
“We noticed the police out front,” the band’s front man said in a phone interview, recalling the night at Avalon’s new bar and restaurant with a patio for live music and other events. “Our set was ending very soon, so we didn’t think much of it. The owner said we’re being shut down. He said no more music.”
The band was scheduled to play until 10 p.m., and had finished the early set with Thompson’s original song “No Idea,” but Avalon’s restrictions on Gully’s and all other bars in town prohibit any outdoor music after 8 p.m.
Out in the crowd, Kate Nunan was incensed. At 8:36 p.m., she posted a picture of the band breaking down its setup in the Facebook Group Seven Mile Shenanigans, and wrote, “WTH is wrong with Avalon??? Shutting down a band at 8:30 because of a noise complaint??”
The outrage has only grown, spilling over into a July 22 council meeting, with residents expressing concern that Avalon, long a place of late nights and live music, but now increasingly a place of private clubs and multimillion-dollar houses, was in danger of losing its small businesses and essential character.
Gully’s has appealed the special conditions of Avalon’s liquor license to the state’s Division of Alcoholic Beverage Control, saying the ban on outdoor music after 8 p.m. is “arbitrary, capricious and unreasonable.”
At the council meeting, locals like Merri Jones, who said she was a second-generation graduate of Avalon Elementary, stuck up for Gully’s, which replaced the Black Cactus restaurant with a restaurant touting “old school beachy vibes.” (Inquirer restaurant critic Craig LaBan praised its “clothesline of candied bacon.“)
The hanging candied bacon served over grits and Gully’s blooming potato on Wednesday, June 17, 2026, in Avalon, N.J.Monica Herndon / Staff Photographer
“They’re a breath of fresh air,” she told the council, which had been cautioned by Nicole Curio, the municipal solicitor, not to respond to comments about Gully’s since the liquor license restrictions were now a legal action with the state ABC, a division of the Office of the Attorney General.
“It’s just a couple more hours to let them make their money,” she said. “We support it. A lot of locals do as well.”
But neighbors on the 100 block of 27th Street, which has Gully’s at one end and Wawa on the other, and regularly idling 18-wheelers making deliveries to both, pleaded their case about the noise from Gully’s, including the amplified music and games like its Monday Minnow Races announced over a loudspeaker.
Larry Hayes said he lives 450 feet from Gully’s, but the sound is causing an “unreasonable disruptive intrusion into our quiet enjoyment of our home.” The Avalon noise ordinance restricts any amplified sound that’s audible more than 50 feet away, he noted.
The patio at Gully’s on Wednesday, June 17, 2026, in Avalon, N.J.Monica Herndon / Staff Photographer
“We want to be good neighbors,” said neighbor Matt Tumasz. “We love the idea that there’s a family restaurant. But when you have a five-piece band playing and blasting music, and speakers that are 15 feet in the air, it’s just a little bit out of control.”
Gully’s owner Beth Pearce did not respond to several messages from The Inquirer.
On Facebook, Pearce posted: “From the beginning, our goal has been simple: to create a place where neighbors, families, visitors, and friends can come together and make memories.
“We have tremendous respect for the role of our local officials,” she wrote. “We remain committed to working collaboratively, being good neighbors, and contributing positively to our community.”
At the council meeting, she noted that several council members had patronized Gully’s with their families (and one admitted to being a fan during the council meeting).
“The hope is we’re going to elevate all businesses,” Pearce said. She pledged to try to “figure out what the appropriate sound level is.”
The exterior of Gully’s on Wednesday, June 17, 2026, in Avalon, N.J.Monica Herndon / Staff Photographer
“I think we can find something where we can thrive together,” she said. “All we’re asking for is the same conditions as similar businesses within the district.”
In an email, Avalon administrator Scott Wahl noted that the special conditions that permit outdoor music only between noon and 8 p.m. were adopted in June by council and apply to all seven holders of liquor licenses in Avalon, including the Union League, which took over the Whitebrier last year.
Still, Wahl said, “I believe the Borough Council will attempt to revisit the issue to balance the interests of the business community and the residential community.
“I think it’s fair to say both sides want to figure this out collaboratively,” he said.
Three and One will be back at Gully’s this Friday. Thompson said the owners initially assured them the usual 6 p.m. to 10 p.m. gig would be fine but have since asked them to play from 4 p.m. to 8 p.m.
A 36-year-old Camden man was charged with soliciting sexually explicit photos from a 7-year-old girl after a specially trained K-9 dog found the phone the man allegedly used to message the victim, Camden County Prosecutor Grace C. MacAulay said Wednesday.
Elmer Lao was arrested on July 22 after a search was conducted at his residence and the phone was discovered in his bedroom by a K-9 dog named Rookie, who is trained to detect electronic devices, MacAulay said.
Lao was charged with second-degree attempted manufacturing of child sexual abuse material and third-degree endangering the welfare of a child. He was being held at the Camden County Correctional Facility pending a detention hearing, MacAulay said.
On July 20, the special victims and high-tech crimes units of the prosecutor’s office began the investigation after the 7-year-old girl disclosed that a man had begun sending her messages on TikTok and by text message, MacAulay said.
Investigators determined that Lao allegedly engaged in messaging conversations with the girl, whom he knew to be 7 years old, MacAulay said.
Lao allegedly sent nude videos of himself to the girl and requested that the girl send nude photos of herself in return, MacAulay said.
“Predators often use social media and messaging apps to target children, making parental involvement more important than ever,” MacAulay said in a statement.
“I urge every parent to regularly monitor their child’s messages on TikTok and other social media platforms and to have ongoing conversations about online safety and the risks of communicating with strangers,” MacAulay said.
Anyone with information that could be helpful to the investigation can contact Detective Jessica Minniti of the Camden County Prosecutor’s Office Special Victims Unit at 856-225-8537. Tips may also be sent to CAMDEN.TIPS.
The smartphone alerts and the battery of weather watches and warnings were chilling. But they failed to capture what actually happened in the immediate Philadelphia area.
As it turned out Tuesday, not all that much happened, beyond a beneficial rainfall, some flashbulb lightning, and wind gusts that officially did not get past 34 mph. Heavy rains hammered Upper Bucks County, but around Philly, creeks behaved and flooding reports were isolated, even as damaging storms struck to the north and south of the region.
As so often occurs with summer thunderstorm outbreaks — not to mention winter storms — we learned science is playing catch-up with the atmosphere. That was evident Tuesday night, and if you feel as though you’ve seen this movie before, the forecasts and the outcomes were similar on July 18 and 21.
And expect recurrences — and surprise storms — even if the climate stops changing.
The atmosphere still is jealously guarding some of its most important secrets, said Bill Bunting, deputy director of the federal Storm Prediction Center, the national house of mayhem in Norman, Okla., that is responsible for all the severe-storm and tornado watches.
In his 40-plus years in the storm-forecasting business, Bunting said,“I have seen remarkable progress, but we’re nowhere near perfection. In the end, the science has its limitations.”
About the Tuesday night storms
Life is unfair, and that works both ways. The Philly region has had its share of storm ambushes historically, and as for what did not happen in and around the city Tuesday, “we’ll consider that a much more fortunate outcome than what could have been,” said Mike Lee, meteorologist at the National Weather Service office in Mount Holly.
The outcome was similar to that of July 18 and July 21, when the menu of threats — wind, possible floods and tornadoes, lightning — was about the same. The gusts on the 18th did not get above 35 mph at Philadelphia International Airport, andthey did not get above 30 mph on the 21st.
Bunting said this week’s storms were particularly problematical meteorologically. “The wind fields were quite strong” in the upper atmosphere, he said. “That environment was not one to mess around with.”
It was as though the system had wandered in from a different season, when cooler temperatures create sharp temperature contrasts that drive storm development,Lee’s colleague Patrick O’Hara said.
At 12:50 p.m., the storm center had seen enough to issue a broad-brush severe-thunderstorm watch that covered a huge swath of the Mid-Atlantic region, including much of Pennsylvania and all of New Jersey and Delaware.
A tornado watch followed a few hours later.
The Mount Holly office issued two tornado warnings for the Philly area — including one covering Wilmington and Chester City.
However, the two twisters verified by the Mount Holly office occurred in Talbot County, Md.
The heaviest rains — in some cases over 4 inches in Quakertown — mostly were confined well to the north of Philly. Officially, 0.72 inches of rain was measured at PHL.
Wind-damage and flooding reports around the Philly area were sparse, although Bunting advised it can take days following a storm to get an accurate assessment of impacts.
The future of thunderstorm forecasting
Bunting suggested that complaints about forecast accuracy could be viewed as forms of flattery, since they well from the public’s expectations that, in turn, well from advances in forecasting.
In 1985, Bunting recalled,he was working with one computer-model output that he received via a fax machine, and observation tools primitive by today’s standards.
But forecasting the development and movement of thunderstorms remains one of the great challenges of meteorology, and it is inevitable that storms are not going to materialize in some areas that are under a storm watch.
“You don’t now exactly where those storms will organize into a cluster, or fast-moving line segment,” he said. “So you have to put larger areas on notice.”
A wild card in any cluster or line of storms would be renegade, isolated storms, the kind that are apt to spin up a tornado, Bunting said.
For any given storm, he said, “until it forms in a larger area with similar conditions, it’s hard to pinpoint the risk.”
What would it take to pinpoint the risks? Improved understanding of storm physics, improved remote-sensing capabilities, and more powerful models, Bunting said.
“It is not a trivial challenge,” he said. “The decisions are not going to be perfect.”
That is not necessarily a bad development, he added.
“Sometimes I wonder what it would be like if we knew what the weather would be in great detail, weeks and months advance,” he said. “It seems to me it would get kind of old.”
