The smartphone alerts and the battery of weather watches and warnings were chilling. But they failed to capture what actually happened in the immediate Philadelphia area.
As it turned out Tuesday, not all that much happened, beyond a beneficial rainfall, some flashbulb lightning, and wind gusts that officially did not get past 34 mph. Heavy rains hammered Upper Bucks County, but around Philly, creeks behaved and flooding reports were isolated, even as damaging storms struck to the north and south of the region.
As so often occurs with summer thunderstorm outbreaks — not to mention winter storms — we learned science is playing catch-up with the atmosphere. That was evident Tuesday night, and if you feel as though you’ve seen this movie before, the forecasts and the outcomes were similar on July 18 and 21.
And expect recurrences — and surprise storms — even if the climate stops changing.
The atmosphere still is jealously guarding some of its most important secrets, said Bill Bunting, deputy director of the federal Storm Prediction Center, the national house of mayhem in Norman, Okla., that is responsible for all the severe-storm and tornado watches.
In his 40-plus years in the storm-forecasting business, Bunting said,“I have seen remarkable progress, but we’re nowhere near perfection. In the end, the science has its limitations.”
About the Tuesday night storms
Life is unfair, and that works both ways. The Philly region has had its share of storm ambushes historically, and as for what did not happen in and around the city Tuesday, “we’ll consider that a much more fortunate outcome than what could have been,” said Mike Lee, meteorologist at the National Weather Service office in Mount Holly.
The outcome was similar to that of July 18 and July 21, when the menu of threats — wind, possible floods and tornadoes, lightning — was about the same. The gusts on the 18th did not get above 35 mph at Philadelphia International Airport, andthey did not get above 30 mph on the 21st.
Bunting said this week’s storms were particularly problematical meteorologically. “The wind fields were quite strong” in the upper atmosphere, he said. “That environment was not one to mess around with.”
It was as though the system had wandered in from a different season, when cooler temperatures create sharp temperature contrasts that drive storm development,Lee’s colleague Patrick O’Hara said.
At 12:50 p.m., the storm center had seen enough to issue a broad-brush severe-thunderstorm watch that covered a huge swath of the Mid-Atlantic region, including much of Pennsylvania and all of New Jersey and Delaware.
A tornado watch followed a few hours later.
The Mount Holly office issued two tornado warnings for the Philly area — including one covering Wilmington and Chester City.
However, the two twisters verified by the Mount Holly office occurred in Talbot County, Md.
The heaviest rains — in some cases over 4 inches in Quakertown — mostly were confined well to the north of Philly. Officially, 0.72 inches of rain was measured at PHL.
Wind-damage and flooding reports around the Philly area were sparse, although Bunting advised it can take days following a storm to get an accurate assessment of impacts.
The future of thunderstorm forecasting
Bunting suggested that complaints about forecast accuracy could be viewed as forms of flattery, since they well from the public’s expectations that, in turn, well from advances in forecasting.
In 1985, Bunting recalled,he was working with one computer-model output that he received via a fax machine, and observation tools primitive by today’s standards.
But forecasting the development and movement of thunderstorms remains one of the great challenges of meteorology, and it is inevitable that storms are not going to materialize in some areas that are under a storm watch.
“You don’t now exactly where those storms will organize into a cluster, or fast-moving line segment,” he said. “So you have to put larger areas on notice.”
A wild card in any cluster or line of storms would be renegade, isolated storms, the kind that are apt to spin up a tornado, Bunting said.
For any given storm, he said, “until it forms in a larger area with similar conditions, it’s hard to pinpoint the risk.”
What would it take to pinpoint the risks? Improved understanding of storm physics, improved remote-sensing capabilities, and more powerful models, Bunting said.
“It is not a trivial challenge,” he said. “The decisions are not going to be perfect.”
That is not necessarily a bad development, he added.
“Sometimes I wonder what it would be like if we knew what the weather would be in great detail, weeks and months advance,” he said. “It seems to me it would get kind of old.”
With the atmosphere behaving like a shaken bottle of champagne, potent storms crossed the Philly region Tuesday night, prompting tornado and flood warnings.
The National Weather Service issued tornado warnings for parts of Chester and Delaware Counties and northern Delaware. The warning area included Chester city and Wilmington, where a funnel cloud reportedly was sighted, the weather service said.
It was not yet known if any twisters had touched down.
The federal Storm Prediction Center, which issued the general twister advisory, also had the entire region under a severe thunderstorm watch until 10 p.m.
The weather service also had posted numerous flash-flood and severe-storm warnings. The agency posted a report of “multiple” homes flooded in West Brandywine Township, Chester County,
Rainfall this summer has been maddeningly capricious, but this time it appeared that the entire region is going to win some share of the rain lottery proceeds, wanted or not.
“I think this is the type of setup where everyone is going to get rain,” said Marc Chernard, senior branch forecasters with the federal Weather Prediction Center, in College Park, Md. The center had Philadelphia and its neighboring counties targeted for “excessive rainfall” potential.
For flood potential, what would matter would be the rainfall rates, and it’s possible the skies could wring out localized amounts of 3 inches an hour, said Chernard.
Storms could be quite potent, said Patrick O’Hara, meteorologist at the Mount Holly office. The weather service warned that a “few tornadoes” are possible.
“Some of the stuff in Delmarva, South Jersey, maybe even Philadelphia, may be spinning.” said O’Hara. “Welcome to July weather in Philadelphia.”
People caught in the heavy rain storm as they cross the street in Philadelphia Tuesday, July 28, 2026, in University City.Elizabeth Robertson / Staff Photographer
The likeliest time for strong storms in the Philly region
An early batch of strong storms is likely to miss Philly and most of the afternoon may be rain-free, but a second round late in the day into the evening won’t, O’Hara said, with a round of soaking downpours likely.
“That will be just torrents,” he said. He expected the heaviest of the rains to appear around 6 or 7 p.m.
Said Chernard, “It could be a lot of rain that comes around quickly.”
The system triggering the rain is something of a hybrid, born of a pattern more common to the cooler weather of fall and spring when temperature contrasts in the atmosphere are sharper, O’Hara said.
“We have a situation where we have summertime heat and humidity, but almost out-of-season dynamics,” he said.
Whatever the cause, the storms could have “significant impacts,” said Chernard.
Chernard said he expected the worst of the rains to move out of the region later Tuesday night; however, the shut-off time remains uncertain.
And neither the Delaware nor Schuylkill Rivers are in imminent danger of sloshing over.
However, rain rates of 2 or 3 inches of hour are enough to generate flash flooding along streams. During a localized downpour on Monday, Pennypack Creeks in the Northeast rose to minor flood stage.
Heavy rains flooded downtown streets and swamped cars in Hammonton, Atlantic County.
How much for Philly?
With July thunderstorms it isn’t simply a question of how much for Philly, but how much for South Philly, Center City, Germantown, or Fox Chase.
Even though everyone might get rain, the heaviest rains will be concentrated, said Chernard.
What is almost certain is that some places are going to get a soaking.
With over a half-foot of rain measured already, what has been Philadelphia’s wettest month since March 2024 is very likely to become significantly wetter.
The National Weather Service has posted a flash flood watch effective from 8 a.m. Tuesday until 2 p.m. Wednesday for rain totals up to 3 inches, with downpours of 1 to 2 inches an hour possible.
The national Storm Prediction Center on Tuesday morning listed a 15% chance of severe storms, those with wind gusts approaching 60 mph, for the entire region, with an outside shot of tornadoes. The Weather Prediction Center has a 40% chance of flooding downpours.
Some appetizers — localized downpours — popped up Monday afternoon, prompting flood warnings for Philly and neighboring sections of Montgomery County, and parts of Gloucester and Atlantic Counties in New Jersey.
Floodwaters swamped downtown Hammonton, Atlantic County, with “numerous” cars stranded on the roads, the weather service reported. The Pennypack Creek in Northeast Philly crested above “minor” flood stage.
Moth-ball-size hail pelted Chestnut Hill, and hail twice that size was sighted in Williamstown, Gloucester County, and in the vicinity of Washington Crossing State Park on the Jersey side of the Delaware River.
Storm coverage on Tuesday is expected to be far more extensive, and potentially more disruptive, with a “few tornadoes” possible, the weather service warned.
Storm activity is likely to linger into Wednesday, said Mike Lee, meteorologist in the weather service’s Mount Holly office, with more showers in the forecasts for Thursday.
What time the storms will arrive in Philly
Late July still is very much the lottery-ball season for damaging downpours, and that again likely will be very much in evidence this week. Rainfall totals in the last 30 days have ranged from 137% of normal in Gloucester County to 79% of normal in Montgomery County, according to the Middle Atlantic River Forecast Center.
Thunderstorms are possible as early as midmorning, but expect “repeated rounds” during the afternoon, said Matt Benz, senior meteorologist with AccuWeather Inc.
The highest probability for severe storms, those with wind gusts near 60 mph, would be in South Jersey and Delaware, although they could nose into Philly, said the weather service’s Lee.
The storms could continue well into the night, and additional rains are expected Wednesday afternoon.
The rain totals again are likely to vary widely; however, a general 1 to 2 inches is expected across the region.
Whatever happened to the drought?
It hasn’t gone anywhere — yet.
All of New Jersey and Chester County remain under state-declared drought warnings. In the latest interagency U.S. Drought Monitor update, conditions in the entire region remain from “abnormally dry” to severe drought.
All that may change by week’s end.
Through Sunday, officially 6.37 inches of rain habr been measured at Philadelphia International Airport this month. That is the highest monthly precipitation total since March 2024.
July’s rains have ended a run of 16 straight months of below-normal precipitation in Philly.
Said Benz: “It’s an old saying that all droughts end on a flood. That’s kind of what we’re seeing right now.”
Warming in the tropical Pacific has been intensifying rapidly, and with increasing certainty government meteorologists say this El Niño event could become the strongest in records dating to 1950.
It is all but certain to have profound effects on the Atlantic hurricane season and the winter of 2026-27 across the United States. It’s also going to stick around.
In its Thursday update, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration advised that El Niño would“strengthen through the end of the year, with a 97% chance it will last through early spring 2027.”
Sea-surface temperatures over a critical 2.4 million-square-mile portion of the tropical Pacific are running about 2 degrees Fahrenheit above long-term averages, more than qualifying for El Niño status.
In records dating to 1950, those temperatures have reached as high as 4.5 degrees above normal. In this El Niño event, the temperatureshave a “43% chance” of reaching that level, said Michelle L’Heureux, physical scientist at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.
As for what impacts it will have, NOAA scientists point out that El Niňo will not be acting in isolation and that it would be impossible to know. However, based on past strong El Niños, expect unusual levels of strangeness for the next several months.
For Philly, it may have significance for the stubborn drought conditions, but that also could come with a positive development.
And its potentially benign effects on the Atlantic hurricane season may save some lives and yield a robust bonus for the U.S. treasury.
How does El Niño affect the U.S. weather?
El Niño events develop as part of a periodic natural process as east-to-west trade winds that push water into the western Pacific slacken, allowing prodigious, massive amounts of warm water to move eastward.
The warmer water interacts with the overlying air, setting off convective thunderstorms and altering west-to-east upper-air winds that deliver the weather to the United States and other parts of the world.
Reliable responses to El Niño include storminess in the southern United States and warmth in much of the northern states and Canada. For Philly, about the only constant has been weirdness.
How is El Niño affected by other phenomena?
El Niño is a crucial piece of the atmospheric puzzle in long-range forecasting. However, it also interacts with other phenomena, such as the Arctic Oscillation — shifts in atmospheric pressure between the Arctic and the lower latitudes, and an important driver of winter temperatures — and patterns in the North Atlantic, which “may reinforce or counteract each other,” said Johnna Infanti, a climate center meteorologist.
And when it comes to developing outlooks for the seasons, forecasters have to consider earthly phenomena such as changes in soil moisture and sea ice, she said.
“It is important to remember that an El Niño can shift the odds toward certain outcomes,” she said, “but the outcome is not guaranteed.”
That said, “stronger events can tilt the odds more heavily in favor of the expected outcome,” she added.
The short answer in all probability would be no, Infanti said.
In summer, she said, “there is no clear link between above-average temperatures over the United States and El Niño.”
Besides, this El Niño is still a relative toddler. This one is expected to last for about a year, a typical lifespan, L’Heureux said.
While the sea-surface temperature has surpassed the El Niño threshold, “the atmosphere is still aligning,” said Matthew Rosencrans, NOAA’s lead hurricane seasonal forecaster.
As it intensifies and the atmospheric response strengthens, the impacts will become more evident, and they are likely to be significant during the peak of the hurricane season, from mid-August into September, he said.
That may be welcome news for residents and property owners along the Atlantic coast and for U.S. taxpayers.
How will El Niño likely affect the number of Atlantic hurricanes?
El Niño can generate powerful upper-air shearing winds that can suppress hurricane development in the Atlantic Basin.
In the six years in which sea-surfacetemperatures in the key El Niño zone remained 3.5 degrees or higher above normal for three months or more, the Atlantic tropical-storm season was far less active than normal.
The numbers for all named storms, those with winds of 39 mph or higher; hurricanes, which havewinds of at least 74 mph; and “major” hurricanes, those with winds of 111 or higher, were substantially below long-term averages.
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Among all federal disaster relief fund disasters, hurricanes are far and away the most expensive. In a congressional study covering the 30-year period through 1992, hurricanes accounted for 44%, or more than $150 billion, of all federal disaster money.
A potential downside would be that fewer storms would lessen the chances for any drought-relieving tropical-storm remnants. (On the plus side, the region would not have to deal with their attendant flooding: See Ida, 2021.)
Will El Niño affect the Philadelphia winter?
Looking way ahead, El Niño is not much help in determining how the winter might play out.
One characteristic of strong El Niños has been persistence of certain patterns. What happens tends to keep happening, since ocean temperatures change slowly.
The six strongest El Niños persisted into winter and left quite a disparate legacy in Philly. The winters of 1991-92 and 1997-98 were nearly snowless, and that of 1972-73 was the only truly snowless winter in Philadelphia history.
An industrious young man in Swarthmore adds to a mountain of snow his father crated from the prodigious January 2016 snowfall.
Conversely, snow was well above normal in the winters of 1965-66, even though no snow had fallen until the end of January; in 1982-83, when an all-out blizzard occurred in February; and in 2015-16, which featured a two-footer in January.
It may be a while before the drought advisories disappear, but since Monday Philadelphia has had more rain than in any entire month since March 2025. And the city of Camden has been clocked well over a half-foot of rain.
In both instances, if it seemed like most of that came in a hurry, it did.
On Thursday, for the second time in a week, downpours set off a flood of warnings in the city, the neighboring counties and Delaware.
And more showers are possible Friday and Saturday, but the atmosphere isn’t expected to upstage its performance since it turned off last weekend’s 100-degree heat.
Thursday’s downpours wrung out 2 and 3 inches of rain in several towns across the region.
Flooding was reported along numerous roads, with vehicles stranded, including in the vicinity of the Ben Franklin Bridge, the National Weather Service said. The rains could continue until 7 or 8 p.m. Thursday, said Alex Staarmann, meteorologist inthe Mount Holly office.
Multiple water rescues have been reported in Wilmington.
Philadelphia broke a 74-year-old record for a July 9 with 2.61 inches of rain measured officially, according to the weather service.
At one point flood warnings had been posted for the city and in all seven neighboring counties.
But the rain lately has been random. And in the grand casino of the atmosphere, that was the case Thursday, and not every place got the soakings.
The drought conditions are likely to persist despite the storms
In the weekly inter-agency U.S. Drought Monitor update posted Thursday, some degree of drought conditions persisted in all of New Jersey, Philly, and the neighboring Pennsylvania counties.
The drought monitor has most of the region was in “moderate drought,” with some improvement in Burlington, Camden, and Gloucester Counties.
But all of Chester County and most Montgomery County were in “severe drought.” Southeastern New Jersey, including the Shore towns, were in “extreme drought.”
Soil moisture levels will remain significantly below normal during the next week, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center.
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And it appears the atmospheric faucets are going to shut after Saturday.
Said Joseph DeSilva, meteorologist at the weather service’s Mounty Holly office, “Next week looks pretty dry.”
Philadelphia so far has confirmed seven heat-related deaths in the last week, bringing the seasonal total to eight, the city health department reported Tuesday.
And officials in the Garden State are investigating 29 “suspected” heat-related deaths, most of them in the central and northern parts of the state, a spokesperson for the New Jersey Health Department said..
Four deaths were reported on Monday, and three additional fatalities Tuesday, said James Garrow, a spokesperson for the Philadelphia Department of Public Health, with an eighth earlier in the season.
No details were available about the victims, including their ages and when and where the deaths occurred.
The possible New Jersey heat-related deaths would have occurred during the record three-day hot spell that ended on July Fourth, the state said.
In Philadelphia, temperatures on those three days hit 101 degrees or higher, the first time that had happened in the period of record dating to 1873, the National Weather Service said.
It also was only the third time that they officially reached triple digits on three straight days.
In New Jersey, the suspected victims ranged in age from the mid-30s to the 80s, said health department spokesperson Dalya Ewais. She added, however, that death toll numbers “are still unconfirmed,” pending forensic examinations.
In the last decade Philadelphia has averaged but five deaths annually, a dramatic drop from the deadly summers of the 1990s.
In 1993, Philadelphia recorded 118 heat-related deaths — compared with 50 in the 10-year period that began in 2017. The eight reported so far are the most since the eight of 2022, according to health department records.
The shock of the 1993 death toll in Philly — which foreshadowed Chicago’s 1995 disaster, and Europe’s in 2003 — led to the creation of the city’s heat-response system, recalled David L. Cohen, who was chief of staff under former Mayor Ed Rendell.
Federal officials have lauded the program as a model for other cities. It includes setting up cooling centers, encouraging people to look in on neighbors, and having the Philadelphia Corporation for Aging set up a heat hotline.
A study published in the Bulletin of the American Meteorology Society in 2025 credited the program with saving 270 lives from 1995 through 1998.
If the forecast holds, the city can give the program a rest at least through the week. No highs of even 90 degrees are expected through Monday.
The waterfall downpours came just as the sun-cooked vegetation was showing those hay-brownish tints and taking on that desperate we-need-a-drink-now look.
“You have to be careful what you wish for in the summer,” said Scott Kleebauer, branch forecaster at the national Weather Prediction Center in College Park, Md.
But sometimes too much is not enough.
While downpours flooded streets and caused Regional Rail problems for SEPTA, which also reported weather-relates signal problems, Kleebauer suggested it wouldn’t hurt for Philadelphia and other parts of the Mid-Atlantic to place an order for more rain.
Through Sunday, Philadelphia’s year-to-date precipitation was about 75% of normal, and even with additional rains on Monday, still was roughly 4 inches — or a month’s worth — below long-term averages, according to the Middle Atlantic River Forecast Center.
More rain might be about the last thing some people would want after rounds of strong storms on Sunday with frequent lightning and downpours on Sunday and Monday, when as much as 2 to 4 inches fell in a short period upon parts of Philadelphia, Bucks, and Burlington Counties, the National Weather Service said.
And in the city of Camden, 4.38 inches was measured, the agency said.
“Numerous roads remain closed due to flooding,” the agency said.
In late morning, moderate flooding was reported along Frankford Creek, and the weather service posted a flood warning that remained in effect until early evening. At one point Kelly Drive was closed due to flooding on the Schuylkill.
Comden County received about 1,000 911 calls just in the stretch of the morning storm, said Dan Keashen, Camden County’s public affairs director.
SEPTA train service on the Trenton line was suspended due to water over the rails. A car got stuck in floodwaters by a rail bridge and Eighth Street and Fairmount Avenue, the weather service reported.
The rains backed off during the afternoon, but the weather service has shower possibilities every day this week, except Wednesday.
The federal Climate Prediction Center’s outlook for the 8-to-14-day period favors above-normal precipitation for the region.
So, is the drought on the run in the Philly region?
Maybe, but droughts are slow to develop and slow to abandon their methodical harvests.
All of New Jersey and Chester County remain under state-declared drought “warnings,” and the majority of the region is under “moderate drought,” according to the interagency U.S. Drought Monitor.
“There’s definitely been some improvement,” said Kleebauer. “Unfortunately there’s been some losers.”
Summer rains are notoriously capricious and random.
“My grass has been happy the past few days,” said Lee Robertson, a weather service meteorologist in Mount Holly, but he added that it’s going to “take a while” to make up the accumulated rain deficits.
But in reality, “It’s really difficult to get everybody to win,” said Kleebauer.
The steering currents aloft that move storms get as lazy as a lot of humans in the heat.
“Stuff just kind of meanders or has slow general motion,” he said. Storms can get stuck in place, and the more one place gets, the less other places will get. Even in a juiced atmosphere, moisture is finite.
Joe Puccio of Williamstown rolls up his pants legs to make his way to his truck in the flooded parking lot at the Ferry Avenue PATCO station in Camden Monday, July 6, 2026, as a flash flood threat continues for the region. He said he commutes to work in Philadelphia every day and the flooding is something that happens a lot in the area, but he has never seen it as bad before. His truck started okay, but Route 130, his normal way home was also under water so he had to take back roads.Tom Gralish / Staff Photographer
The extreme heat appears to be over, for now
The rains at least have marked the end of the region’s extreme heat as the “heat dome” has migrated westward. It is not uncommon for storms to break out as a hot spell deteriorates.
But that three-day stretch ending with that torrid 250th birthday party on July 4 was historic in its own right.
It marked the first time in records dating to 1873 that the temperature had reached 101 or higher three consecutive days and only the third time it had hit 100 three days straight, according to the weather service.
It may be hard to remember, but on Feb. 8 it got down to 8 degrees at the airport, proving that Philly truly is a four-season resort.
Inquirer staff writers T.J. Furman and Sarah Nicell contributed to this article.
An unscheduled and dramatic light and sound show — this one produced by nature — interrupted Philadelphia’s July Fourth extravaganza Saturday night, forcing crowds to evacuate the Parkway three hours before the man-made fireworks show was scheduled to start.
People were told to leave the area and seek shelter midway through the One Philly: Unity Concert for America. But city officials were not quite ready to call it a Semiquncentennial — a year in the planning — and two hours later the city announced the event would resume with a shortened schedule and the fireworks finale. This time, the manmade kind.
Forecasters had been warning for the last two days that potent thunderstorms were possible Saturday night, as so often happens when a heat wave begins to break down.
July Fourth marked the third consecutive day that the temperature had reached 100 in Philly, tying a record set in 1963 and 2011, and the atmosphere on Saturday, congested with water vapor, was exhibiting clear evidence that it was about to pop. A severe-storm watch covered the entire region.
Earlier, declaring a measure of independence from steaminess that made the atmosphere feel like sweat itself, hundreds of thousands in the region celebrated the day 250 years ago when rebellious colonists gathering in Philadelphia announced to the world they had formed a fragile new nation.
From a ceremonial burial to a patriotic pet parade, for a day at least, anxieties over divisiveness, a national identity crisis, historical controversies, AI, or the state of the economy and the world yielded to an air of celebration robust enough to compete with the heat.
About the only serious clouds during the day were the ominous storm forecasts, but the day belonged to the sun, albeit a hot one.
It was a day to savor the fact that the nation has been able to withstand a Civil War; two World Wars; a Great Depression; and a Cold War nuclear stare down with the Soviet Union, whose life span it has exceeded by about 180 years.
And as the festivities got underway, a ceremony on Independence Mall, where the Declaration of Independence was read on July 4, 1776, suggested the United States plans to stick around for a while. That would be the burial of the national time capsule, to be opened in 2276.
“I know that we’re here for a burial,” said Mayor Cherelle L. Parker, but “this one is about hope … about believing that the generations who come after us will build a stronger nation.”
One piece of evidence that people were ready to make a patriotic day of it was the fact that by 11 a.m., the wait to visit Independence Hall was seven hours; two hours just to enter Independence Square. Maps became impromptu fans for people waiting to see the Liberty Bell. Yet the crowds were enduring it all with a remarkable equanimity on a day when people evidently were primed to savor a remarkable occasion.
The daytime events included the Celebration of Freedom event and the must-see Betsy Ross House Patriotic Pet Parade.
Josh Martin plays historic person Joseph Plumb, during a reading of the Declaration of Independence behind Independence Hall.Jessica Griffin / Staff Photographer
City officials were aware that the Unity Concert For America and fireworks might interrupted by a natural light show but they were determined to proceed come thunder or high water. Fireworks had been scheduled for 11:45 p.m.
They certainly weren’t factors in the time capsule event, where onlookers showed up adorned in red, white, and blue, along with Indy, a bald eagle. Tucked into the capsule were items from the three branches of government, all the territories, and all the states, including a whale bone from Maine and poems from Alabama.
“A time capsule is more than a collection of artifacts,” Parker said. “It’s a message from one generation to the next about who we were, what we valued, and what we believed was worth preserving.”
Mayor Cherelle L. Parker speaking at the Constitution Center.Jessica Griffin / Staff Photographer
What some people were on Saturday, even those enjoying themselves and not complaining, was certifiably hot.
(We will eschew saying hotter than a firecracker, but note that this publication used that phrase to describe the record July Fourth heat in 1966.)
British pop-rock vocalist Seal, who was the opening act at 5:45 p.m., did complain: “I know it’s hot, but it’s not hot enough.” Wearing a banana-yellow blazers, Seal, of Nigerian and Brazilian descent, proclaimed, “It’s only 105. I want it to be 110.”
Actually, it got only 101, and that was indeed hot enough for most folks.
Adorned in red, white, and blue, people gathered in the shade at the Independence Beer Garden across Sixth Street from Independence Mall, escaping some of the heat to sip beer with the World Cup displayed on a big screen.
Sandra Rahn, from Jacksonville, Fla., was among the escapees. She was taking a break from the sun to watch the game. Her Yorkie pup, Matilda, was cooling off alongside her, following the Patriotic Pet Show at the Betsy Ross House.
Rahn, her husband, and Matilda, arrived Wednesday to celebrate the country’s 250th, attending as many outdoor events as they could so Matilda could be part of the festivities.
“Everybody’s excited and outside; it’s been great,” Rahn said.
On Monday, they are to head home to Florida, where they hope to “cool off.”
For the record, at 3 p.m. the heat index in Philly was 103; in Jacksonville, 98.
And hidden in plain sight among those braving the serpentine line to visit Independence Hall were numerous time travelers from the Revolutionary era.
Aaron Patrick journeyed — like many Revolutionary War soldiers once had done — from Carlisle, Cumberland County, and donned a wool waistcoat and a black tricorn hat as he made his way through the line. Temperature check: about 93 degrees Fahrenheit.
“Everyone’s hot,” Patrick said. ”I’m just a little warmer than most.”
The outfits start with a linen shift for women or a linen shirt for men, said Abby Harting, a historical clothing expert. “It’s naturally cool, wicks sweat away — it’s perfect for a muggy, hot day, because the fabric does the same thing it did 250 years ago,” Harting said.
On top of the linen, the boys and men in the group wore a light wool waistcoat, while the girls and women wore a “stay,” which serves the same purpose as a bra, and another layer. Harting noted the women’s layers were designed to last for years and adapt to a person’s changing body.
She said their decision to dress up was a bit of “experiential archaeology,” and a great way to imagine what those in 1776 were experiencing — both mentally and physically — as they adopted the Declaration of Independence.
For Washington, D.C.-area couple Katelyn and Zachary Damm, their historical hobby started with the tricorn hat given to Zachary by his father-in-law. From there, they turned to Amazon to order their clothes.
The buffs prepared for their trip by reading about the era and studying the Declaration of Independence, Zachary Damm said.
“All of our freedoms date back to this day,” Katelyn Damm said. “That makes it special.”
The 18-year-old yellow Labrador retriever, sporting big blacked-out goggles and using a baby-dog stroller to move around, immediately stole the show at the Patriotic Pet Show. With his long fluffy blond hair waving in the breeze, Bruno’s confident smile told the crowd everything they needed to know: This veteran was here to bring home gold.
Not all the activities were of a festive nature. Striking Peco workers picketed outside the power company’s headquarters.
Outside the Liberty Bell, about 200 folks gathered in the yard next door at the President’s House to honor the nine people enslaved by George and Martha Washington in the 1790s. This year, attendees said the annual independence gathering, with its focus on freedom, truth, and remembrance, felt different.
“Over the last six months, since the president issued an executive order, they have tried to whitewash and bend history in a way that doesn’t tell the whole story of the country,” said Dawn Chavous, spokesperson for Avenging the Ancestors Coalition. “We are here because it’s important to not only remember, but protect and defend the history of America, which includes Black and African American history.”
Primarily, however, people went about the business of celebrating across the region.
In Doylestown, Gov. Josh Shapiro joined the Fourth of July parade, and, of course, people gathered for holiday block parties.
Danny Torres, who runs the barbecue business The Latin Grill, prepares Puerto Rican and Jerk seasoned chicken wings in a grill at a block party in the Ludlow section of Philly.Aidan T. Gallo / Staff Photographer
In Philly’s Ludlow section, Johanna Rodriguez and Michael Cunningham mixed fresh lemonade as they watched their daughter and son splash around in the swimming pool in the middle of their Jefferson Street block.
Rodriguez said the block takes Fourth of July seriously because it’s one of the only times everyone comes outside to enjoy the festivities and see each other in person.
“Obviously, having a block party with all the neighbors coming together is always the best,” Rodriguez said. ”Just hanging out and talking about the old days. It brings back the classic vibes.”
No one appeared to be complaining about the heat from the grill or the sun.
For the record, according to Thomas Jefferson, on the afternoon of July 4, 1776, at what is now Independence Mall the temperature was a pleasant 76 degrees.
Staff writers Maggie Prosser, Isabel Maney, and Michelle Myers contributed to this article.
Philadelphia almost certainly will have set more temperature records over the next two days — but maybe not during the steam-bath afternoons.
Nature’s natural cooling system, nightfall, is having a hard time getting it done with the atmosphere so swollen with water vapor. It didn’t get lower than 82 Friday morning and an encore is expected the morning of the Fourth.
Both would be record-high minimum temperatures for the dates in Philadelphia. That record bar is considerably lower than for the high-temperature records — 104 degreesfor Friday, and 103 forSaturday — set during the sizzling 1966 Independence week. A late-day thunderstorm could knock back Saturday’s temperatures, and storms Saturday night are “likely.”
Thursday’s high, 103, tied the record set in 1901, when the nation was a mere 125 years old.
Those potential century-plus readings are attention-getting, but health officials have long held that for heat-related mortality, consistently warm nights are more dangerous than the days, particularly for older people who live alone in brick rowhouses in the city. As a former Philadelphia health official has observed, without nighttime cooling, they can become “brick ovens.”
“The intensity and length of the extreme heat will exacerbate impacts to both people and infrastructure,” the weather service warned.
The sequence of hot nights “are particularly harmful because the body doesn’t have a chance to recover,” said Kraftin Schreyer, associate professor of emergency medicine at Temple University’s Lewis Katz School of Medicine. Extreme heat can exacerbate circulatory and lung conditions, and certain mental disorders, she added.
But she and other health experts say the detrimental effects may be modified by the heat the region already has experienced this year.
The Philly forecast for the 250 climax
Friday’s high is expected to challenge the reigning champ, the 104 set during a blistering heat wave in 1966, when the nation was a mere 190 years old.
On Saturday, when Philly celebrates the nation’s 250th birthday, the high may fall just short of 100, said Matt Benz, senior meteorologist with AccuWeather, as the high pressure “heat dome” covering much of the nation loses some of its protective power over Philly.
That also could be a window for “ring of fire” thunderstorms that could be nasty. The federal Storm Prediction Center sees a 15% chance that any storms on Saturday could become “severe,” with wind gusts up to 60 mph. The National Weather sees a 60% chance of storms Saturday night.
By Sunday, highs will be backing off to the 90s, however the sequence of warm nights probably will persist, at least in areas of Philadelphia most affected by the urban heat island effect.
The urban heat island and heat-health dangers
The world has been getting warmer, but cities long ago got the jump on climate change, and their impacts on temperature were observed in the 19th century and documented in a famous experiment in the 1950s by legendary climatologist Helmut Landsberg.
Landsberg, who observed temperatures had fallen in some European cities after World War II bombings destroyed buildings, set up instrument arrays in an area of Maryland that was undergoing rapid development. As surfaces were paved and structures erected, he recorded significant localized temperature increases.
In Philly, dense neighborhoods can be several degrees warmer than other areas even within the city. Urban areas reduce cooling at night because they are efficient at storing the sun’s energy and slower to release heat after sunset.
The heat-death tolls in Paris in 2003, Chicago in 1995, and Philadelphia in 1993 underscored the urban heat hazards.
It’s warmer, but heat deaths have dropped dramatically in Philly
“We’ve been really lucky,” said Samuel Eldrich, medical director of the Temple Health-Chestnut Hill Hospital Emergency Department
The decline has a lot do with Philadelphia and that summer of 1993, Eldrich added.
That year, Philadelphia was under fire because it was the only major Eastern city reporting significant numbers of heat deaths. The medical examiner’s office was using forensic evidence, such as closed windows, in determining heat deaths.
The reasoning: With so many people dying, doctors wouldn’t be able to get to the bodies in time to verify core body temperatures of 105 degrees, the standard for hyperthermia. The Centers for Disease Control later decreed Philadelphia’s method was correct, and it was adopted elsewhere.
The dramatically high death toll was the impetus for the city’s emergency response plan, lauded by CDC and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration that lauded as a national prototype.
It includes opening cooling centers and nudging residents to look in on older neighbors, and having the Philadelphia Corporation for the Aging operate a “heat line,” 215-765-9040. It will be operating daily from 8:30 a.m. to 8:30 p.m., and the agency “can also assist callers reporting concerns about vulnerable neighbors, family members, or community members,” said spokesperson Bill Conallen.
Citing Census figures, the Corporation for Aging says about 95,000 people 65 and older live alone in the city.
‘This is temporary’
Subject to change, the heat wave is due to end Monday, with highs in the lower 80s (remember when that seemed hot?).
In the meantime the experts are offering coping tips, the three most-important being hydrate, hydrate, hydrate.
How much water should you drink? More than you think, said Schreyer. Men should drink about a gallon a day, women three quarts, but four to eight cups additional wouldn’t hurt. Sip, don’t guzzle, she said.
At a time when everyone wants to be outside, it’s critical to take breaks in air-conditioned stores, malls, or wherever, even for a few minutes, Eldrich said. “It gives your body a chance to recover,” he said.
Sunny G. Hallowell, associate professor of nursing at Villanova University, recommends cool showers and tepid baths. Also, especially with storms threatened, be prepared for power outages. She suggested storing damp towels in the refrigerator or freezer as a quick cool-down resource should the A/C go off.
She also recommends keeping a cool attitude. “This is temporary,” she said, and if the temperature hits a record, that’s “something to brag about.”
And if you’ve had it with the heat, think back to your misery during the Arctic freezes, and think that with the heat, “You got your wish.”
In the grand casino of the atmosphere, scheduling outdoor events on July Fourth in the Philly region is almost always going to be a rolling of the bones.
And on the day Philadelphia and the rest of the nation are holding a mass 250th birthday party, the odds may be dicier than usual, with thunderstorms and accompanying lightning possible Saturday afternoon and night, forecasters say.
The National Weather Service on Thursday listed a 50-50 chance of storms Saturday night, and the federal Storm Prediction Center, in Norman, Okla., bumped up the probability of severe storms — those with winds up to 60 mph — to 15%.
July happens to be the peak month for lightning-bearing thunderstorms in Philadelphia, occurring every five days on average, and who doesn’t want to be outside on the Fourth?
As if record-challenging heat and an atmosphere that feels like syrup weren’t enough.
Lightning injuries and fatalities are rare — on average in the last decade, 20 people have been killed annually by lightning in the United States, according to the National Weather Service. But among outdoor events with large crowds across the country, Philly’s July Fourth concert would be among the riskiest for lightning, according to Stephen Strader, disaster specialist at Villanova University.
“It’s way up there, a lot higher than I thought it was,” he said.
The city is well aware of the atmosphere’s capriciousness, the potential risks in July, and the potential effects on the Parkway celebration and the World Cup match in South Philly and has developed safety protocols, said Jeffery Kolakowski, communications director for the Office of Emergency Management.
Unfortunately, for attendees and planners, predicting the when and where for thunderstorms remains elusive.
“There’s uncertainty of the when and where of the storms,” said Rich Thompson, branch chief and lead forecaster at the federal Storm Prediction Center, in Norman, Okla., the source of those severe storm and tornado watches. “It’s still one of the great frontiers of meteorology. It’s incredibly difficult.”
‘Ring of Fire’ fireworks and the weekend forecasts
Readings soared to 97 on Wednesday, and the heat index shot past 105 in Philly as the atmosphere thickened in a hurry.
And it’s about to get thicker. The heat is forecast to peak Thursday and Friday with highs surpassing 100. It could cool down all the way to 99 on Saturday, said Matt Benz, senior meteorologist with AccuWeather Inc. Unfortunately that would indicate increasing volatility in the atmosphere.
High pressure though the atmosphere, the so-called heat dome phenomenon, has put a lid on convective storms, “but that starts to come off Friday into Saturday,” he said. That could lead to “ring of fire” thunderstorms, so named because they form on heat-dome edges. They can be especially nasty.
“We’re worried that something is going to be blowing up,” he said.
The storms could come in one bunch in the early evening and yield to a peaceful night, but they also could come in waves over a period of hours.
Even without strong storms — or storms not in the immediate vicinity of the festivities — lightning strikes are possible.
“Unfortunately that could be the biggest concern that day you’ve got lighting and people outdoors,” said Benz.
The lightning threat
The chances of being struck by lightning are remote, about one in a million in a given year, according to the weather service.
But they do happen: They’re what Strader calls “low probability events” with “high consequences.” In 2019, several people were injured when lightning struck at a PGA tournament in Georgia.
In 2014, a severe thunderstorm forced thousands of concertgoers at Philadelphia’s Made in America Music Festival to evacuate the Parkway for a short time that Sunday evening.
But for the most part, Fourth of July fireworks have been confined to the manmade kind.
In his analysis, Strader looked at thousands of outdoor events attended by 10,000 or more people, what he called “large outdoor public gatherings,” to calculate which ones would expose the most people to cloud-to-ground lightning strikes, taking into account location and time of year.
He found that both the Parkway and World Cup events in Philly this year would rank among the top 6%, using his criteria. The Parkway would be particularly problematic given the lack of shelter options.
All during the events the City’s Emergency Operations Center will be operating with a “play by play” from a National Weather Service forecaster, said Kolakowski.
In the event of lightning he said, “an evacuation of the area could be issued and people would be asked to leave the event ground in a safe manner and seek shelter.”
He said weather messages would be broadcast on screens, loudspeakers, social media, and text alert.
He added that people can get free event or safety alerts by texting CUPPHL or AMERICA to 888-777.
