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The first week of July has typically been one of Philadelphia’s most violent, with recent Independence Day weekends marked by mass shootings, police officers shot, and bursts of violence that left a dozen dead.

But this year, amid a dramatic decline in violence and a flood of visitors to the city, the holiday weekend was noticeably calmer than in years past, offering another encouraging sign that the dramatic decline in shootings held through one of its toughest tests.

Twenty-three people were shot from July 1 through July 7 — a slightly higher total than most weeks in 2026, but nearly half the average number of shooting victims during the same period over the last decade, according to city data. In 2021, at the height of the city’s gun violence crisis, more than 70 people were shot in that week alone.

If the current pace continues, Philadelphia is on track to record fewer than 200 homicides for the first time since the 1960s, a remarkable turnaround from just five years ago, when nearly three times as many people were killed.

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Philadelphia Police Commissioner Kevin Bethel said in an interview that the July Fourth weekend is historically one of the most challenging for urban police departments.

In each of the last four years, Philadelphia’s celebrations were overshadowed by violence: Last year, 13 people were shot in South Philadelphia; nine people were struck by bullets at a teen party in Southwest Philadelphia in 2024; five people were killed at random by an armored gunman in Kingsessing the year before; and in 2022, two officers were grazed by bullets on the Benjamin Franklin Parkway, sparking a stampede of fireworks spectators.

Bethel said he and other city, state, and federal law enforcement officials spent about two years planning for this holiday weekend, preparing for potential crises that never came.

Anticipating hundreds of thousands of visitors for FIFA Club World Cup events and the nation’s 250th birthday celebrations, the department canceled many officers’ vacation requests over the last month and, on the Fourth, deployed more than 2,000 members of local and state law enforcement across the city, he said.

Reinforcements from the Pennsylvania State Police and neighboring municipalities helped the city maintain staffing levels in neighborhoods that have historically seen more violence, Bethel said. Officers worked in the record-breaking heat, he said, with some starting their shifts at 7 a.m. and clocking out only after the concert on the Parkway ended at 3 a.m.

The FBI took the lead on monitoring the skies, Bethel said, intercepting several drones that were flying illegally. (None of the drones, he said, was flying with “nefarious” intent.)

He called the weekend a validation of the city’s planning and broader work that has contributed to the decline in gun violence.

“I can’t tell you how many people grabbed me and said they felt welcomed and felt safe,” he said of the events over the last month. “Let’s own the win. Let’s not hide from it.”

Bethel also said there had been no acts of violence around the approximately two dozen bars that were approved to stay open until 4 a.m. from June 11 to July 19 to accommodate crowds attending the FIFA, July Fourth, and MLB All-Star celebrations.

“We’re seeing zero issues,” he said.

The reduction in violence over the holiday weekend fits a broader pattern. Shootings and homicides in the city began to decline in 2023, mirroring a national trend, and have continued to fall. So far this year, 90 people have been killed in homicides — less than a third of the number recorded at the same time three years ago, according to police data.

Just as there was no clear explanation for the spike in crime that began in 2019, criminologists and law enforcement officials say, it is similarly difficult to pinpoint the reasons for its decline. But there are theories: an overall return to normal life after the pandemic, expanded community-based violence prevention programs, more arrests in shootings and homicides, and targeted prosecutions of some of the city’s most violent gangs.

One measurable change has been the police department’s improved clearance rates, which researchers have long viewed as a potential deterrent to future violence.

The homicide clearance rate — the share of killings solved, including arrests made this year in both new and older cases — has climbed to nearly 99%, up from about 47% in 2022. The clearance rate for nonfatal shootings has risen to about 41%, roughly double what it was in 2021.

Bethel said those arrests take would-be shooters and victims off the streets and interrupt cycles of violence.

“We’re impacting retaliation, we’re impacting somebody being shot again, we’re impacting someone who may shoot and kill somebody,” he said.

Jeff Asher, a New Orleans-based national crime analyst, said because the decline is likely driven by many programs and societal changes, it is hard to know what will sustain the progress.

“I keep expecting [the crime rate] to stop falling, and it’s just not,” he said in an interview. “So, maybe this is the new normal. We just can’t say with a ton of confidence.”

Still, the quieter weekend was not wholly peaceful.

Three men were killed between Friday and Monday morning, leaving families and neighbors to mourn loved ones even as the city showed signs of sustained progress.

On Monday morning, Shawn Caddell, 32, was killed during a robbery inside a Logan beer deli, police said. And on Sunday, two men were slain in areas that have long been hot spots for shootings: Emanuel Aguirre, 27, was fatally shot in the Hunting Park section of North Philadelphia, and Donald McPhaul, 51, was gunned down on Salford Street in West Philadelphia.

A 16-year-old in South Philadelphia was among more than a dozen people who were shot and survived.

Bethel said the pockets of the city that have long experienced higher rates of violence — and that continue to see shootings, albeit fewer, today — remain a priority.

“We are never going to give up in those communities,” he said. “We are going to keep working in those areas.”

Recent polls have found that a majority of Philadelphians have noticed the decline and feel safer. But for residents on blocks where shootings remain a recurring threat, a citywide trend line can feel distant from daily life.

Chantay Love, president of the victim-advocacy organization EMIR Healing Center, said the communities seeing recurring violence are still grappling with “the trauma and collateral damage that is left behind” from the last six years.

Along the stretch of Market Street near where McPhaul was killed, more than 100 bullets were fired into a party on July 4, 2021, leaving two men dead. Earlier this year, 20-year-old Imani Ringgold was walking down the block with a slice of pizza when she was caught in the crossfire of an escalating gang feud and killed.

Linda Days, 72, who lives in the area, said the shooting that killed McPhaul was another reminder of the violence she has come to expect since moving there seven years ago from Olney.

Standing in her doorway on Tuesday, Days said it feels as if gunfire has become part of the soundtrack outside her home. But during the Fourth of July weekend, she said, she is especially careful to stay inside.

“I don’t even come out to watch the fireworks,” she said.