Category: New York Times

  • ‘She’s one of us’: Mary Peltola’s bumpy rise to political power

    ‘She’s one of us’: Mary Peltola’s bumpy rise to political power

    KWETHLUK, Alaska — Hard by the murky brown water of the Kuskokwim River, in a region reachable only by plane or boat, past weather-stunted willows and crude seasonal fish camps, dogs roamed muddy, rutted roads under low, dreary skies.

    Here in the small village of Kwethluk in the vast tundra of southwestern Alaska, in the window of a house with unpainted sides and rotting wood steps, was a campaign placard for Mary Peltola.

    “We are related,” said the man inside.

    James Nicori, 77, sat in his chair and unspooled his Alaska Native connection to Peltola, the Democrat running for the Senate.

    “Mary’s great-grandma and my grandpa were half sister, half brother,” Nicori said. Her mother was a girl here, Nicori said. She was a girl here.

    “She understands how we struggle,” he said. “She is one of us.”

    Peltola, a former member of Congress, is an uncommonly capable candidate. In Alaska, where Republicans far outnumber Democrats and independents far outnumber both, she is the rare member of her party who has proved she can win statewide. This year, she has campaigned on four-wheelers and floatplanes, in Xtratuf boots and traditional kuspuk shirts worn by the Indigenous Yup’ik people of Alaska. She has made stops in locales as isolated as an island 30-some miles from Russia, curating social media snippets while playing hard-to-get with most of the mainstream press four time zones away.

    The approach has been largely effective. Peltola beat the Republican incumbent, Dan Sullivan, in the nonpartisan primary in August, and polling and fundraising suggest she could do it again in November.

    But in ways that have not been aired until now, Peltola, 53, is also an uncommonly complicated candidate. Genial and unassuming in public, she can be crass and apoplectic in private. Her campaign has been marred by accounts of her outbursts that left some aides unnerved. When she served in the House, she had one of the highest staff turnover rates on Capitol Hill.

    The daughter of a Yup’ik woman from Alaska and a white man from Nebraska, Peltola grew up in three villages and the port city of Bethel, population 6,000, some 70 miles upcountry from the Bering Sea. She went to three different high schools and four different colleges. She has had three husbands — two children from her first, two more from her second, three stepchildren from her third — and moved from Bethel to Juneau to Anchorage and back.

    Her politics are complicated, too, reflecting the idiosyncrasies of her state: She is pro-gun, pro-oil, and pro-gas — but also pro-environment and especially pro-fish.

    And she is, at root, a person whose people’s way of life is dying after decades of disruption to salmon fishing, the cascading consequences of climate change, corporate excess, and government restrictions. There are fewer fish and more limits on fishing. People smile, but grievance stews.

    ‘To know who you are’

    On her first political campaign, she was in the womb.

    In early 1973, in the special election that kick-started the congressional career of Don Young, Alaska’s longtime Republican representative, two of his most ardent aides were the expectant parents of Peltola.

    Ward Sattler, a teacher and small-plane pilot from the Great Plains, was Young’s district chair. Liz Ann Andrew, “an Eskimo interpreter,” in the phrasing of a local newspaper, was an indefatigable canvasser, snowmobiling from village to village in subzero conditions.

    Peltola was born 5½ months after Young won.

    She grew up in Bethel, Kwethluk (with a population of roughly 500 at the time), Tuntutuliak (300), Platinum (50), and Bethel again, as her parents split up. She ate moose and seal and spent her summers on the Kuskokwim, captaining tender boats and cleaning, drying, and smoking salmon.

    “She was doing the things that I would traditionally put in the male category,” one of her best friends, Ana Hoffman, said this month in Bethel. “She didn’t wait for a guy to come back up the boat. She would back up the boat.”

    Peltola spent her sophomore year in high school at a boarding school in Bethlehem, Pa.; her junior year at Bethel Regional; and her senior year in Fort Collins, Colo., where her grandmother lived.

    She went to the University of Northern Colorado, the University of Alaska Fairbanks, the University of Alaska Southeast, and the University of Alaska Anchorage — but never graduated.

    As a college student, she was the runner-up for the Miss World Eskimo-Indian Olympics in 1993 and then crowned Miss National Congress of American Indians in 1995, performing two Yup’ik dances and wearing a wolf-hair headdress when she won.

    In an article about her achievement, she said she wanted to get into politics. “I just have this fire inside me,” she told the Juneau Empire, “when I start reading these cases about Indian rights.”

    She was an intern in the state Legislature in 1996. That year, at the age of 23, she ran to be a representative herself and barely lost. In 1998, the year she married for the first time, she ran again.

    Then known as Mary Sattler, she campaigned for the state House as a Democrat, prioritizing would-be voters in villages. “Villagers say Sattler is a kass’amirteq, meaning someone who acts like a white person,” a reporter from the Anchorage Daily News wrote that August. Her campaign manager, who spoke better Yup’ik than she did, doubled as her interpreter.

    She gave birth to a son in October, posing with him and her husband in an ad in the local newspaper, the Tundra Drums. “I will work hard to make sure our rural way of life is protected,” she wrote. “Our people need protection from outside interests determining how we hunt and live.”

    She was elected that November.

    “I’d explain that my mom is from Kwethluk, my dad was a schoolteacher in these villages,” Peltola said this month in Fairbanks in an interview with the New York Times.

    “I think it’s important for people to know who you are,” she said, “so they understand your back story.”

    ‘I am made of fish’

    In the 10 years she spent at the Capitol in Juneau, Peltola was chairperson of the “bush caucus,” the bipartisan group representing Alaska’s most remote regions. She worked to reduce teen alcohol abuse, stressed the importance of teaching the Yup’ik language, and appealed for more state aid for rural areas. “We’re sitting,” she told a local reporter, “on a powder keg of poverty and resentment.”

    She started meetings in her office, where she served her colleagues salmon. She befriended Lisa Murkowski, then a fellow state representative, now Alaska’s other Republican senator.

    “She was very sure of herself,” said Ethan Berkowitz, a former state representative and the minority leader at the time. “She’s incredibly proud of her Yup’ik heritage, but she was able to walk in both worlds.”

    Along the way, too, she had another son, divorced, remarried, and had a third son and a daughter. Managing an increasingly topsy-turvy personal life, she also missed votes nearly 20% of the time, according to records — in part a result of having and caring for her kids.

    She did not run for reelection in 2008. She separated from her second husband in 2009 — the same year she got together with her third.

    In 2010, she helped Murkowski with her Senate campaign, and she was on the Bethel City Council from 2011 to 2013. She helped the community get a public indoor pool but missed more than a third of the votes.

    Away from public office, she worked for a gold-mining project and as a lobbyist.

    And the fish crisis mostly kept getting worse. The Yup’iks of the Kuskokwim couldn’t fish the way their people had fished for thousands of years. In an attempt at conservation, state and federal restrictions now determined when, how, and how much they could fish, a scenario utterly counter to their culture of subsistence, severing the rhythms of generations and upending their relationship with the river and the salmon.

    In 2017, in an interview with the Associated Press, Peltola likened the state of affairs to “a family member being sick.”

    That year, she became the executive director of the Kuskokwim River Inter-Tribal Fish Commission, an intermediary between Alaska Natives and the outside agencies establishing and enforcing the rules and regulations.

    “Like nearly everyone raised on the Kuskokwim, I am made of fish,” she wrote in 2020 in the commission’s annual report. “Not only do I crave eating fish year-round, but by May and June, I physically feel the need to catch and process fish.”

    But things were different now.

    “I have had to adjust my mindset,” she wrote, “because there are fewer fish.”

    And then, in 2022, the death of Rep. Don Young led to a wide-open scramble of a special election.

    The day of Young’s memorial service on Capitol Hill, Murkowski got a text from Peltola, according to the book Murkowski published last year. She wanted advice. She was thinking about getting into the race, calling it “the most crowded clown car ever.”

    Peltola jumped in.

    “One thing led to another,” she told the Times, “and of all the unlikely circumstances …”

    She won.

    ‘Really different values’

    Murkowski worried for her.

    Peltola, she thought, according to her book, was “a warm, positive, smart, and authentic Yup’ik woman.” Now she was in Washington. “I thought of her mostly as a friend and mom suddenly in the middle of the complex, high-pressure world of the House with no time to prepare,” wrote Murkowski, who declined a request to comment for this story. “I offered her my son’s room to stay in and tried to make sure she got fed.”

    Peltola wore Native mukluk boots to her swearing-in, alongside her third husband, Eugene Peltola Jr., her children and his. “I am humbled and deeply honored to be the first Alaska Native elected to this body, the first woman to hold Alaska’s House seat,” she said in her first floor speech.

    She won again in the regular election in November, earning a full two-year term. She joined the moderate Blue Dog caucus as well as the Western caucus — “106 Republicans,” as she said, “and me.” She was one of the most bipartisan Democrats, bucking her party on guns, border security, and oil and gas extraction.

    She also missed more than 17% of the votes — significantly more than most of her peers. And her uneven temperament was an all but open secret.

    “Everybody who knows anything about her, she has two things: a terrible work ethic and a terrible temper,” Art Hackney, a longtime Alaska-based Republican strategist who supports Sullivan, said in an interview this month in Anchorage.

    In May of her first full year in Congress, her mother died. Four months later, she lost her husband. Eugene Peltola, 57, piloting a small plane, was hauling the antlers and meat of a moose that a group of hunters had killed. He labored to take off from their tundra site, according to the National Transportation Safety Board report, and crashed on the side of a hill in low-lying bushes and shrubs. The closest hospital was 400 miles away. One of the hunters unbuckled his lap belt and covered him in blankets. Eugene Peltola died in less than two hours.

    Amid her grief, Mary Peltola lost her 2024 reelection bid, to Nick Begich, a Republican — albeit by less than 3 points in a year when President Donald Trump won Alaska by 14. She moved to Anchorage and was hired by a lobbying firm, making more than $340,000, according to a financial disclosure. Last fall, she was, briefly, a fellow at the Institute of Politics at the University of Chicago, teaching a seminar she titled “Blood Lines: What Does Being Native Even Mean?”

    All the while, Sen. Chuck Schumer, the minority leader, worked to persuade her to run for the Senate. He considered her one of his top recruits.

    “She is special,” said Lauren French, a Senate Majority PAC spokesperson. “She has everything that it takes to be really successful there.”

    Peltola thought so, too.

    “I know that there’s a tendency to say people are half something, half another,” Peltola told the Times. “But I always thought of it as double. I really had, you know, double the language, double the perspectives, really different perspectives, really different values, really different worldviews — but double. And I thought that was a huge advantage.”

    Behind the scenes

    All summer long, she was all over — in Alakanuk and Savoonga and Nome, in Gambell and Galena and Unalakleet, in Dutch Harbor and Fort Yukon and Tok — listening to voters in school gyms, union halls and community theaters, hugging, waving, and smiling on Facebook, Instagram, and X.

    In August, though, her campaign was on its way to a primary win and simultaneously in disarray. She fired a top adviser. She fired a deputy campaign manager. She changed her campaign manager. She made headlines for distancing herself from former Vice President Kamala Harris, who had issued a fundraising appeal on her behalf.

    Behind the scenes, as the Times reported last week, she could be a mercurial boss, with some former aides describing her as sometimes angry and profane. A spokesperson for the campaign denied any pattern of abusive behavior. “Like any person who has gone through multiple personal tragedies in the span of a few months, Mary sometimes struggled to deal with her grief,” a campaign spokesperson said.

    Through it all, Peltola was dealing with the legal fallout from her husband’s death. She was worried about her children.

    Her staff made her scarce to the mainstream press, providing scant details about where she would be campaigning. She was running what she called an “Alaska first” campaign, her staff insisted, focused on talking to Alaskans, not reporters from Washington or New York.

    But on the ground, the arm’s-length strategy made more sense. During recent events in Fairbanks, Peltola didn’t sound simply off script. At times, she sounded as if she had no script.

    “I’ll admit to you, every single place I go, I don’t go to the grocery store, I don’t go to the gas station, I don’t go to community events unless I have my passport,” she told a crowd that had packed a community center. She wore a blue flannel shirt and glasses with white rims. “Because early in this administration there was talk about ICE deporting Natives back to wherever it is they came from,” she said. “My mom’s family walked across the land bridge from Mongolia. …”

    People laughed.

    “We laugh,” she said, “at the things we’re most scared of.”

    The next afternoon, at a different community center in Fairbanks, she said she had forgotten to help her 18-year-old daughter register to vote in the primary in August — but promised she would be registered for November.

    She said that when she grew up in Alaska, it was “a state of abundance,” and that now “we are being starved out and nobody even cares.”

    She said she wasn’t even feeling “aspirational” anymore — and just wanted to “get back to where we were in 1999.”

    A few days later, at Alaska’s Senate Fisheries Debate in Kodiak, on the third anniversary of the death of her third husband, she wore salmon-shaped earrings made from the tusk of a walrus and asked moderators to repeat questions.

    “Can you restate it please?”

    “Say it again?”

    To succeed statewide here, said John-Henry Heckendorn, an Anchorage-based Democratic strategist, a Democrat must assemble a convoluted coalition almost at odds with itself — Natives and not, rural and not, commercial fishermen and subsistence fishermen, on and on.

    “Mary’s political talent,” he said, “has been her ability to inhabit those tensions.”

    She inhabits those tensions because she is born of those tensions. Peltola is Alaska and Nebraska, the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta and the Lower 48, Yup’ik collectivism and American individualism. Being “double” can be an advantage, she says, and she is not wrong. It also, though, can be a source of some untenable tug.

    She is leading by a bit in polling and by a lot in fundraising, but voters in Alaska are characteristically contrarian and unpredictable. This race, say independent analysts, could go either way.

    On a recent rainy, windy evening in Anchorage, at a canvassing kickoff at an Alaska Democratic Party field office, Peltola was introduced by the former president of the Alaska AFL-CIO. Peltola was wearing black Adidas and a kuspuk. She touched her face and smiled, looked out at her supporters and began her speech.

    “Where do you even start?” she said.

    This article originally appeared in the New York Times.

  • Medical plane goes missing carrying 6 people from Bermuda to Boston

    Medical plane goes missing carrying 6 people from Bermuda to Boston

    The U.S. Coast Guard was searching Saturday for a medical transfer plane that went missing while flying from Bermuda to Boston with six people on board, officials said.

    The search began after the Federal Aviation Administration issued an alert around 1:20 a.m. after losing contact with the plane, a Gulfstream G100. The search was taking place off the coast of Nantucket on Saturday, the Coast Guard said, adding that they had deployed planes, a helicopter and two boats, some sent from a station in Cape Cod, Mass.

    The missing plane was operated by an Ontario-based medical evacuation company, Latitude Air Ambulance, which flies people to hospitals and offers repatriation services, according to its website.

    On board the plane were two Canadian pilots, two Canadian medical staff members, and two people — including a patient — whom the plane had picked up in Bermuda, according to Clarence Togeretz, the air ambulance company’s operations manager.

    The plane took off from Bermuda’s lone airport, on St. David’s Island, at 11:41 p.m. Eastern time, according to data from the website FlightAware. It appears to have been flying consistently at an altitude of 24,000 feet before descending several thousand feet around 1:05 a.m.

    Aviation experts said that the reported rate of the descent was unusual.

    “I would say that indicates a significant problem,” said Brad Wheeler, a retired commercial pilot who flew for nearly 40 years and has flown between New York and Bermuda.

    Another expert agreed.

    “It’s clear they had something going wrong because they adjusted the speed just before the drop,” said Mary Schiavo, an aviation lawyer and former inspector general for the Transportation Department. “They were responding to something.”

    The plane was far north of the area known as the Bermuda Triangle, the mythical region of the Atlantic Ocean where planes and ships are said to have disappeared. Bermuda, a self-governing British territory, is home to 65,000 people and is about 780 miles from Boston.

    The plane had made several trips in recent weeks, including another flight between Bermuda and Boston on Sept. 24. It had also flown several times within Canada, and made one trip from Ontario to San Francisco and back.

    Recent photographs of the aircraft show it is mostly white with a black decal down the side and a red “star of life” medical symbol on the tail, as well as a Canadian flag.

    The plane was manufactured in Israel in 1996, records show, and it appears to have previously been used as a private jet.

    Latitude operates 10 planes, according to its website, including four Gulfstream G100s, which are typically staffed with a nurse and a respiratory therapist. The planes have ICU equipment, and some flights may also include a physician. It was unclear if the six people on board were all staff members or if the flight also included patients.

    Several other medical planes have crashed in the U.S. in recent years.

    One crashed in New Mexico during a short flight in May, killing four. In December, six people were killed when a Mexican navy plane crashed into Galveston Bay in Texas. And in January 2025, a medical plane crashed near the Roosevelt Mall in Northeast Philadelphia, killing all six people on board and one on the ground.

    This article originally appeared in The New York Times.

  • What China sees in ‘Jane Eyre,’ now required reading for ninth graders

    What China sees in ‘Jane Eyre,’ now required reading for ninth graders

    Nearly two centuries after Jane Eyre first defied the conventions of Victorian England, China is requiring a new generation of teenagers to read her story.

    The British classic has long been popular in China and was already recommended reading for schoolchildren. But this fall, ninth-grade students across the country are being required to read the novel in full, according to Chinese state media. One report in an official newspaper held it up as an antimaterialistic love story that young people could learn from.

    The book, in which the young orphan Jane Eyre works as a governess in the household of the wealthy but elusive Mr. Rochester, is widely celebrated in China for its themes of independence and equality between women and men.

    A Chinese translation appeared as early as 1925, and there have since been numerous translations and adaptations for stage and screen. A British film adaptation was shown in Chinese theaters in 1979, just a few years after the end of the Cultural Revolution, as China was reopening to foreign culture.

    Ping Zhu, a literature professor at the University of California, San Diego, who researches Chinese feminism and literature, said the novel is compatible with the Chinese government’s vision of women’s equality — one that can coexist with traditional gender roles and the heterosexual nuclear family. Its inclusion in the ninth grade textbook comes as China struggles with population decline and the government encourages young people to marry and have children, she said.

    “Jane Eyre is about an independent woman, but she’s not too outrageous in her challenge of patriarchal power,” Zhu said. By the end of the novel, Jane has married Mr. Rochester and had a child. “All these things are what the Chinese government wants the younger generation to do,” Zhu said.

    Published by Charlotte Brontë in Britain in 1847, Jane Eyre was striking for its depiction of a poor young woman insisting on her independence, dignity, and equality in a society in which women — particularly married women — had severely limited legal and economic autonomy.

    The novel has long been celebrated in China for its feminist themes, with state media often quoting Jane’s declaration to Mr. Rochester: “Do you think, because I am poor, obscure, plain, and little, I am soulless and heartless? You think wrong! I have as much soul as you — and full as much heart!”

    Jane Eyre was progressive in its 19th century context, but some contemporary feminists would view its idea of liberation as limited, Zhu said.

    The kind of feminism depicted in the novel has long been supported by the Chinese Communist Party, Zhu said. It is at odds with how the party sees more modern kinds of feminism, like the #MeToo movement, she added, “or the kind of feminism that teaches women to not marry and not have children — that is a feminism they cannot accept at all.”

    In recent years, the Chinese government has restricted some other portrayals of romance and relationships.

    Authorities have detained dozens of writers of Boys’ Love, a genre of gay romance novels written largely by and for straight women, that state media said could shape young readers’ ideas about sexuality.

    Regulators have also sought to rein in a popular genre of micro-dramas about wealthy executives falling in love with less privileged people, urging creators to avoid glorifying marriages to powerful and wealthy people.

    State media has suggested that novels like Jane Eyre offer young readers an alternative to what they call superficial love stories. An article in Beijing Daily, an official Chinese Communist Party publication, argued that teaching literary classics like Jane Eyre could help children “establish a more balanced value system.”

    Chinese readers have long found their own meanings in Jane’s story.

    Vicky Li, 46, read Jane Eyre when she was young and saw something of herself in its hero. Years later, she said, she shared the novel with her daughters, now 13 and 15, because she wanted them to become independent and courageous.

    Li said she was happy to see the novel included in the textbook, even if some might think Jane did not embody the modern idea of a strong woman. “Given the historical context in which she lived, the choices she made were truly groundbreaking — a profound act of defiance,” she said.

    The novel itself complicates the idea that Jane ultimately submits to convention. She leaves Mr. Rochester rather than become his mistress and returns only after inheriting a fortune. Mr. Rochester has lost his estate and his sight, dramatically altering the balance of power.

    Wang Sirui, 30, pointed to Jane’s refusal to become a mistress — even if it meant starving to death — as a key moment that showed the character’s commitment to independence.

    “The core of the work lies in the message that a woman must make choices based on her own will and values, rather than succumbing to various temptations,” said Wang, who first read the book when she was 13.

    Zhu said Chinese authorities may ultimately have limited control over what messages young people take from Jane Eyre.

    “Literary works, especially these great literary works, they’re always very rich, and they’re open to millions of ways of interpretation,” she said.

    This article originally appeared in the New York Times.

  • Christa Pike was unconscious and on ventilator after execution attempt

    Christa Pike was unconscious and on ventilator after execution attempt

    NASHVILLE — Christa Pike was unconscious, intubated, and on a ventilator in a Nashville hospital as of Thursday evening, a day after surviving a botched execution attempt, her lawyers said in a court filing.

    Ms. Pike, 50, was critically ill, they wrote in the Friday filing in Davidson County Chancery Court, and both of her arms were swollen, burned and blistered when she arrived at the hospital.

    Her condition, some legal experts said, raises questions about whether the state could try to execute her again if she is not fully cognizant or capable of understanding what is happening. Pike, convicted of the 1995 murder of a classmate, is believed to be the first person to have survived after receiving drugs during a lethal injection attempt in the modern era of capital punishment.

    The disclosure is the most detailed update on Pike’s health since she survived two rounds of pentobarbital, the drug used as part of Tennessee’s lethal injection protocol, on Wednesday evening.

    “Hospital staff are working to save Ms. Pike’s life and to clear the pentobarbital from her system,” the lawyers wrote. In a separate statement, they said she was also receiving treatment for “significant injuries to both arms.”

    In a statement, Luke Ihnen, who represents Pike through the Federal Defender Services of Eastern Tennessee, said that “we are working closely with those closest to Christa to respect her wishes, safeguard her privacy and protect her rights as a patient during this extraordinarily difficult time.”

    The disclosure about Pike’s condition was part of an emergency filing in which her lawyers asked a Nashville judge to order the preservation of state prison records related to her attempted execution. The records were, they wrote, evidence of “incompetent and reckless actions.”

    The Tennessee Department of Correction declined to comment, citing the pending litigation. A spokeswoman for the Tennessee Attorney General, Jonathan Skrmetti, did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

    Gov. Bill Lee, a Republican, paused all executions through the end of the year and ordered an investigation into what went wrong Wednesday. But Lee is in the final months of his term.

    The front-runner to replace him, Sen. Marsha Blackburn, a Republican, said in a statement she would try to execute Pike again.

    “This process has only extended the pain for the family of Colleen Slemmer,” she said. “Their family and the families of other victims deserve swift justice.”

    Pike’s lawyers have asked Mr. Lee to grant her clemency and allow her to serve the rest of her life in prison, condemning what they have called a cruel and torturous execution attempt.

    Two decades ago, the U.S. Supreme Court barred the execution of people with mental disabilities as a violation of the Constitution’s Eighth Amendment ban on cruel and unusual punishment. The court has also barred the execution of people who lack a “rational understanding” of the reason they are to be put to death.

    “If you don’t understand you’re about to die, and do not understand you’re about to die because the state believes you have committed murder, then you may not be executed,” said Christopher Slobogin, the director of the Criminal Justice Program at Vanderbilt University.

    Pike’s medical condition also presents a difficult scenario for the medical staff working to save her life: If she recovers, Tennessee might try to kill her again.

    “Professionals in healthcare are faced with difficult moral situations all the time — this is a particularly challenging one,” said Jeff Khan, the director of the Johns Hopkins Berman Institute of Bioethics. “I also think that they know that their job is to do the best they can for the patient in front of them and not to think about that.”

    This article originally appeared in The New York Times.

  • Russia is planning its most powerful blow yet to try to freeze Ukraine

    Russia is planning its most powerful blow yet to try to freeze Ukraine

    KYIV, Ukraine — For months, Ukrainian officials have warned people to brace for what could be their hardest winter at war. Russia, they said, would use its ever more powerful weapons to try to cripple the country’s power grid. The first big strike was expected later this fall, with the first bite of cold.

    Russia did not wait that long. Before dawn on Wednesday, missiles and drones slammed into a large thermal power plant and other energy facilities, shaking the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, with explosions. By morning, several neighborhoods were without power and water.

    The attack, Ukrainian officials said, marked the opening salvo of a new campaign to plunge Ukrainian cities into cold and darkness, with the ultimate goal of breaking people’s morale and crippling the war effort. Russia has waged similar campaigns each year, with mixed results, but it is approaching this winter armed with stocks of ballistic missiles and jet-powered drones that Ukraine has struggled to intercept.

    The scale of Russia’s ambition to freeze Ukrainians into submission is evident in a document that the Ukrainian energy minister, Denys Shmyhal, showed to European partners in Paris two weeks ago, according to two people familiar with his presentation.

    Shmyhal, the people said, described the document as an intercepted Russian plan to cause the energy system to collapse through methodical attacks. The plan, a copy of which the New York Times obtained, describes a campaign of strikes using up to 1,000 missiles, drones, and bombs. They would target a wide range of facilities, including electrical substations, hydroelectric and thermal power plants, and boiler houses.

    Most alarming, the document says that Russia intends to force Ukraine’s three operating nuclear plants — the backbone of its power infrastructure — to shut down by firing missiles at the electrical switchyards that connect them to the grid. The switchyards sit less than a mile from the reactors.

    The plan also says that Moscow will target Ukraine’s water system, including pumping stations and wastewater treatment facilities, with dozens of ballistic missiles and glide bombs. Russia has never attacked such sites on a large scale before. Ukrainian officials have privately expressed concern that the country has limited backup plans should it face severe water disruptions.

    Residents on Volodymyrska Hill in Kyiv, Ukraine. As winter nears, Ukrainian officials warn Russia may target key infrastructure to deprive cities of heat, power, and water.Jedrzej Nowicki

    The ultimate goal is to cut off major Ukrainian cities from power, heat and water, which could set off a humanitarian crisis. Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Odesa are highlighted as top targets, with plans to cut electricity supplies in those cities by 90%, reduce heating supplies by up to 90% and severely disrupt the sewage system.

    The New York Times had no way to independently authenticate the document, which is dated from August and written in Russian. But President Vladimir Putin of Russia has publicly stated that his forces will wage an extensive campaign this winter to knock out Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, framing it as retaliation for Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries.

    Shmyhal spoke in vague terms about the document to the Ukrainian media a week ago, saying, “Our partners, like us, were struck by its cynicism, by this cold, terrorist calculation of how to destroy our energy sector.”

    Whether Russia will follow through on the strategy laid out in the document — and whether it will succeed if it does so — remains to be seen.

    Ukraine has spent the past several months preparing for the winter, building protective structures above critical facilities, such as substations that carry electricity across the country. Civilians, most of whom endured severe power and heating cuts last winter, have stocked up on batteries and small gas-powered heaters.

    Ukrainian authorities have spent hundreds of millions of dollars to repair power plants and substations, as well as to install smaller energy facilities like gas-powered turbines that are harder to strike. Ukraine has also invested in strengthening the grid to withstand cold-weather demand and reroute power when attacks knock out transmission lines.

    Energy experts caution that these measures can at best cushion the expected blow, not stop it. Olena Pavlenko, head of DiXi Group, a Ukrainian energy think tank, said that four winters of war had left the country’s power grid so weakened that getting through another would be like “running a marathon with only one lung.”

    Memories of last winter, by far the hardest of the war so far, in part because of particularly bitter temperatures, still loom large for Ukrainians and explain their dread of another Russian strike campaign.

    As Russia repeatedly hit power and heating plants, Kyiv residents regularly endured a dozen hours or more without electricity each day, according to data shared by DTEK, the country’s largest private energy company and the capital’s electricity distributor.

    Olha Skorokhod, 41, a resident of central Kyiv, said that last January she had to bathe her daughter Zoriana, 3, in cold water after losing heat for two weeks.Jedrzej Nowicki

    Olha Skorokhod, a resident of central Kyiv, said she lost heat for two weeks last January as temperatures outside fell well below freezing. She had to wash her 3-year-old daughter, Zoriana, in cold water, and worried that she might get sick as a result. Changing the child’s clothes was an ordeal as the cold nipped at her bare skin. At one point, Skorokhod tried to warm the apartment by heating bricks on a small gas stove. It barely made a difference.

    In high-rises across the capital, residents on the top floors often had no water because the pumps lost power. To get to their apartments, they had to climb flight after flight of stairs because the elevators were out of service. Even when the power returned for a few hours, some avoided the elevators, afraid of getting trapped during a sudden outage.

    To avoid a repeat this winter, power crews have been hard at work. On Monday, a repair team from DTEK was busy replacing an old transformer with a new one near Kyiv. They lifted the old unit off a pole and replaced it with a new transformer in a protective casing.

    “There’s old equipment that simply can’t handle the load anymore,” said the crew leader, Eduard Kashkov, 57. “Some of the equipment is as old as I am.”

    Last winter showed that local equipment can fail when power returns after an outage and large numbers of people plug in at once to charge batteries, Kashkov said. The new transformer, he added, was built to handle the surge in consumption.

    Speaking to parliament in August, Shmyhal expressed confidence that Ukraine would enter the winter well prepared. The country had about 15 gigawatts of available capacity, he said, and he expected it to grow to more than 21 gigawatts by year end. That would be enough to cover peak demand, which reached about 18 gigawatts last winter.

    But his projections did not account for attacks like Wednesday’s, which can undo months of repairs. Maria Tsaturian, an energy analyst at the research group Ukraine Facility Platform, said it could take only a few attacks to knock out the five gigawatts that Ukraine had restored in recent months. She pointed to the power outages after Wednesday’s strike as evidence of the grid’s fragility.

    Russia’s intercepted plan appears designed to collapse Ukraine’s already weakened grid.

    It lays out three stages of attacks. The first would knock out substations near Ukraine’s western borders, which import electricity from Europe. The second would take out hydroelectric power plants. The third would force Ukraine’s three operating nuclear plants offline. (A fourth nuclear plant, near the southern city of Zaporizhzhia, was captured by Russian forces early in the war and is not operating.)

    The goal of the attacks, the document says, is to eliminate nearly 15 gigawatts of generating capacity — as much as Ukraine had at the end of the summer.

    This article originally appeared in The New York Times.

  • ‘I couldn’t let all of them die’: Pilot on FlyDubai flight recalls sudden attack

    ‘I couldn’t let all of them die’: Pilot on FlyDubai flight recalls sudden attack

    NEW DELHI — The Indian pilot who was attacked during a FlyDubai flight this week said Friday that he opened the cockpit door despite grievous injuries, allowing passengers and crew members to overpower the copilot who had assailed him.

    “I was fighting for my life,” Capt. Smit Machchhar said on a video call from his hospital bed with Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India, in his first public remarks since the attack. Video of their conversation was released by the Indian government.

    “I was so badly hurt that I had fallen to the ground,” Machchhar said. “But I knew I had to act,” he added. “I could feel the aircraft was going down.”

    The attack, on a flight from Dubai, United Arab Emirates, to Tel Aviv, Israel, carrying about 170 passengers, sent the aircraft into a terrifying plunge. Israeli officials have said the copilot appeared to have tried to crash the plane after stabbing Machchhar, although investigators are still trying to understand the assailant’s motives and how the attack unfolded. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel said the copilot had undergone “Islamist radical indoctrination” but did not elaborate.

    Passengers were able to overpower the attacker, while two people aboard with flying experience helped land the plane in Saudi Arabia.

    Machchhar, who said he had 17 years of flying experience, including 11 as a captain, said he knew instinctively what was happening to the aircraft, even as he lay injured on the cockpit floor. The Boeing 737 Max 8 he was flying plummeted more than 16,000 feet in 30 seconds during the attack.

    Machchhar told Modi that he recalled telling himself: “Smit, this is the last push, just do it. The door is right there.”

    “I was doing it to save myself,” he said, “but I also knew I couldn’t let all of them die.”

    Machchhar, who was hospitalized in Saudi Arabia then transferred to the UAE, told Modi that he was receiving good medical care.

    The episode has made him a hero in India.

    “Your courage and presence of mind — you made a decision within a fraction of a second, and saved so many lives,” Modi told the captain during their conversation. “You have made the entire country proud.”

    Modi’s office put out the video of the split-screen conversation on a day of nationwide protests in India, including in the capital, New Delhi. Protesters are demanding the resignation of the country’s chief election officer for trying to rig voter rolls in the favor of Modi’s party.

    Machchhar grew up in Mumbai and entered aviation almost by accident after attending a seminar on flying. He later became a captain and a trainer of aspiring pilots. In a podcast interview last year, he described flying as something he felt “blessed” to do and emphasized the importance of pilots being rested and prepared to perform under pressure.

    This article originally appeared in The New York Times.

  • What if ADHD isn’t about attention at all? | Expert Opinion

    What if ADHD isn’t about attention at all? | Expert Opinion

    As a psychiatrist, I increasingly see people seeking help for a familiar constellation of troubles. They have a hard time staying focused. They often forget things. They suffer from disorganization, restlessness, and impulsivity. They struggle with spreadsheets and memos, with laundry and food preparation, with showing up at appointments and meeting deadlines — with tackling, in other words, the necessities of daily life.

    Increasingly, these patients view their problems as ones of “attention,” as more people identify with the diagnosis of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder, or ADHD.

    The rise in ADHD diagnoses — along with the use of prescribed stimulants like Ritalin or Adderall — has led to great debate among the public and within my field of psychiatry. Has the medical establishment finally recognized a long-overlooked disorder? Or has the diagnosis become too capacious, overmedicalizing ordinary difficulties?

    But this debate runs up against a fundamental scientific uncertainty. The condition’s name notwithstanding, “attention deficit” may be the wrong conceptual framing for ADHD. Scientists have been exploring a more basic quandary: What is the condition in the first place?

    A major study published last year in the journal Cell spoke directly to this question. It looked at how stimulant medications influence the functioning of brain circuits in children. The researchers found that the drugs seemed to affect brain networks involved in salience, reward, and arousal. But they found no detectable changes in the brain’s attention networks, whether or not the child had been diagnosed with ADHD.

    It’s a clear signal that the most popular mental model for ADHD — as a deficit of attention that stimulants remedy — might not be entirely accurate.

    What would a better mental model look like? Part of the answer is understanding that “attention” means different things in the clinic and in the neuroscience lab. For scientists studying brain functions, attention means something narrow: the selective amplification of relevant information. It can be measured by laboratory tasks that assess, for example, how well someone ignores irrelevant or conflicting information or finds a target hidden among distractions.

    But that’s generally not what people mean when they are talking about attention problems in ADHD.

    The classic features of ADHD include things like not staying on task, losing the thread of a conversation, and forgetting instructions. They are failures of “sustained engagement.” If attention is about the mind homing in on what’s relevant in a given moment, engagement is about keeping that spotlight pointed at the same target over time. Doing so may be less a matter of filtering out distractions and more a matter of whether the task registers in the brain as worth doing in the first place.

    Once this distinction is appreciated, the results of the Cell study stop being contradictory. Stimulants create what looks like improved attention and focus, but they really do so by enhancing the salience of mundane activities — tricking the brain into assigning greater worth and significance to things like math homework and laundry.

    This also helps explain why stimulants like amphetamines calm down hyperactive children. People without ADHD who use amphetamines often find themselves jittery and revved up, so the calming effect may seem counterintuitive. However, if a child is restless and fidgeting because the task at hand isn’t rewarding enough, then it makes sense that stimulants would help that child sit still and stay engaged rather than seek stimulation elsewhere.

    The Cell study’s results focused mostly on what stimulants do, but scientists have been challenging the idea that ADHD is a deficit of attention since the 1990s.

    In a 1992 experiment, developmental psychologist Edmund Sonuga-Barke and his colleagues gave hyperactive children repeated choices between a small but immediate reward and a larger, delayed one. The children preferred the immediate reward only when that choice allowed them to end the experiment sooner. The problem was not necessarily an inability to wait, but an aversion to waiting itself.

    Sonuga-Barke later argued that ADHD could arise from several underlying causes, including difficulty stopping an action once it’s underway, intense dislike of waiting, and disruptions in the brain’s ability to track events over time. Psychologists can measure capacities such as working memory, impulse control, and the ability to wait for a reward with standardized tasks. This is called neuropsychological testing. But no single abnormality turns up in all people with ADHD on these tests, and no deficit is unique to them. This is why neuropsychological testing is not considered a gold standard for diagnosis.

    Clinical neuropsychologist Russell Barkley proposed that the basic problem in ADHD is with a person’s ability to inhibit behaviors and regulate emotions, and with motivation and working memory. People with ADHD can live in a shrunken present moment, in which future consequences carry little significance and weight. Barkley’s shorthand for this, time blindness, has become a popular characterization. His later work showed emotional self-regulation as a core feature of ADHD, manifesting as emotional impulsiveness and low frustration tolerance.

    While names for medical conditions denoting outdated hypotheses can be harmless etymological curiosities — malaria means “bad air,” for example — incorrect names like “attention deficit” can invite confusion. The focus on attention as the central problem for ADHD means those who struggle with lateness, boredom, emotional volatility, and the inability to start anything without the pressure of a deadline might remain undiagnosed because these issues don’t sound like a problem of “attention.”

    On the other hand, recognition of these aspects of ADHD has not only made the boundaries of the disorder harder to specify, but it has also raised uncomfortable questions about whether some of these problems make sense as a diagnosable medical disorder. The prospect of using medications to help children sit still in class and focus on tedious coursework, or using medications to allow adults to tolerate periods of intense boredom and dreary housework, makes many people uncomfortable.

    It’s also the case that some people reach for medications in an effort to maintain lifestyles that are unsustainable for them. Modern work environments heavily emphasize the ability to handle multiple tasks and tedious work, and that has been compounded by other aspects of 21st-century living, such as cellphones and social media, that have arguably made us distractible and impatient. The result of all this is that modern life becomes more disabling for those with ADHD.

    ADHD may be poorly named, but the consensus in psychiatry is that it’s a genuine problem for which there are effective treatments. In observational studies, treating ADHD with medication is associated with reductions in death, self-harm, transport accidents, criminal convictions, and substance misuse.

    As a society, we are struggling to answer these complicated questions that the science and treatment of ADHD throw at us. A recent Channel 4 documentary in Britain, “The Great ADHD Myth?” characterized ADHD as a “social construct” rather than a disorder of the brain. This binary tendency to locate the problem either in the brain or in the environment can overlook how impairment arises from an interaction of mental capacities and situational demands. When disadvantages in mental abilities become disabling under the demands of modern life, those who struggle will desire and even need treatment. But it’s also worth understanding that the problem is not entirely with the individual.

    There are many pathways in the brain that probably influence the difficulties in focus that characterize ADHD, but scientific investigations into causes and treatments point toward problems with impulse control and motivation more than a defective capacity for attention. This accumulating data underscores how even psychiatrists and scientists can change their thinking about what a diagnosis means based on more research into how the brain works. What’s perhaps most important for understanding ADHD is to not allow its name to confuse us; it’s a poor guide to how the human mind works.

  • Central Park was her home and her studio. She was killed there.

    Central Park was her home and her studio. She was killed there.

    NEW YORK — Francis Lee Rogers was a fixture in Central Park’s Ramble, a wooded area that is popular with birders.

    She spent her days painting the Ramble’s birds and kept her homemade network of feeders filled with seed, as legions of bird lovers walked by hoping to catch a glimpse of warblers and sparrows.

    For years, Rogers, who was homeless, brushed off concerns about the perils of a woman in her 60s — or anyone, for that matter — spending nights in and around the Ramble as she largely had for decades.

    Last Sunday morning, Rogers, 63, was found dead, beaten and stabbed in the rustic wooden gazebo where she spent her nights, a short walk from the Central Park Boathouse, an upscale restaurant known for leisurely lunches and weddings.

    She was found barefoot and covered in dirt, her body stabbed repeatedly and her head severely beaten, according to two law enforcement officials with knowledge of the matter.

    Chillingly, her long graying hair, which she wore in signature tight braids, had been shaved off.

    Shortly after the attack, Jonathan Robles, 36, walked into the Central Park police precinct and told officers that a woman in the park had threatened him, one of the officials said. Robles later told investigators that he killed Rogers.

    The police charged him with murder and possession of a weapon. Robles, who was living in transitional housing in a midtown hotel, had been arrested twice in New York City, both times for nonviolent crimes, including leaving an IHOP without paying the bill, the official said.

    Murders are rare in Central Park, a haven for tourists and New Yorkers alike. There were none this year through Sept. 20, and none last year during the same period, according to police data.

    In a city where people largely go about their lives in anonymity, especially the homeless population, Rogers stood out as a familiar figure in the park.

    Known as Lee, she chatted with rich and poor, native New Yorkers and foreigners and tourists. She had hardy mountain-woman looks, with her long braids spilling out from her wide-brimmed birder’s hat, running down over layers of wool sweaters.

    She carried a large rucksack filled with her watercolors, oils and paintings and sketches in progress. And she was never without her crooked walking stick or her sketchbook of pencil drawings of birds and notes about their colors.

    She was devoted to the network of bird feeders she had rigged in the Ramble by hanging them with lines looped over high branches.

    “For years, she was the only person maintaining those bird feeders in the Ramble,” said Lincoln Karim, a wildlife photographer who knew Rogers for about 25 years. “She would spend hundreds of dollars on birdseed and suet.”

    In the perhaps three decades that Rogers had been living largely in and around the park, she sold hundreds of paintings, her friends said.

    Most of the sales came by word of mouth among local birders. But she also gained a following among those who saw her working on her small, nearly pointillist renderings at her regular table in the Boathouse restaurant at the Ramble’s eastern edge.

    In this affordable cafe section, Rogers could nurse a cup of coffee for hours, often using the cup’s plastic lid as a palette. It was her atelier, surrounded by large windows overlooking the Ramble and the lake.

    “She was a fixture — she came by the same time every day, carrying a big backpack, and she was always welcome,” said Dean Poll, who operated the restaurant from 2000 until 2022. “I gave her her space and she never bothered anybody.”

    “She was like family,” he said. “She made us Christmas cards that were beautiful. We still have them.”

    Rogers, who also went by the name Elise Bainbridge Hill, told the New York Times in 2012 that her sleeping spots varied from the steps of local churches to a women’s shelter near Park Avenue in cold weather. She told a documentarian in a film released in 2016 that she ran away from her abusive childhood home in New Jersey and initially became a prostitute in New York.

    Painting was her escape from life on the streets, she said, with Central Park as her oasis from Manhattan’s bustle.

    In conversation, Rogers would often slip seamlessly from detailed discussions about bird species to digressions about conspiracy theories.

    “She knew a lot about a lot of things but then she would just slip into outrageous stuff, like her flying in spaceships,” Karim said. “But she was a damn good painter, I have to say.”

    Karim said he helped Rogers sell several works, with smaller ones fetching $300 and a large oil painting going for $1,200. “She had enough money to get off the street,” he said.

    Joe Lopez, 64, of Manhattan, a caterer who knew Rogers for 15 years, said he bought several of her illustrations for as much as $400, including one of Pale Male, the celebrity red-tailed hawk that captivated the city’s bird-watching community from his nest on a Fifth Avenue luxury building.

    Rogers, who used a public bathroom in the park to wash up, took pride in keeping a neat appearance. But more recently she would go barefoot, Karim said, or sometimes wrap her feet in cardboard.

    The gazebo had become her regular sleeping spot. Just before her death, she weathered the nor’easter that buffeted the region by sleeping on a bench beneath a green tarp, with her belongings and painting supplies around her.

    On Monday, some of her friends trudged through the rain to pay their respects. One of them, Moises Diaz, 71, of the Upper East Side, lit a candle for Rogers, whom he had seen for years on his daily walks.

    Diaz, who is also an artist, played a recording of a conversation he had with Rogers about six months ago. She had asked him about his recent work, a wall hanging he had made out of foam.

    “She had a beautiful voice,” he said as he listened to the recording. “There’s a lot of mean people that come to this place — a lot, but not her.”

    Lopez came by, too. He brought along a satchel of drawings by Rogers, including the one of Pale Male. He called it “a masterpiece.”

    “To me, I was buying something beautiful, but it was also money I knew she needed,” Lopez said. “She wasn’t a homeless person to me, she was a genuine special character. The birders really respected her.”

    This article originally appeared in the New York Times.

  • Mortgage rates keep climbing, leading some buyers to riskier loans

    Mortgage rates keep climbing, leading some buyers to riskier loans

    Mortgage rates continue to creep higher, compounding an affordability crunch that has squeezed many Americans’ wallets. Now soaring rates are prompting some homebuyers to roll the dice that they will fall in a few years.

    The average 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage, the most popular home loan in the United States, rose to 7.28% this week, up from 7.03% last week and the highest since November 2023, mortgage financing giant Freddie Mac said Thursday.

    “Mortgage rates jumped to their highest level in almost three years, pushing borrowers to the sidelines,” said Joel Kan, deputy chief economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association, a trade group.

    Mortgage rates had fallen below 6% at the end of February but began to inch higher after the United States and Israel attacked Iran on Feb. 28. The war in Iran has driven up energy costs, which in turn has stoked inflation fears. In response, investors have pushed up the yield on the 10-year Treasury note, which on Thursday reached its highest level since 2002.

    The 10-year Treasury yield underpins a wide range of consumer and corporate borrowing, including mortgages. With the yield climbing quickly, the jump in mortgage rates this week was the biggest since October 2022.

    Adjustable-rate mortgages can be significantly lower than their fixed-rate counterparts, real estate experts say, sometimes as much as a full percentage point, a difference that can potentially save homebuyers thousands of dollars annually. The ARM, as the loan is known, also comes with the risk that rates will continue to climb, hurting owners when the loan resets.

    ARMs are an increasingly enticing option among buyers put off by the jump in fixed-rate mortgages, Kan said, adding, “They are looking for more ways to get into that home.”

    The association reported a recent uptick in the share of ARM applications, to 10.3% of overall mortgage applications, the highest in a year.

    Here’s what you need to know about adjustable-rate mortgages.

    How does an adjustable-rate mortgage work?

    Fixed-rate mortgages lock in one rate over the lifetime of the loan, usually 30 years. ARMs, on the other hand, offer a low “teaser” rate for a set time, typically five, seven, or 10 years, after which they readjust to the market rate, often annually, for the remainder of the loan. This helps owners keep their monthly payments lower during the introductory period.

    Borrowers who use ARMs are betting that mortgage rates will eventually fall, giving them the opportunity to refinance their loan at a lower rate or sell their home before the introductory period ends and the rate begins to fluctuate.

    ARMs make up a small portion of the overall mortgage market, which is dominated by fixed-rate products. But now that fixed-rate mortgages have climbed above 7%, interest in ARMs is starting to grow, said Archana Pradhan, the principal economist at Cotality, a provider of housing market data.

    The national average rate for an ARM with a five-year introductory rate that resets annually is 6.56%, according to Bankrate.com.

    “The wider the gap between ARM rates and the fixed rates, the stronger the incentive to choose an ARM,” Pradhan said.

    How safe is an ARM?

    ARMs offer savings for borrowers, but they also introduce market volatility.

    The loans were popular during the early 2000s housing bubble, peaking at around 36% of overall mortgage applications in 2005, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association. After the housing market crashed in 2008, the share of applications for ARMs plunged to about 6%.

    Stricter underwriting standards have made ARMs safer for consumers, who are protected by regulatory limits that prevent the variable rate from jumping too high.

    Still, they are not for everyone, said Nick Rocco, a mortgage loan officer in the Baltimore area. Borrowers need to have a plan for what to do after the introductory period ends regardless of where mortgage rates are. “There is no crystal ball,” he said.

    Who should apply for an ARM?

    Nearly 72% of homebuyers who take out an ARM have a chance within five years to refinance it into a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage that is at least 0.5 percentage points lower than their original rate, according to a report from Redfin, an online real estate marketplace.

    That can translate into big savings every month for some borrowers, Pradhan said. “It’s more meaningful for higher loans, because they are able to save hundreds of dollars compared to the lower amount of loans,” she said.

    Rocco said he recently worked with a couple who used an ARM to finance the purchase of a $750,000 home. The buyers had experience with ARMs, he said, and knew to put 20% down, which lowered their introductory rate.

    “They have a little more risk tolerance, and they’re a little bit more comfortable knowing the fact that they can refinance out of that adjustable rate,” he said.

    But Pradhan said ARMs made better sense for buyers who intended to sell after the introductory period ended. “You are not intending to live in the house forever,” she said.

    “Refinancing may be an exit strategy, but it’s not a guarantee,” she added. “One of the risks of an ARM is the higher payment in the future.”

    This article originally appeared in the New York Times.

  • As violence falls, crime isn’t paying as a Republican line of attack

    As violence falls, crime isn’t paying as a Republican line of attack

    A central line of attack in the waning weeks of the 2026 midterms comes straight out of the tried and true Republican playbook: Democrats are soft on crime.

    But as crime rates plummet across the country, it’s been a hard case to make. In Michigan and Georgia, North Carolina and Texas, Republicans have struggled to pull voters back to the violence and disorder that followed the onset of COVID-19.

    Nowhere is that clearer than in the Senate race in North Carolina. One Republican ad there tried to blame Roy Cooper, the former governor running for Senate, for a murder that took place in the wrong Carolina, the one to the south. Another asserted that he had given the man who fatally stabbed a Ukrainian woman on a light rail train in Charlotte, N.C., last year an early release from prison; he did not.

    A third presented the story of a man whose son had been murdered, implying that Cooper’s policies were responsible. After it was released, the father, a Democrat, complained that he had been “swindled, hoodwinked” into making a political endorsement when he had been told the topic was gun violence.

    Republicans have soldiered on, spending $18.5 million in North Carolina on ads about lawlessness and murder. But polls show Cooper, a former governor and attorney general, consistently leading his Republican opponent, Michael Whatley.

    “It really does not seem to be having much traction at this point, and the folks who are long schooled and well versed in North Carolina politics have wondered why Michael Whatley didn’t take a different approach,” said Mitch Kokai, a senior political analyst at the John Locke Foundation, a free-market think tank based in Raleigh, N.C..

    For Republicans, that different approach is proving elusive. The chaos at the border — a reliable political target since 2018 — has calmed. State laws barring transgender students in athletics have taken some of the sting out of that issue as well. The war on Iran is unpopular. Voters say they are most concerned about the high costs of everyday necessities.

    And crime — usually a winning issue for Republicans, who are generally more trusted to keep law and order — is seeing a staggering drop. The downward trend that began during the Biden administration has only accelerated. One analysis found that the murder rate last year was the lowest it has been since 1900.

    “This is the first election really in my lifetime where I have felt that it’s not an issue,” said Holly Harris, a veteran Republican strategist who is now the executive vice president of advocacy at Arnold Ventures, a philanthropy with a focus on criminal justice. “I remember when I was at the Republican Party years ago, every ad that we wrote was focused on crime. And it’s just not hitting the same mark.”

    The good news on crime has posed a challenge for Republicans. How do you take credit for the peace while simultaneously blaming the other side for what President Donald Trump has called “American carnage?” At a recent campaign rally in Gastonia, N.C., Trump pivoted from blaming Cooper for the “blood-soaked killing fields” of North Carolina to hailing his own record within half an hour.

    “Last year, we achieved the largest drop in violent crime ever recorded,” he said.

    In The Charlotte Observer, Andrew Dunn, a conservative political commentator, wrote that the president’s description of the state as “one of the most violent and one of the worst in the whole nation” would backfire, even with those who agreed that Cooper had a poor record on crime.

    “Who is buying that description of North Carolina?” Dunn asked.

    Violent crime in North Carolina this year is down 22% compared with the same period in 2024, outpacing the national decline of 14%, according to data collected by the Crime Index. Property crime is down 18% compared with 2024, about the same rate as the national decline.

    Republicans have spent $105 million on ads about crime, more than a quarter of total spending, compared with $35.5 million spent by Democrats, according to an analysis of spending on federal races in the general election by AdImpact, a media tracking firm.

    In the previous two election cycles, attempts to tie all Democrats to far-left positions like defunding the police and abolishing prisons proved effective, in part because crime had spiked to alarming highs right after the pandemic and the police brutality protests in 2020.

    Such attacks were often met with an uncomfortable silence, and Republicans were able to connect crime to a border that appeared to be exceptionally porous. Candidates repeatedly raised examples of violence committed by immigrants without permanent legal status and rising rates of fentanyl overdoses.

    Those links have broken as drug overdoses drop, the border grows quiet, and even some Republican lawmakers say the president’s immigration crackdown has gone too far.

    In the current climate, soft-on-crime attacks risk looking out of tune with the electorate’s deeper concerns, “especially when voters feel that they’re getting robbed at the gas station every day,” said Jim Kessler, the executive director of Third Way, a centrist Democratic organization in Washington.

    Cooper, who was first elected to statewide office 26 years ago, as attorney general, has noted that many of Whatley’s accusations were found to be false and has defended his record. A campaign spokesperson said, “Roy spent his career putting rapists and violent criminals behind bars and signing tough-on-crime laws.”

    “Most people look at Cooper, they don’t see somebody that is soft on crime,” said Carter Wrenn, a veteran Republican political consultant.

    But for candidates without Cooper’s profile, strategists have counseled against trying to out-tough Republicans on crime. “If you’re going to be Republican lite, then people are going to pick Republicans,” said Celinda Lake, a longtime Democratic strategist.

    The Vera Institute, a nonprofit that works to reduce mass incarceration and has used focus groups to test messaging on criminal justice policies, has offered “serious about safety” as a rival slogan. The idea was initially met with some mockery — one social media post said it sounded like a college sex talk — but candidates have increasingly adopted safety as a buzzword, with a new set of talking points to go with it.

    James Talarico in Texas and Dr. Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan, both Democratic candidates for the Senate, talk about recruiting and training police officers and explicitly link public safety to increased spending on housing, education, mental health care, and drug treatment.

    El-Sayed, the former health director for Wayne County, Mich., has gone from praising the “defund the police” movement for wanting to devote more resources to fighting poverty, to offering “a vision for public safety that I think all of us can agree with.”

    “We want to know that we can get home safely,” he told CNN in June. “We don’t want to worry about being the victim of somebody’s violence, whether it’s from a neighbor or the state itself.”

    Harris, the veteran GOP strategist, said, “Democrats are adopting some of the Republican talking points, to be candid.” Both sides are retreating from more extreme positions, she said, creating an opportunity for lawmakers to return to more nuanced, evidence-based policies. She characterized tough-on-crime attacks as “outliers.”

    This week, El-Sayed’s Republican opponent, Mike Rogers, who has touted his experience as a former FBI agent, dropped his own crime attack ad. “It’s Abdul El-Sayed who would surrender our borders to the drug cartels,” a father whose son died as a result of opioid use says.

    But Democrats are also playing offense this year, with ammunition from the Jeffrey Epstein scandal. Republicans, they charge, are protecting child predators, and Trump’s pardons of drug traffickers, fraudsters, and the rioters of Jan. 6, 2021, have been grist for their own soft-on-crime attacks.

    In Nebraska a political action committee supporting Dan Osborn, an independent, unveiled an ad this week attacking the Republican incumbent, Sen. Pete Ricketts, for pardoning a man who had raped a woman three decades earlier.

    Talarico has accused his Republican opponent, Ken Paxton, Texas’ attorney general, of an “Epstein-style sweetheart deal” that initially would have allowed a child molester to spend just one day in jail. Paxton’s office has said that the deal, which required the man to surrender his law license for five years but did not require him to register as a sex offender, was reached because the victim was unwilling to testify.

    In North Carolina, skirmishes over “pedophile protectors” have proliferated, spurring lengthy examinations of the sex crime rap sheets of pastors, board presidents, and party operatives.

    In July, a Democratic PAC spent more than $2 million on ads about Harvey Lee West Jr., a child sex offender who did time in prison and then ascended the ranks of the state Republican Party, winning influence and committee appointments while Whatley was the chair.

    Whatley’s campaign spokesperson said that the candidate had never hired West for a paid position. But the ads accuse Whatley of “putting politics over safety.”

    FILE — Michael Whatley, Republican’s candidate for a U.S. Senate seat in North Carolina, joins President Donald Trump on stage during a campaign rally at the airport in Gastonia, N.C., Sept. 16, 2026. Across the country, and especially in the North Carolina Senate race, Republicans have charged opponents with being soft on crime, even as President Trump brags over plunging crime rates. (Kenny Holston/The New York Times)KENNY HOLSTON