Category: Wires

  • He was waiting for his son to return from the USS Lincoln. Then Border Patrol arrested him.

    He was waiting for his son to return from the USS Lincoln. Then Border Patrol arrested him.

    When Luis Manuel Aviles was arrested by immigration authorities, his son was entering his ninth month with the Navy on the USS Abraham Lincoln — a vessel that set a U.S. military record for uninterrupted time at sea, stirring concerns about supply shortages and deteriorating mental health among soldiers.

    Luis Manuel Aviles, 48, was arrested after leaving his house to take his car to the mechanic, according to his wife, Argelia Aviles. She said her husband, a repairperson in Key West, Fla., has a permit to work in the United States. Originally from Nicaragua, he has lived in the U.S. for 19 years.

    “He dedicates himself only to work so he can put food on the table at home. He is a good father. He loves his children with all his soul,” said Argelia, 47.

    Aviles’ arrest comes as the Trump administration rolls back immigration protections for military families to pursue its mass deportation agenda, detaining at least dozens of parents and spouses of active-duty U.S. troops.

    At least six family members have been deported and one self-deported, the AP found in the first accounting of such detentions, which the government does not track. One spouse, the wife of a U.S. soldier who spent more than a month in federal immigration detention, was removed from a deportation flight to Brazil after the AP’s reporting.

    One of the military’s most highly advertised immigration benefits is “military parole-in-place,” which allows the spouses, children, and parents of active-duty service members and veterans to obtain legal immigration status from within the country. Not everyone qualifies: those who overstayed visas or who already applied for legal status at the border, for example.

    The Department of Homeland Security said in a statement that Border Patrol agents arrested Luis Aviles on Saturday in Key West and that he will remain in ICE custody while the government seeks to deport him.

    “Having a family member in the military is not a free pass to violate our nation’s laws,” the department said Sunday, adding that the Trump administration “does not pick and choose which laws to enforce.”

    Aviles’ son, Joshua Aviles, said he has been working 12-hour shifts for more than 250 days without a break on the USS Lincoln, which has been deployed in the Middle East. The deployment has raised widespread concerns about the impact on service members who are away from land for long periods and about food shortages, as well as the increasing strain on the ship and its equipment.

    The Pentagon referred all questions to the Navy. The Navy didn’t immediately respond to an emailed request for comment on Sunday afternoon. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth previously called conditions aboard the Lincoln “completely misrepresented.”

    Joshua Aviles wrote in a Facebook post Saturday that he was still on the USS Lincoln “fighting for a country that has given me everything” when he got a call about his father’s detention on Saturday morning.

    “This is heartbreaking for me. I don’t know how I can mentally continue working 12+ hour days knowing that my dad is somewhere, possibly treated like a criminal,” Joshua Aviles wrote.

    Katherine Delgado, 28, Joshua Aviles’ sister, said that Joshua joined the military in part because he thought it would improve his father’s chances of getting citizenship and so that he would “no longer be living in fear of being arrested.”

    She said being apart from Joshua, who she calls her “best friend” and her “ride-or-die,” has been devastating.

    “I spent weeks without knowing where he was,” Delgado said. Once she heard from him, and was told that he wasn’t getting enough food, she said, she has spent hundreds of dollars to send him care packages with food and hygiene products — some of which never arrived.

    Joshua is “supposed to come home soon,” Delgado said, referring to news that the ship her brother is on will soon be brought out of service in the Middle East. “And he’s going to come home without his father.”

    The son’s lengthy deployment has been challenging for Luis Aviles, according to his wife. He told her that he was looking forward to the deployment finally coming to an end. When six months passed and his son didn’t come back, Aviles was distraught, she said.

    “He was excited,” she said. “He wanted to hug his son, as he hadn’t seen him for nine months.”

  • Iran official says support for new sanctions would be an ‘act of war’

    Iran official says support for new sanctions would be an ‘act of war’

    The new head of Iran’s top security body warned Sunday that Tehran will see any country’s support for new U.S. economic measures against the Islamic Republic as an “act of war,” while Iran’s president defended a memorandum of understanding with the United States as the best way out of the stalled conflict.

    Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Monday is expected to announce the new measures after the U.S. vowed to impose an “unprecedented” level of economic warfare and isolation on a country that has lived for decades under sanctions. Also Monday, Pakistan’s army chief is expected to visit Iran as mediators try to revive talks.

    Meanwhile, attacks calmed on the Strait of Hormuz but posturing did not, as a recently created Iranian authority listed dozens of vessels it said will face restrictions on future transits.

    Iran’s security chief sharpens warning to neighbors

    The hard-line leader of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, Mohsen Rezaei, issued his latest warning on X, with the comments quickly shared by Iranian state media.

    It came a day after Rezaei’s most extensive public comments since being named to the post this month.

    “If (Trump) wants to do something, we will retaliate in a seismic manner,” he had told the state broadcaster in an interview that aired late Saturday. He said Iran would target other oil-shipping routes from the Persian Gulf — alternatives to the Strait of Hormuz.

    Rezaei, a former Revolutionary Guard commander and military adviser to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, was part of senior appointments widely seen as hardening Tehran’s political and military stance.

    Iranian president wants to move past ‘neither war nor peace’

    Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian earlier Sunday said the memorandum of understanding signed in mid-June was the best way to move beyond a situation of “neither war nor peace,” adding that Tehran can’t attract investment nearly six months after the war began.

    “There is not a single provision in this agreement that amounts to capitulation,” Pezeshkian said in a speech published by state-run IRNA. “The supreme leader sets the policies, and we will follow that path.”

    The interim deal opened a 60-day period for talks aimed at ending the war and reaching an accord on Iran’s nuclear program. That period ended last week with no signs of compromise or extension.

    No attacks confirmed on the strait, but new restrictions

    There were no confirmed attacks in the Strait of Hormuz over the past 48 hours, a multinational coalition overseen by the U.S. Navy said Sunday, with shipping traffic still at reduced levels. The U.S. military said its blockade of Iranian ports had redirected 70 commercial ships and disabled three as of Sunday.

    Iran’s recently created Persian Gulf Strait Authority, sanctioned by the U.S., published a list of dozens of ships it said had violated arrangements for transiting the strait and would face future restrictions like fines or seizures. The strait had been considered an international waterway before the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran on Feb. 28.

    Iran and Oman, on the strait’s other side, are now discussing management of the waterway, which likely will include ships paying fees.

    Pakistan’s army chief will visit Tehran

    Pakistani Field Marshal Asim Munir will lead a delegation to Tehran on Monday, Iranian state television reported, citing Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Esmail Baghaei.

    Two regional officials said the visit was part of Islamabad’s efforts to de-escalate tensions between the United States and Iran and urge them to return to the negotiating table. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss the matter publicly.

    Iran executes man arrested during January protests

    The Iranian judiciary’s Mizan news agency reported the latest execution connected to nationwide protests early this year, saying Majid Adineh was arrested Jan. 9 in Mohammadshahr, west of Tehran.

    The judiciary said forensic examinations indicated the handgun found on him had been fired on Jan. 8 and 9. Mizan said Adineh had joined the unrest following calls by groups opposed to Iran’s government and alleged that he had received training from groups outside the country. He was convicted under Iran’s law imposing harsher penalties for espionage and cooperation with hostile states.

    Israeli settler arrested in beating of Palestinian amputee

    Police arrested a 16-year-old boy from the Israeli settlement of Avigayil in the beating of a 61-year-old Palestinian, Saeed Muhammad Ibrahim Rabah, outside his home in the occupied West Bank, a year after he lost a leg after being shot by a settler.

    Rabah told the Associated Press that the violence at his home in Khirbet al-Rakeez on Saturday was an effort to make families leave, but “we will remain, no matter what happens.”

    Separately, the West Bank Health Ministry said a 14-year-old in the Askar refugee camp in Nablus was shot dead by Israeli forces, who did not immediately comment. The uncle of Islam Maher Ajouri, Nehad Ajouri, called the shooting indiscriminate.

    And Israel’s military said it detained a suspect in a stabbing attack that wounded a 24-year-old Israeli man in the area of al-Auja in the West Bank. Israel’s emergency services said the man was in moderate condition.

    Airstrike in Gaza kills a 4-year-old child

    Four-year-old Mohammed Taha died after an Israeli airstrike hit a central Gaza house on Sunday and wounded at least five others, according to the Al-Aqsa Martyrs Hospital, which received the casualties.

    Israel’s military later said it struck and killed a Hamas commander in central Gaza. The hospital confirmed that the man named, Ismail Abu Ful, was killed.

    An Israeli strike in southern Gaza wounded at least seven people, including three children, according to health officials at Nasser Hospital. The military did not immediately comment.

    Defense Minister Israel Katz in a statement said he instructed the military to “act immediately and forcefully” to prevent launches of balloons, kites, or drones from Gaza toward nearby Israeli communities.

    Before the Oct. 7, 2023, attack by Hamas-led militants on Israel — when 1,200 people were killed and 251 taken hostage — burning kites and balloons were sent from Gaza into southern Israel, causing fires and other damage.

    Hamas in a statement Sunday accused Israel of “using children’s toys as a pretext” for attacks and further displacement of Gaza residents.

  • Londoners find ‘horrendous’ cracks in their homes after successive heat waves

    Londoners find ‘horrendous’ cracks in their homes after successive heat waves

    Londoners are facing historic levels of subsidence risk after five successive heat waves dried out the clay soil on which much of the city is built.

    Insurance claims tied to subsidence — a phenomenon associated with bouts of hot, dry weather that shrink the soil and destabilize the foundations on which buildings stand — hit a record last quarter, according to data provided by the Association of British Insurers. On average, households claimed £20,000 ($27,200) for the risk, more than in any previous quarter and a 15% jump from the same period in 2025, the ABI said.

    Laura Hughes, head of general insurance at the ABI, says the upward trend is likely to continue. “We expect to see more subsidence cases because of the hot weather,” she said in an interview.

    Londoners have taken to social media to express their dismay. On Reddit, people offered personal accounts telling of “horrendous cracking” in their homes, and “doors sticking” due to subsidence. One said it was “genuinely scary” to discover that their kitchen had moved as the foundations of the home shifted.

    Another Reddit user described the response of a structural engineer they contacted for help. “Before I could finish explaining he laughed and said, ‘You and 20,000 other people in southeast London’,” the person wrote.

    “It’s crazy, what’s happening now,” said Otso Lahtinen, chief executive of Geobear, an engineering firm that’s regularly called in to repair damage caused by subsidence. “It’s the new norm, and it seems it will happen more often in the next 20-30 years.”

    Data provided by Aviva Plc show that the areas of London that are most at risk are some of the U.K. capital’s most sought after, namely the boroughs of Westminster, as well as Kensington and Chelsea. While subsidence has been affecting homes in the British capital for decades, climate change is making it worse. London clay is especially sensitive to fluctuations in moisture, expanding when wet and contracting when dry.

    The threat of subsidence in the U.K. is concentrated in and around London as well as in parts of the southeast. In the four years through 2025, insurance payouts for subsidence damage soared roughly 90% to reach a record £297 million, according to data provided by the ABI.

    The most vulnerable properties are Victorian or Edwardian homes that were built directly onto the upper layers of London clay. By contrast, modern office buildings in the City of London and Canary Wharf have much deeper foundations and are therefore less exposed to such risks.

    Subsidence is part of a long list of heat-related challenges to which the U.K. is now struggling to adapt. Over the past months, extreme heat has forced schools to close, led bus drivers to go on strike, and seen banks relax in-office work requirements to protect staff from unbearably hot commutes. Most of England has been gripped by drought and the country’s hospitals have shown signs of buckling under the strain.

    London Mayor Sadiq Khan has warned that the city will need to turn to private investors to help fund the cost of dealing with the impact of rising temperatures. His office estimates that London now faces an annual bill as high as £36 billion into the 2050s in order to prepare the city for what climate change has in store.

    “The impact that climate change is having is undeniable,” said Hughes of the ABI.

    Subsidence can devalue a property by an average of 20%-25%, according to the Federation of Master Builders. In some cases, homeowners prefer to cover the cost themselves rather than wade through complicated claims processes. The traditional engineering fix for subsidence damage, known as underpinning, can cost anywhere from £20,000 to more than £100,000.

    The development represents a particular risk to insurers, with subsidence claims making up an ever larger chunk of the payouts they need to make to customers.

    The phenomenon poses “a significant challenge for U.K. home insurers,” says Cherry Chan, a partner at Deloitte. The consultancy has warned that UK home insurers risk losses in 2026 due in part to the trend.

    Along with flash floods and wildfires, subsidence is becoming “an increasingly material climate-related risk,” Chan said. It requires that insurers display “careful consideration in long-term exposure and risk management strategies.”

    Extreme weather patterns in 2026 “will not only impact more new claims in this year, but could cause claims deteriorations for unsettled subsidence claims reported in the past,” she added. That includes 2025, which was a so-called surge year for subsidence impacts.

    Fresh estimates from the British Geological Survey indicate that under what is known as the RCP 4.5 emissions scenario — reflecting a trajectory that closely aligns with current climate policies — 1.8 million properties, or about 5% of the U.K. total, are “highly likely or extremely likely” to be susceptible to shrink-swell subsidence by 2070. Under a higher emissions scenario, the figure rises to 4.2 million, or 11%, of British properties. Areas most at risk are densely-populated parts of London, Kent, and southeast of England.

    The development has the potential to lead to “increased insurance premiums, depressed house prices and, in some cases, engineering works to stabilize land or property, replacement of utility pipeworks and unstable transport infrastructure,” according to the BGS.

    Geobear, which tackles subsidence by injecting resin under buildings, says it’s received more homeowner inquiries this summer than ever before. It says insurance clients have confirmed a similar trend, with one telling Geobear it had received 180 claims on a single day, which is significantly more than normal.

    “It’s a pretty severe situation,” said Lahtinen, the CEO. “If you’re looking to trade, sell, or buy property, this is a trend you can’t ignore.”

  • Wildfire started by humans approaches Reno, Nevada, forcing thousands of evacuations

    Wildfire started by humans approaches Reno, Nevada, forcing thousands of evacuations

    The fast-growing Hawk Fire that was spreading toward neighborhoods and consumed some homes in northwest Reno, Nev., was caused by humans and was 0% contained Sunday, authorities said. At least six people were injured.

    Officials said at a news conference Sunday afternoon that 42,000 residents have been ordered evacuated, and the “GO NOW” zone reached the edge of the University of Nevada campus. An additional 45,000 people were in the evacuation warning zone, and encouraged to leave now and be prepared to stay away for several days to clear the roads for first responders.

    The fire had grown to 13,000 acres and was moving in different directions as the winds changed, complicating the fight.

    Authorities confirmed several structures have been destroyed in the fire and were assessing the totals.

    The injured included three civilians and three first responders, officials said.

    The fire has been burning across a rugged section of the Humboldt — Toiyabe National Forest where Peavine Mountain is ringed by homes and businesses on the Nevada side of the California state line, and some of these homes were consumed by the flames.

    Nevada Gov. Joe Lombardo declared a state of emergency in Washoe County and mobilized the Nevada National Guard to support aerial firefighting with two helicopter crews as well as 60 troops to help police safeguard evacuated neighborhoods.

    Nearly 10,000 customers were without power in Washoe County on Sunday. Portions of U.S. Route 395, a major north-south highway, were closed due to the fire. Reno has a population of more than 280,000 residents.

    Washoe County emergency officials opened the Reno-Sparks Convention Center to evacuees, but said they couldn’t bring their pets — small animals and large animals were to be left at two other locations.

    A family raced to grab possessions but lost their home

    Cari Kieffer said a video posted on social media showed her house entirely burned down, with only a scorched basketball hoop still standing.

    “I woke up this morning and just started crying — all my kids, they lost everything,” Kieffer said Sunday. “We lost all our stuff. Everything we own is gone.”

    Kieffer had been watching her son’s football game Saturday when she learned that their home on the outskirts of Reno was in the evacuation zone. An application the family used to track the fire’s progress had been lagging significantly behind its actual location, she said, so they thought firefighters had kept the blaze from their neighborhood.

    Instead, Kieffer, her husband, and their four children ages 3 to 16 raced to save their dogs and whatever possessions they could retrieve. Ash rained down and the wind blew like an oven blast from a wall of flames advancing down the hillside toward their neighborhood, she said.

    “I kept looking outside and the flames just kept getting closer and closer every time I looked,” Kieffer said. “I was like, we got to go like now.”

    Eyes watering and throat burning, Kieffer grabbed a handful of clothes, a Bible, her wedding photos, and her mother’s ashes. In the frenzy, as firefighters yelled at her family to leave immediately, she said she forgot her family’s birth certificates and was unable to salvage her childhood photos.

    The family drove to a friend’s home but had to evacuate again. They learned later Saturday evening that their own home was gone.

    A mountaintop home goes up in flames

    Jaida Hargrove’s grandfather, Rick Arrate, lived alone on Peavine Mountain, which overlooks Reno and Sparks. Firefighters used a bulldozer, cut down trees, and applied fire retardant in their attempt to contain the flames, Hargrove said.

    “They all thought it would be OK,” she said. “And then, in about 30 minutes, the winds just changed and it came way too fast.”

    Arrate and the firefighters were quickly forced off the mountain. “All he was able to take with him was his two golden retrievers,” Hargrove said.

    Arrate spent Saturday night with Hargrove’s parents, his next steps unknown.

    Separate GoFundMe crowdfunding campaigns were set up to assist Arrate and the Kieffer family.

    The fire wasn’t troubling to some at first

    The fire was so small Saturday morning that it wasn’t even a concern, said Tyler Duvall, who went camping over the weekend. By the next day, his house was in the evacuation zone and he couldn’t get back.

    “The wind really blew it up,” Duvall said, adding that he knows of some homes that burned about a mile from his place.

    Strong, gusty winds, low humidity, and dry vegetation are fueling its growth, according to Truckee Meadows Fire & Rescue in Reno.

    “Approximately 400 personnel are currently working on the incident, with resources coming together from local, state, and federal agencies, including ground crews and air resources,” the Truckee Meadows statement said.

    A Nevada transplant gets a rude welcome to Reno

    Retired police officer and firefighter Ted Melden has seen his share of Mother Nature’s fury since moving to Reno with his wife earlier this month from Chapin, S.C. So far, he’s experienced a hailstorm with flash flooding, two different power outages, and, now, the second wildfire incident in the region in two weeks.

    “Just another natural disaster,” Melden said.

    In the two years he lived in South Carolina, Melden said, Hurricane Helene knocked over trees in his yard, while a tornado did some damage in his neighborhood.

    For now, Melden hasn’t been ordered to leave his home, but he has his bags packed just in case.

    “This thing kicked off yesterday, and it just went,” Melden said in describing the wildfire’s fast movement. “I’m hoping they’ll get a good handle on it. You just have to roll with the flow and be ready. Always be prepared and have a full tank of gas.”

    Places just outside the evacuation zone are warned

    The University of Nevada’s Reno campus was just outside the evacuation zone Sunday morning. The university had an enrollment of about 24,000 students in fall 2025. University officials said they have established an emergency response plan should conditions change.

    The Reno-Tahoe International Airport also was outside the evacuation zone. Commercial flights at the airport were unaffected Sunday. The smaller Reno-Stead Airport was closed to general aviation traffic due to the Hawk Fire, but remained open to firefighting aircraft.

    Casinos in Reno offered discounts on hotel rooms to evacuees.

    “If you have been told to evacuate, please don’t wait!” Reno Mayor Hillary Schieve said in a statement posted on social media late Saturday night. “Structures have already been burned in this fire and your life is more important than a building.”

    Authorities also were keeping watch on a county detention facility that was several blocks from the outer edge of the evacuation warning area.

    Earlier this month, three wildfires fueled by hot, dry, and windy conditions north of Reno forced more than 13,000 residents from their homes, according to the Nevada National Guard. The largest of the three, the Bug Fire, burned nearly 150 square miles but now is almost fully contained.

  • Why polling chaos could create big problems for American politics

    Why polling chaos could create big problems for American politics

    WASHINGTON — When Mandela Barnes dropped out of the Wisconsin governor’s race two weeks before the Democratic primary, he declared, “It has become very clear who our nominee is going to be.”

    He meant Francesca Hong, who had a commanding lead in polls — not David Crowley, who ended up narrowly winning the nomination.

    Politicians like Barnes have relied on public and private surveys of voters’ views to guide their decisions for as long as pollsters have sought to measure public opinion. But in this year’s midterm contests, misleading polling has shaped campaign narratives, donor behavior, and news coverage like never before.

    Polls are traditionally used to measure public opinion, not mold it. But this year, several Democratic campaigns have seized on unreliable polls to push the perception that their candidates are surging to try to solidify support, attract donors, and scare off rivals.

    The rise of prediction markets has also created financial incentives for untrustworthy or even fake political polls at a moment when it has become even more expensive and difficult to conduct high-quality public opinion surveys.

    Some Republicans — particularly President Donald Trump — have for years pointed to dubious polling to advance their political goals, but the phenomenon has become far more acute in Democratic primaries this year. In recent weeks, questionable surveys have created confusion and warped perceptions of the results of key primaries for the party.

    In Michigan’s primary for Senate, polls fueled a widespread belief that Rep. Haley Stevens, a moderate Democrat, was a major underdog to Abdul El-Sayed, a progressive. After she voted on primary day, the first question she faced from reporters was about how El-Sayed built such a large polling lead. She ended up losing by just a percentage point.

    In Wisconsin’s primary for governor, polls that consistently showed Hong ahead by double digits created an air of inevitability around her nomination. When she lost, it was viewed as a stunning upset.

    “After seeing the polls, I think everybody would have called me the underdog,” Crowley said. “During this race, I had to be a little bit recklessly optimistic.”

    The polling world has also been rocked by recent revelations of made-up surveys and sketchy practices.

    Three purported polls of the Los Angeles mayor’s race, the Wisconsin primary for governor, and the Nevada governor’s race turned out to be entirely fake — a “short-term social experiment,” according to the website that released them. The fakery’s discovery, by the Los Angeles Times, came only after Mayor Karen Bass of Los Angeles posted approvingly about one of the polls, which showed her ahead.

    Another pollster acknowledged that in a survey of Florida’s primary for governor, it had shifted some respondents’ support from the candidate they had said they backed to another candidate because the initial results “did not align with our read of the race.” (None of the polls above were included in the New York Times’ poll trackers or coverage because they did not meet its basic transparency and professionalism standards.)

    All of this is happening at the dawn of the 2028 presidential primary season, when dozens of candidates are likely to be defined in part by polls that cement impressions and set narratives that may not be tethered to political reality.

    “Every candidate in 2028 will have their own cooked poll factory,” said Lis Smith, a Democratic strategist who was a senior aide on Pete Buttigieg’s 2020 campaign for president. “Polls now are not just a way of measuring the horse race. It’s a way for candidates and their allies to influence the horse race.”

    ‘Double digit down — it cannot be!’

    In Michigan, the last eight public polls of Democratic voters found El-Sayed leading Stevens by double digits.

    In an interview this past week, Stevens said she never believed the race was the blowout that the polls predicted. She won key late endorsements from figures including Gov. Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan, a popular Democrat.

    But the polling unquestionably shaped how the contest was perceived. El-Sayed, whose advisers privately predicted a big victory, was so confident that the weekend before the primary, he was pictured hanging out with social media influencers poolside at a party.

    Stevens sent the Times a memo about her experience dealing with polling that did not reflect the reality of the race.

    “At first the double digit down polls leading up to the election spooked me and potentially had the ability to paralyze,” she wrote. “But then after chewing on them,” she added, “I came to realize, NO WAY! Double digit down — it cannot be!”

    In the interview, she attributed the polling miss to an industry that has largely moved away from expensive “live caller” phone interviews with voters. Instead, most contemporary polling is done online or through texting, mediums likely to include more young people even though the voting electorate skews older. (Live-caller polls can be seriously flawed, too, and it is generally considered best to analyze surveys from a range of pollsters using a mix of methods.)

    “Sometimes we miss the plot with all the tweets and all the polls and all the prediction market stuff,” Stevens said. “In this American democracy, it is still about the people voting, and that remains the purest and most incredible thing, and it likely captures the least amount of our attention.”

    The odds of confusion: 100%

    The biggest new phenomenon influencing how campaigns are viewed is the spread of prediction market data.

    The day before Michigan’s primary, Kalshi gave El-Sayed a 97% chance of winning. The morning of Wisconsin’s primary, Polymarket gave Crowley a 3.6% chance of victory.

    While betting-market odds are often based on the wisdom of crowds and opaque measurements, they are amplified by powerful companies and reported on by legitimate news organizations that in some cases have financial partnerships with the prediction firms. CNN has such an arrangement with Kalshi and regularly shows the prediction market’s betting odds on television. The Wall Street Journal’s parent company has a partnership with Polymarket to display its odds within Journal content.

    Voters and donors now see those numbers, which can be manipulated by all manner of polling and news events, and use them as a proxy for how a candidate is faring.

    Sean Clegg, a senior adviser to Gov. Gavin Newsom of California, who is likely to run for president in 2028, said prediction markets had a growing influence on Democratic strategists, donors, and primary voters.

    “Momentum is everything and poll numbers move prediction markets, which influences strategic voting,” Clegg said. “The progressive subset of the political class is hyper online, and they are pushing these polling narratives like never before.”

    What can anyone do?

    The modern polling industrial complex is a Wild West in which numbers often circulate online with little regard to whether they come from reliable sources.

    “There is no polling cop,” John Anzalone, a prominent Democratic pollster who worked for former President Joe Biden, said of the proliferation of low-quality surveys that flood the market. The news media, he said, is “going to report on every poll that has a university or college on it,” regardless of its methods. “Bad in,” he said, “bad out.”

    Both good and bad polls have real-world consequences, driving decisions about messaging, spending, and even whether to stay in a race. This spring, Gov. Janet Mills of Maine suspended her Senate campaign weeks before the Democratic primary, after low polling numbers starved her of money. The decision left Graham Platner to win the nomination without significant opposition. He later dropped out after a rape allegation that he denied.

    The first 2028 Democratic presidential primary contest is set to be in South Carolina, where the electorate is dominated by older Black voters — the exact demographic that was most difficult to poll in both Michigan and Wisconsin.

    Scott Huffmon, the director of the state’s long-running Winthrop Poll, said that like many other pollsters, he had abandoned live-caller surveys. “We just can’t afford it,” he said.

    Polling problems may be less pronounced in the 2028 race, since presidential contests are easier to poll and produce more high-quality surveys. But the looming questions about how to accurately analyze the field in 2028 have left donors struggling with how to decide which candidates are worth the investment.

    Few methods besides polling will be able to gauge who has popular support before the primaries begin in January 2028. But usually by the time voting begins, the field has been winnowed as candidates run out of money or perceive themselves to be lacking voter support.

    “Given what’s happened over the last two weeks, the inaccurate polling really calls into question whether there’s any empirical value that donors can use to guide their giving,” said Shannon Hunt-Scott, a Democratic megadonor from California. “There’s going to be so many candidates and so many polls of variable quality. People will want to tout them and run around with them. The question is, will they have any real validity? You can’t know.”

    This article originally appeared in the New York Times.

  • The data center backlash bursts into the midterms

    The data center backlash bursts into the midterms

    The fight over data centers is suddenly at the epicenter of the midterm elections.

    One new ad in Texas begins with someone typing into a chatbot, “Why is my electric bill going up?” Another in Ohio blames one of the state’s Republican senators for a proliferation of data centers, calling them “a total scam.” And in top House battlegrounds in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, the Democratic challengers are all running ads against the server warehouses powering the artificial intelligence boom.

    Data centers have become unlikely fault lines in the broader fight over an AI revolution that is remaking the global economy and threatening to disrupt the job market. Now politicians are racing to tap into the backlash — or inoculate themselves — as political strategists in both parties described the issue as an unusually fast-moving force that is already reshaping races for the House, the Senate, and governor’s mansions.

    “It’s very much a bottom up, organic movement,” said Anna Greenberg, a veteran Democratic pollster, who said that while people’s views on data centers were largely tied to how close they live to them, the facilities were also becoming symbols of the excesses of Silicon Valley.

    “Data centers are a physical manifestation,” she said. “Billionaires are building them, and it feeds into all of the Big Tech skepticism that is there. It’s very symbolic of everybody’s issues with AI.”

    There are signs that the emerging data center debate is scrambling the usual partisan divisions.

    So far, Democrats have chiefly been the ones racing to harness voter anger about data centers over rising electricity prices, water use, and mistrust of the tech sector. They aim to punish Republicans for cozying up to industry by approving many of these projects.

    But in recent weeks, a growing number of Republican candidates have scrambled to shield themselves from any fallout. They have voiced skepticism about data centers, despite President Donald Trump’s full-throated cheerleading for the AI industry and fears among party leaders in Washington that blocking construction of the centers could slow the economy and make the United States less competitive against China.

    Some Republicans are now using “data center” as an epithet, and casting themselves as the real opponents of corporate tax breaks and unfettered construction. Last week, Mike Rogers, the Republican nominee for Senate in the key swing state of Michigan, said that he supports a one-year moratorium on data center construction.

    Polls show a revolt brewing against data centers. A Gallup poll conducted in March showed 71% opposed local construction of the centers, and a summer survey from the Annenberg Public Policy Center of the University of Pennsylvania showed that the number of people opposing new data centers in their areas had risen by 12 percentage points since February and March.

    The fallout has been so swift that in some races, including the governor’s contests in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Florida, both Democrats and Republicans are airing television ads about data centers.

    On Wednesday, a remarkable memo from the National Republican Senatorial Committee warned that data center politics was endangering Sen. Jon Husted (R., Ohio). His challenger, Sherrod Brown, the state’s former Democratic senator, has aired millions of dollars worth of ads, calling Husted “the face of data centers in Ohio.”

    “More than any other thing in this race, data centers are the anchor hanging around Husted’s neck,” the memo said.

    The one-page document, which was earlier reported by Axios, amounted to a desperate plea for the well-heeled industry to finance an advertising campaign — lest a Husted loss serve as “a cautionary lesson” for politicians elsewhere.

    Zac McCrary, a Democratic pollster, said that opposing data centers offered Democrats a rare chance to make inroads in rural areas and small towns that are resisting the developments.

    “It absolutely shakes up the snow globe on the partisan coalitions in a part of the world where Republicans have been dominant,” he said. “It’s one of the few issues today that does not immediately code as red or blue, left or right.”

    In Florida, Rep. Byron Donalds, the Republican nominee for governor, spent more than $2 million on one ad in his primary, vowing to “protect” the state from data centers that “jack up utility rates.” In the ad, he tried to cast that position as standing with Trump, whose administration sought to blunt some of the opposition earlier this year by proposing a “ratepayer protection pledge,” in which data centers promise not to drive up electricity costs.

    His Democratic opponent in the fall, David Jolly, said, “We don’t want crime or data centers in our neighborhoods” in one of his first ads of the general election.

    In a sign of how top-of-mind data centers have become, Donalds brought up the topic unprompted at an event this month in Naples, Fla. “Listen, I know people have concerns,” he said. “I’ve seen the polling. But leadership isn’t just looking at polling.”

    He then tried to thread the needle between selling the importance of artificial intelligence for the United States’ competitive future and addressing boiling anger at local data centers. “I don’t want it near your home, just like I don’t want it near my home,” Donalds said.

    Jolly’s position is less complicated. In an interview Thursday, he said Florida should impose a moratorium on data center construction until the full impacts could be studied.

    The fierceness of the mounting opposition has startled some in the tech sector.

    “This is a powder keg,” warned Chamath Palihapitiya, a public-facing venture-capital investor, in a post on the social platform X last week, responding to the dire warning in the NRSC memo. He wrote that the AI industry had “failed miserably in doing the basics” of selling itself.

    Political strategists and pollsters in both parties said that voters have linked the facilities to concerns over higher electricity prices, water use, the fate of farmlands, and general fears about the advent of artificial intelligence and Big Tech.

    “They didn’t do a good enough job explaining anything,” Ryan James Girdusky, a Republican political strategist and podcaster, said of the industry.

    In Texas, the Democratic candidate for Senate, James Talarico, and for governor, Gina Hinojosa, have held recent events about data centers, accusing their Republican rivals of pocketing data center donations while backing expansions.

    “Texans are mad,” Hinojosa said in an interview. “It is hard to convey what feels like an invasion by data centers with no rules, no laws to protect Texas. They’re popping up everywhere.”

    It was her advertisement that featured a chatbot being asked about the cause of rising electricity prices. The answer it provides? Blaming Republican Gov. Greg Abbott and data centers.

    Even before that ad, Abbott had been shifting his stance on data centers. Less than a year ago, Abbott bragged that Google’s $40 billion investment made Texas “the epicenter of AI development,” bringing both construction jobs and tax revenues.

    But this summer he announced new standards for data centers on water use and electricity and called to end some tax incentives. This month he directed the state’s utility commission to audit all data centers seeking permits before they could move forward.

    “Data center growth cannot come at the expense of Texans’ livelihoods,” said Catherine Frazier, a spokesperson for Abbott.

    Abbott is hardly the only politician pivoting.

    Gov. Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania, a potential Democratic candidate for president in 2028, had been a booster of AI investments. In June 2025, Shapiro said he was “proud” of Amazon’s $20 billion data center investment, bragging it would be the largest private sector investment in the state’s history.

    On Tuesday, Shapiro signed an executive order imposing what he called the “strictest guardrails in the nation” to stop “predatory developers.”

    “I’ve heard loud and clear from the people of Pennsylvania,” said Shapiro, who is up for reelection this year.

    Now Shapiro has started airing a television ad attacking his Republican challenger, Stacy Garrity, as the “number one fan of data centers.” Garrity has her own ad hitting Shapiro for “data centers in our backyards,” but her campaign can afford only a small fraction of the airtime.

    Another Republican candidate for governor running on data center politics is Rep. Tom Tiffany of Wisconsin, who has attacked his Democratic rival as “Data Center David Crowley.” Crowley narrowly won the nomination over a democratic socialist, Francesca Hong, who had demanded a data center moratorium.

    Neither Crowley nor Tiffany has called for a moratorium.

    Crowley has preferred to let local communities decide, with a number of guardrails and restrictions. Tiffany, who called data centers “exciting new technology” just a few months ago, is now calling for a repeal of tax incentives.

    In Michigan, William Lawrence, a progressive activist, rode an anti-data center message to win the Democratic nomination for a key Michigan House seat this month and then immediately made a general election ad targeting Rep. Tom Barrett, the Republican incumbent, on the issue.

    Barrett campaigned Tuesday with House Speaker Mike Johnson in Michigan, who warned that, while “community concerns” needed to be accounted for, “a broad moratorium against data centers is kind of a dangerous prospect right now.”

    The next day Barrett began airing a new data center ad of his own, in which he claimed that “I stood up to my own party and voted against giving your tax dollars to data centers.”

    In an interview, Lawrence, who supports a moratorium, called the ad “outrageous” and said voters would not be satisfied with half measures. Data center opposition, he said, was “number one in terms of intensity” in the district.

    “It’s bringing together three-time Trump voters, anti-vaxxers, environmentalists, independents, nonvoters, people who are in our cities, people who are in the rural areas,” Lawrence said. “And it’s bringing together all these people because none of us trust Big Tech to do right by our communities.”

    This article originally appeared in the New York Times.

  • After decades of free spending, Washington is facing some unpalatable choices

    After decades of free spending, Washington is facing some unpalatable choices

    Year after year, the federal government has spent more than it collected in taxes. Each annual shortfall increased the national debt, slowly at first and then by leaps, defying warnings of an inevitable reckoning.

    Now, the reckoning may be at hand.

    This week’s bond market sell-off brought government borrowing costs to their highest level in almost two decades and prompted an extraordinary Treasury Department intervention.

    On Friday, the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond topped 5.27%, up slightly from one day earlier, a sign that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s plan to calm markets is not working. After decades of free spending, Washington may soon be compelled to make some long-deferred, and politically unpalatable, choices that will leave few Americans unscathed.

    “This is what the bond market is trying to signal: We’re going to have to make choices that hurt growth,” said Adam Abbas, who manages $4 billion in bonds for the Oakmark Funds. “We have two levers to do that: raise taxes or cut spending. Either option is not politically popular, and it will never be popular, but at some point we have to address the problem.”

    The problem is a $40 trillion national debt, along with crisis-level annual budget deficits that require significant new borrowing.

    When the Treasury Department woos investors for its bonds, it competes with other governments and corporations — notably the hyperscalers building the nation’s artificial intelligence infrastructure. All that competition for capital means investors can demand higher returns, or yields, from those that want their money.

    Fiscal watchdogs have warned for decades that rising U.S. debt will eventually trigger a crisis. As borrowing costs rise, debt becomes more expensive in what can become a vicious cycle, said Marc Goldwein, senior policy director for the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.

    “What I worry about is we’re on the verge of sort of a real debt spiral, which happens when your interest [bill] is growing faster than your economy,” Goldwein said.

    Fast-rising bond yields or interest rates often reverberate through the financial system in unexpected ways, exposing costly vulnerabilities. In 2023, for example, Silicon Valley Bank failed after rising bond yields blew a hole in its balance sheet.

    Today, potential weak spots in the financial system include some of the nation’s largest hedge funds, where borrowed money used for investments, or leverage, is “near all-time highs,” according to the minutes of the Fed’s July 28-29 meeting. Likewise, traditionally staid life insurers are holding riskier assets that would be difficult to unload quickly if they needed to raise cash during a crisis.

    Financial setbacks also could occur overseas in places like France or Japan, said Rebecca Patterson, former chief investment strategist for Bridgewater Associates and now a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations.

    “When we’re thinking about what could cause a crisis in the U.S., don’t just think about what’s happening in the U.S. Think about other markets that could be vulnerable,” she said.

    Today’s fiscal pressures began building a quarter century ago after former President Bill Clinton and a Republican-controlled Congress balanced the budget four years in a row. The federal government actually began paying off its debt.

    That prompted Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan to give a speech in 2001 warning that eliminating the debt, and thus Treasury securities themselves, could disrupt financial markets. Even so, he expected it to happen.

    “Current forecasts suggest that under a reasonably wide variety of possible tax and spending policies, the resulting surpluses will allow the Treasury debt held by the public to be paid off,” Greenspan said.

    Instead, a series of policy choices and unforeseen crises swamped the nation’s fiscal progress beneath a tide of red ink.

    The problem has grown especially acute over the past decade. Between 1789 and 2016, the U.S. government borrowed a bit more than $19 trillion. Over the past 10 years, President Donald Trump and former president Joe Biden added an additional $20 trillion, doubling the national debt, and making debt service payments one of taxpayers’ largest annual burdens.

    The U.S. now spends more than $1 trillion each year paying interest on the national credit card, more than it devotes to Medicare, according to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office. As recently as 2010, the interest bill was less than one-fifth that amount.

    The rising U.S. debt load is part of a broader phenomenon. Global debt of all types hit a record $353 trillion earlier this year, more than three times the size of global output.

    Unlike the risky mortgage borrowing that triggered the 2008 financial crisis, recent years have featured governments as the biggest borrowers. Here and abroad, governments borrowed to repair their economies after the 2008 meltdown and borrowed again to get through the 2020 pandemic. Poorer nations in Africa and Asia have gone deeper into debt to finance higher energy and food bills following the wars in Ukraine and Iran.

    “The debt has transferred to governments. I don’t think this is only a U.S. story, by any means,” said Patterson.

    This week’s bond market drama returned long-term yields to the level they occupied for most of the 1990s. But there are important differences between that period and today. Debt was lower and growth was faster.

    In 1997, for example, when the yield on the 30-year bond was around 6%, the economy still managed to post growth that topped out at 6.8%, more than four times faster than the most recent quarter. Relative to the size of the economy, the national debt that year was less than half as big as today.

    “Demographics. Labor force growth is down because of aging, the recent departure of older workers, and diminished immigration. And Trump keeps throwing in supply-side shocks — tariffs, Iran wars. The supply-side is completely different now,” Douglas Holtz-Eakin, president of the conservative American Action Forum and a former director of the CBO, said via email.

    The only surefire way to restore order to bond markets would be credible action to reduce the nation’s yawning budget deficit, which the CBO estimates will hit a record $2.1 trillion this year.

    In a Thursday interview with CNBC, Bessent promised the Trump administration would soon announce “an increased” focus on the government’s finances, including an examination of potential changes on “both the revenue and the cost side.”

    But there is ample reason for skepticism. The administration’s initial attempt at overhauling government spending produced Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency, which upended large swaths of the civil service while failing to back up exaggerated claims of savings.

    Despite that experience, Bessent said he expected “several hundred billion dollars” in savings from an anti-fraud task force led by Vice President JD Vance.

    The administration’s economic assumptions are also more optimistic than those of outside forecasters. Before the president’s signature tax legislation passed last year, the White House Council of Economic Advisers projected that this year’s deficit would be about $1.7 trillion.

    The CEA also assumes that the U.S. economy will grow at an average annual rate of 2.8%, notably faster than the CBO’s 2% forecast.

    Independent experts say some combination of higher taxes and cuts in popular entitlements such as Social Security and Medicare are unavoidable. But less than three months before November’s congressional elections, the administration’s promised fiscal consolidation “seems unlikely to be realized,” economists at Barclays told clients this week.

    Indeed, on Capitol Hill the debt issue so far has spurred little more than dutiful public statements.

    “Our reckless spending problem in Washington is immoral — it unfairly leaves our children and grandchildren to foot the bill — but it also is making our economic stability extremely fragile,” Sen. John Curtis (R., Utah) wrote Thursday on X. “The more we add to our debt, the greater the threat of disaster in the event of an economic shock.”

    Curtis is lead sponsor of a bipartisan bill to create a commission to propose ways to shrink the national debt to less than 100% of GDP by 2039. He also voted last year for the president’s tax legislation, which the CBO estimates will add $4.7 trillion to deficits over the next decade.

    Curtis’s office did not immediately respond to messages on Friday.

    Other lawmakers have proposed creating a commission to rescue Social Security, which is expected to run short of money to pay full benefits in 2032. If that happens, benefits are legally mandated to be slashed by 22%.

    Few expect early action. And Sen. Bill Cassidy (R., La.), a lead sponsor of one of the commission bills, said no one should expect such a commission to tackle problems beyond Social Security.

    “It’s easy to say, ‘fix everything at once,’ but we know that is not possible,” Cassidy said in an email. “Once we do this, it will prove that other areas of the debt can be addressed, but we should crawl before we walk.”

    As Congress tries to crawl and the Social Security trust fund’s depletion approaches, the bond market’s anxiety will grow, said Jason Fichtner, executive director of the LIMRA Retirement Income Institute and a former chief economist of the Social Security Administration.

    “I don’t see that meaning that the government defaults or goes bankrupt,” he said. “But I do think it means higher costs of living for everybody.”

  • U.S.-Canada breakdown shows limits of Trump’s aggressive trade strategy

    U.S.-Canada breakdown shows limits of Trump’s aggressive trade strategy

    The shocking collapse of U.S.-Canada trade talks is the latest sign that President Donald Trump’s bulldozer approach to remaking the nation’s trade relationships may be reaching its limits.

    The president tried in recent days to use an untested legal power to force Canada to swallow trade concessions. Instead, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney quit the negotiations rather than accept a lengthening list of U.S. demands.

    As a result, 50% U.S. tariffs took effect early Saturday on an array of Canadian products, including hockey sticks and Crown Royal whisky.

    As Carney prepared to walk away — a rare example of a foreign leader telling the president “enough” — Trump was retreating on another trade front. On Friday, after insisting for more than a year that tariffs do not affect consumer prices, he lifted tariffs on beef imports, saying the move would lead to lower grocery prices.

    The two developments, coupled with legal challenges to Trump’s tariffs, leave the president’s signature economic policy in a state of flux.

    “It’s a big setback for Trump’s trade policy. We’re at a juncture where other countries may be very closely watching how this plays out as they also are becoming increasingly frustrated with the demands the U.S. is placing on them in these largely one-sided trade agreements,” said Wendy Cutler, a former U.S. trade negotiator who is now senior vice president at the Asia Society Policy Institute.

    Indeed, the United States has negotiated 10 reciprocal trade agreements over the past year with nations such as Malaysia, Cambodia, and Argentina, along with other trade frameworks with the European Union, the United Kingdom, and Japan.

    Hearing of the concessions that the U.S. offered Canada, including reductions in tariffs on industrial metals, some trading partners may demand revisions to their deals, Cutler said.

    Administration officials have approached each bargaining round convinced of two things: Decades of U.S. trade policy hollowed out the nation’s manufacturing communities. And a muscular new approach, leveraging the appeal of the $32 trillion U.S. economy, can force other nations to give way and encourage the reindustrialization of the U.S.

    For the administration, trade negotiations are not a contest of equals. The talks start from the premise that U.S. negotiating partners must make concessions, opening their markets and in some cases promising to invest in the United States, simply to win a reprieve from unilateral U.S. trade barriers.

    Both Jamieson Greer, the president’s chief trade negotiator, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent have publicly complained that Canada and China are the only nations that retaliated for the tariffs that Trump imposed last year.

    The administration sees its actions as restoring fairness to an imbalanced global trade system, making such retaliation unjustified. But China’s tough stance last year, which included a temporary interruption of essential rare earth minerals, paid off. The president lowered his triple-digit tax on imports from China and reached a trade truce in an October meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping, who is due in Washington on Sept. 24 for more talks.

    The Canada negotiations were aimed at averting the new 50% tariffs, which Trump had threatened in July unless Carney dropped retaliatory measures imposed in response to earlier U.S. tariffs.

    On Tuesday, Trump delayed his initial deadline, posting on Truth Social that the two sides had reached “a DEAL” and needed three days to finalize the documents.

    The subsequent breakdown spotlighted tensions in the president’s strategy, including questions over the durability of any deal reached with the U.S. administration.

    After all, the U.S. and Canada, along with Mexico, already have a trade deal: the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) of 2020, which Trump hailed at the time as “the largest, fairest, most balanced, and modern trade agreement ever achieved.”

    But this year, the president threatened to quit the deal and demanded sweeping changes to it, aimed at promoting more U.S. manufacturing. He also imposed tariffs on Canadian goods starting last year, a breach of the accord.

    On Saturday, speaking in Ottawa, Carney alluded to the difficulty of negotiating with a mercurial president.

    “We’ve recognized from the start that America has changed,” Carney said. “We recognize that sometimes, its signature is written in pencil.”

    Negotiating with the U.S. is also complicated by divisions within the administration. All top officials share Trump’s goal of spurring domestic manufacturing. But as Greer haggled with the Canadians this week, a split emerged over the U.S. trade representative’s willingness to reduce an existing 50% tariff on aluminum derivatives to 25% in return for Canadian concessions.

    At a White House meeting, White House trade adviser Peter Navarro and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, whose department administers the national security tariffs, clashed with Greer, representing industry views that the higher aluminum tariffs were needed to encourage domestic manufacturing.

    “Navarro and Lutnick were both yelling at Greer saying: ‘What are you doing? This is stupid. You know, we’re not giving these things away,’” said one industry representative, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe the confidential talks.

    Late in the talks, the U.S. sought to exclude from tariff reductions heavy trucks produced in Ontario, such as the Ford F-350 and F-450, and the GM Silverado. Over time, that would have made it “more uneconomic” for the automakers to keep making the vehicles in Canada, Carney said. The administration also sought to restrict Canada’s right to sign trade deals with other countries, a key part of Carney’s strategy to reduce dependence on its increasingly unreliable southern neighbor.

    Trump’s undiplomatic style — including saying that Canada should surrender its sovereignty to become the 51st U.S. state — made it harder politically for the Canadian leader to accept a deal. Public opinion in Canada has turned fiercely anti-American.

    “A 160-year trading relationship has found its red line,” said Flavio Volpe, president of the Automotive Parts Manufacturers’ Association in Toronto. “Demanding that your closest trading partner mirror your trade policy with third countries is akin to asking them to surrender agency over foreign policy. This episode shows that doesn’t work, no matter the disproportionate market leverage of the USA.”

    Trump also has a general disregard for the $3.4 trillion worth of merchandise that the U.S. imports annually. Speaking in June about his North American neighbors, the president told reporters in the Oval Office: “We don’t need anything that Canada has, we don’t need anything that Mexico has, but they need everything that we have. … We don’t need their cars, we don’t need their lumber, we don’t need their energy, we don’t need anything that they have.”

    In fact, U.S. farmers rely on Canadian sources for nearly 80% of the potash fertilizer they use each year, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. Northern border states, including New York, Michigan, Vermont, Minnesota, and Maine, run on electricity produced by Canadian hydropower. And Midwestern refineries are optimized to process heavy sour crude oil from Canada, helping keep gas prices lower than they otherwise would be, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.

    Total U.S.-Canada trade each year exceeds $700 billion.

    The talks’ failure leaves businesses on both sides of the border burdened by a sudden jump in costs. Small businesses in the U.S. will face an especially sharp cash crunch, as they must pay tariffs before their customers pay them 30 or 60 days later, said Jason Miller, a professor of supply chain management at Michigan State University.

    “I expect a significant drop in a lot of these different import categories because importers simply can’t afford to bring them in. That may mean certain products not on the store shelves,” said Miller.

    In other cases, companies will struggle to find a domestic alternative to Canadian goods, especially for intermediate products such as packaging materials. So they will continue importing and pass along some of the 50% cost shock to their customers.

    On Saturday, Carney said Canada will retaliate on Sept. 8 for the new tariffs with its own trade measures. By delaying his response, he is leaving time for cooler heads to prevail, analysts said.

    “Then the parties come back to the table. North America is too integrated for it to unravel on the basis of a deal that was put together over 14 days,” said Dan Ujczo, a trade lawyer in Columbus, Ohio.

    If a deal had been reached this weekend, it would have paved the way for the official start of negotiations between the two nations over the proposed USMCA changes.

    Instead, the administration now must manage a cycle of retaliation and counterretaliation while perhaps facing a new courtroom fight over the legality of Trump’s 50% tariffs, which were imposed under a never-before-used 1930 trade law.

    Meanwhile, Trump’s 50% tariffs on goods ranging from hockey sticks to alcohol are expected to raise prices for American consumers less than three months before the Nov. 3 midterm elections, which have the potential to give Democrats control of Congress.

    Those elections, polls show, are expected to turn on voters’ frustration with the rising cost of living.

  • Jeffries and Kushner meet privately as midterm attacks fly

    Jeffries and Kushner meet privately as midterm attacks fly

    Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D., N.Y.), the House minority leader, met privately in recent weeks with Jared Kushner, President Donald Trump’s son-in-law and top outside adviser, and discussed potential areas of common ground, according to five people with knowledge of the meeting.

    The rare engagement was held in a private space in New York City, offered up by a mutual friend of the two men, according to two people with knowledge of the meeting and a third who was briefed on it. They and others were granted anonymity to discuss a meeting about which they were not authorized to speak publicly.

    Through aides, neither man would comment on the session, which was described by one person with knowledge of it as a broad conversation on a range of topics. Still, its timing underscored that those around Trump were well aware of the likelihood of a Democratic-led House, and trying to foster as much of a working relationship as possible before any change. Jeffries is in line to be the speaker, were Democrats to win the majority.

    Democrats and the president have been savaging each other on the campaign trail with increasing fury as the midterm elections approach, and as Republicans are fighting to retain their thin House and Senate majorities.

    Trump has called Jeffries a “thug,” and at a May campaign event referred to him as a “low IQ” person who had inspired him to deride Democrats as the “Dumocrats.” Jeffries routinely suggests that Trump is not only extreme but corrupt, vowing that Democrats would “hold the crooks accountable” if they won control.

    The private get-together was described by one of the people as a catch-up for Kushner and Jeffries. The two men have stayed in touch since they worked together on a criminal justice bill midway through Trump’s first term.

    During the recent meeting, the pair discussed housing, immigration, and the high cost of living as potential areas of common ground. Kushner suggested that Jeffries should meet with the White House chief of staff, Susie Wiles, two people with knowledge of the meeting said.

    The likelihood of any compromises between the White House and Democrats on those issues seems remote.

    Trump this year refused to sign a bipartisan housing bill in part because he said it was “Warren centric,” referring to Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, its top Democratic champion. And he has repeatedly expressed openness to a deal with Democrats on immigration, only to back away from any such agreement. He successfully lobbied Republicans to abandon a bipartisan border-security bill in 2024.

    White House officials and an aide to Kushner did not respond to messages seeking comment.

    In a statement, Jeffries did not acknowledge the meeting, but suggested that the only way Democrats would cut deals with the administration would be if Republicans were willing to come their way on cost-of-living issues, his party’s top priority.

    “Throughout this Congress, Republicans have adopted a my-way-or-the-highway approach to governing that has failed the American people,” he said.

    He added: “In every conversation that we have with the Trump administration, we will continue to make it explicitly clear that the affordability crisis is not a hoax, and nothing short of transformational policy change is acceptable. We are fighting for an affordable America. The question is whether Republicans will join us.”

    Kushner, who worked as a senior West Wing adviser in the president’s first term, is no longer formally part of Trump’s government. He has been deeply involved in the president’s efforts to resolve the war with Iran that Trump began, to enforce a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip, and to bring an end to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. He and Jeffries also met last year, according to two people with knowledge of that conversation.

    The meeting came as nearly all polls revealed Republicans to be at a disadvantage in the midterms, and showed how members of Trump’s inner circle were digesting what a Democratic majority next year could look like.

    Should that happen, Jeffries would be under intense pressure from progressives to use his power as a check on Trump, including through aggressive oversight.

    Kushner is frequently consulted by a number of Trump’s advisers, and he has told people that if anything bipartisan is to get done with Congress, Jeffries is the most serious person among Democratic leaders. Wiles, he has said, is the most serious inside the West Wing.

    But with Republicans in control of both chambers, Trump has mostly steered around Congress in his second term, trampling its powers and prerogatives. He has faced little pushback from Republican leaders.

    Should Democrats win the House, Jeffries would have to balance the need to keep the government funded with Democratic calls to defy Trump at every turn, and possible pleas to impeach him for a third time.

    Jeffries and Trump have danced around questions about what their relationship could look like next year should Democrats take control.

    “I think he’s a nice guy,” Trump told Punchbowl News in a recent interview, when asked about Jeffries. “I’d probably get along with him very well.”

    Trump pointed to a meeting with Jeffries in the Oval Office last fall — the only one they have had in his second term — and described it as a positive one.

    In fact, during that meeting, which was billed as a bid to avert a government shutdown, the president positioned hats with a “Trump 2028” logo directly in front of Jeffries and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer of New York, trolling the Democrats with the suggestion that he would run for a third term in violation of the Constitution.

    Afterward, Trump posted an AI-generated meme of a mustachioed Jeffries wearing a sombrero, drawing an angry response from the House minority leader, who called the image racist and dared Trump to insult him next time “to my face.”

    Soon after the meeting, the government shutdown began.

    This year, Jeffries has remained noncommittal about any plans to pursue a third impeachment of the president, and has not discussed publicly what oversight could look like if his party were to win the majority.

    “We’ve not ruled anything in and not ruled anything out in terms of accountability,” he told the New York Times in an interview last month, noting that his focus would be on forcing out major Trump officials.

    “We’ve got to make sure we continue to get rid of toxic Trump Cabinet secretaries,” he said. “Pete Hegseth, in my view, should be next on the list.”

    This article originally appeared in the New York Times.

  • How ‘The Rest Is History’ podcast conquered the world

    How ‘The Rest Is History’ podcast conquered the world

    HAMPTON COURT PALACE, England — In a field on the outskirts of London, thousands of people settled onto picnic rugs and camping chairs, slathering on sunscreen for the unusually hot English summer. A few people had uncorked bottles of sparkling wine, though it was not quite 10 a.m. One woman knitted while a couple in Panama hats tiptoed to a spot with a prime view of the stage.

    Then a familiar song began playing, and a ripple of excitement ran through the crowd. The rock stars of the event had arrived: two middle-aged British historians.

    The Rest Is History is the most popular history podcast in the United States, Britain, and Australia, with some 30 million downloads and streams a month. This was its first live festival — a sort of mini-Lollapalooza, if Lollapalooza were a sedate, two-day event on the grounds of an English palace.

    The show’s almost 800 episodes span millenniums and continents, covering the fall of the Aztecs, the French Revolution, the assassination of Abraham Lincoln, and history’s greatest monkeys, among other things. Its fans include a current prime minister, Mark Carney of Canada, and a former one, Julia Gillard of Australia; actors Matthew McConaughey and Tom Hanks; and musician Nick Cave.

    In February, a hearing at England’s Supreme Court was interrupted when a judge’s phone played the introduction to an episode on Jimmy Carter. “The Rest Is History,” he acknowledged sheepishly. “It was switched to silent. Do carry on.”

    How did it become such a juggernaut? And what does it say about our tumultuous, accelerated present, a time of news fatigue and thrumming anxiety over the future, that so many of us are drawn to a show about the past? There is reassurance, of course, in reminding ourselves that humans have survived difficult times before. There is the pure escapism of immersing yourself in, say, six riveting episodes about Mary, Queen of Scots, as I did when I first latched on to the podcast. And then there are the podcast’s hosts, Tom Holland, 58, and Dominic Sandbrook, 51, who give the show a charm all of its own.

    Almost 5,000 people bought tickets to the festival, which was held at Hampton Court Palace, Henry VIII’s favorite retreat. Fans from Argentina, New Zealand, Europe, and the United States filed through courtyards, whose stone floors had been polished smooth by centuries of use, into acres of picturesque gardens for two days of an epic history chat.

    ‘An enormous cuckoo’

    Like several other disruptive cultural forces, The Rest Is History was born in the pandemic. Holland was, at the time, “kind of contemptuous and oblivious as to what podcasts were,” he said recently at his home in the south London neighborhood of Brixton. During a family holiday after England’s first lockdown, his brother James, who is also a historian, told him about a World War II podcast he was recording for a British company called Goalhanger.

    Holland, who had written several popular classical history books and made history documentaries with the BBC, was intrigued. He met with Tony Pastor and Jack Davenport, two former sports producers who created Goalhanger with former England soccer player Gary Lineker. The idea for a more general history podcast was born.

    “Who would you enjoy talking to, week in, week out?” he recalls being asked. It was an easy question. “Dominic was the most entertaining historian that I knew,” Holland said. They had met more than a decade before at a writers’ charity quiz.

    Sandbrook agreed to co-host, in part because of Holland’s exuberant, if hyperbolic, salesmanship. “I can hear him saying it now, he said: ‘It will be literally no work. It will be no work whatsoever,’” Sandbrook said over coffee at a tiny Gloucestershire cafe near his home. The idea was that “we’d choose random things that we knew a lot about, and just witter about them for half an hour.”

    That idea has, let’s say, evolved. They now produce three episodes a week, two of which are about an hour long, and a 30-minute bonus episode for paying subscribers. A ton of research goes into each. Their biggest audience is in the United States, which accounts for 34% of plays, according to Goalhanger, while 33% comes from Britain and Ireland, followed by Australia, Canada, and New Zealand. Listenership is surprisingly young, with 61% under 44, and it is 78% male.

    Holland described the podcast as an “enormous cuckoo that slowly elbowed out everything else.” He is currently very behind, he told me ruefully, on a book he is writing about the Beatles and “the new Reformation of the 1960s” that was due at Christmas.

    Sandbrook said his working life was “unrecognizable, compared to what it was before.”

    “I do spend a ridiculous amount of time now reading history books,” he added. “But there are worse things to do.”

    The spirit of a Viking and a cringing monk

    Holland arrived onstage at Hampton Court in a Henry VIII-style velveteen hat. Tall and energetic with a crop of white hair, he is a natural impresario who later took great pleasure in overseeing a bout of medieval combat, one of the diversions that punctuated the live talks with historians. Sandbrook is a more grounded figure, with twinkling eyes and a warm handshake. He is, by his own account, less inclined to cosplay as a historical character.

    The rapport between the two men is central to the podcast’s appeal. They have much in common. Both were privately educated, attended top universities (Holland at Cambridge and Sandbrook at Oxford), and radiate warmth and humor. Their expertise, however, is in different historic periods — “He’s ancient and I’m modern, basically,” Sandbrook said — and they play on their differences.

    There is a lot of banter. In an episode on the Battle of Stamford Bridge in 1066, Holland says that he did not quote from his book Millenium because there were so many epic contemporary accounts. “This speaks to your fundamental lack of self-confidence, I think, Tom,” says Sandbrook, who readily quoted from his own book.

    Holland mournfully agrees: “You have the spirit of a Viking. I have the spirit of a cringing monk.”

    “By the way, please clip that and use that for social media,” Sandbrook jokes, and the two dissolve into laughter.

    Holland tends to be more vocally empathetic toward historical figures, while Sandbrook is more merciless. In an episode on the First World War, Sandbrook quotes from Robert Graves’s memoir, Goodbye to All That, describing an unfortunate British sergeant who fired a bomb that bounced back into his face.

    “Noooo, that’s the kind of thing I’d do!” interjects Holland.

    Part of the delight of the podcast is in their mischievous, but fundamentally good-natured observations about life — its absurdities, contradictions, and continuities. For Holland, the show is popular because it reveals the strange ways of our predecessors while illuminating the common threads that bind us.

    “Without having consciously set out to do this,” he said, “I think it is a celebration of the inherent fascination of the past, as the best way to understand how infinite the ways are of being human.”

    Sandbrook framed it in slightly different terms. “I think there is an inexhaustible human appetite for stories,” he said.

    Both men also pointed to something else — a deliberate lack of moralizing, and, in a post-woke world, a curiosity about the past rather than a rush to judgment. “History is not a civics lesson,” Sandbrook said somewhat sternly, after I asked about what we could learn from the past. “History is the record of human behavior, often which is very bad. And the one thing that doesn’t change, I would say, is human nature.”

    ‘Outside of the swirl of chaos’

    In April, as Britain was edging toward its seventh prime minister in 10 years, The Rest Is History did a series on Britain in the 1970s. Almost 500 people were killed in Northern Ireland in 1972. In 1974, the government briefly introduced a three-day working week to cope with an energy crisis. The following year, inflation spiked to 25%.

    Sandbrook noticed listeners’ fascination, and, in some cases, relief, in their comments. “They were saying, ‘I thought things were awful now, but then I look back and I think, well, it’s not that bad,’” he said.

    Asked if we were living through a particularly turbulent era, both men referred to the pace of technological change as unprecedented, comparing it to the advent of the printing press in the 15th century. “Clearly what is happening now,” Holland said, “first with the internet, social media, and now with AI, is going to be convulsively transformative in a way that we cannot yet get a handle on.”

    “I think that’s why history is so valuable,” he added, “because it does kind of provide a rain check. It does enable you to get outside of the swirl of chaos.”

    Wandering the gardens of Hampton Court — where actors in period dress paraded under parasols — could feel a little like stepping back in time, albeit with stalls serving overpriced iced coffees and plant burgers. I wondered to what extent the show offered some listeners a similar retreat from the uncertain 21st century into stories where the endings, however good or bad, are no longer in doubt.

    Yet the past is also compelling as a means of understanding a confounding present. Onstage the first morning of the festival, Holland interviewed professor Ali Ansari, a historian specializing in Iran, in a conversation that jumped between ancient Persia and this year’s U.S.-Israeli war against Iran.

    In the afternoon, Sandbrook spoke to Paul Rouse, an Irish historian, who talked about the common market between Ireland and Britain in the 1800s, including up to 12 sailings a day from Dublin carrying cattle to England, and later spoke of the damage wrought by Brexit. On Sunday, historian Katja Hoyer discussed her new book on Weimar and the rise of Hitler.

    “History frames so much that is significant about our present politics,” said Christoph Pike, 31, a fan of the podcast who had flown in from Toronto with his wife, Claire Davis. At the same time, he noted, Holland and Sandbrook “don’t take themselves too seriously.”

    “They’re playful, they’re engaged, they both have a great sense of humor,” Pike said.

    As the sun set on Saturday, Holland and Sandbrook applied their considerable intellects to questions from audience members.

    “Top three mustaches of all time?” asked one.

    “Great question!” Holland said. “We do love facial hair.”

    Another historical debate had begun.

    This article originally appeared in the New York Times.