As Bryce Harper came to the plate, with two out in the eighth inning Thursday night and the Phillies trailing by four runs, the Braves prepared their final insult.
They brought in Chris Sale.
Sale is Harper’s Kryptonite and has struck him out in 14 of 25 at-bats through the years. This time, the Braves ace and future Hall of Famer slung four hellacious sliders. Harper flailed at three, the last of which wound up in the other batter‘s box and skipped to the backstop.
Harper looked down and dropped his bat. On television, John Kruk yelled one word: “Run!”
”Yeah,” Harper said later. “I didn’t see it.”
It wasn’t the last image from another early postseason ouster, but it will be the one that lingers the longest. The Phillies have made the playoffs five years in a row for only the second time in their 144-season history, but haven’t won a series since 2023. In fact, they’ve backslid one round every year since their unexpected run to the 2022 World Series.
Dave Dombrowski has one year left on his contract and is expected to get an extension. If there was even a sliver of doubt, it vanished last Sunday when owner John Middleton said interim manager Don Mattingly’s future is “Dave’s decision.”
Fixing the roster is up to Dombrowski, too. And neither Harper, who turns 34 in two weeks, nor the rest of the core that has been kept together through it all — Kyle Schwarber (33), Trea Turner (33), Aaron Nola (33), J.T. Realmuto (35), and Zack Wheeler (36) — is getting any younger. Their baseball biological clocks are ticking.
“It’s going to be a long offseason,” Harper said, in the most literal sense.
Everybody knows what’s coming. Baseball’s owners are pushing for a salary cap, a nonnegotiable issue for the players’ union for decades. The collective bargaining agreement expires Dec. 1, at which time the owners intend to lock out the players, effectively shuttering the sport.
Five years ago, a 99-day lockout preceded an agreement in mid-March and a slightly delayed 162-game season. This labor fight may last much longer.
In that case, so will the taste in the Phillies’ mouths, which is more bitter than a case of lemons.
For now, there are only questions.
- Will the Thirtysomethings ever win the World Series that they need to cement their legacies as franchise greats?
- Will the Phillies keep Turner at shortstop or move him to another position?
- Amid industrywide speculation that Dombrowski will try again to hire Alex Cora, does he need to make moves that are more drastic than a new manager and the coaching changes that would come with it?
- Is that even possible with $236.5 million in luxury tax commitments already for 2027?
“Yeah, I don’t know,” said Harper, never shy about sharing his State of the Phillies thoughts. “I mean, I obviously have trust in the organization and people that are in charge, you know? We’ll see where we go.
“I’d imagine this team is going to look a lot different next year, with the guys that are kind of leaving this clubhouse. So we’ll see.”
There will be opportunities for Dombrowski to find some answers in the next two months. In 2021, a flock of free agents signed before the lockout.
But there’s a lot of work to be done on a $322 million roster that only narrowly avoided a historic collapse in the last week of the season only to exit the playoffs one round earlier than the 2024 and 2025 runs, which were one round shorter than 2023.
Let’s dive in:
Is time up for the Thirtysomethings?
Dombrowski and his lieutenants push back on the idea of a “championship window,” noting that the Phillies added three rookies — Andrew Painter, Justin Crawford, and, later in the season, reliever Alex McFarlane — in meaningful roles.
Schwarber is clinging to that narrative, too.
“Maybe I’m just the positive outlook guy, right?” he said, mustering a smile. “But we had a lot of first-year guys here who came in and just got their feet wet, not just in the big leagues but also in the postseason. That experience is huge.”
Painter, in particular, appears poised to fulfill his top-of-the-rotation promise. The Phillies demoted him to triple A with a 7.06 ERA in mid-June. He returned 44 days later, posted a 3.65 ERA in 11 starts, then threw three scoreless innings in relief in Game 2 against the Braves, a performance that Realmuto called “career-altering.”
Crawford’s impact is less certain. His tendency to hit the ball on the ground and defensive imperfections put him in a center-field platoon with Derek Hill. But context is important: Crawford was among only 10 players this season with at least 400 plate appearances at age 22 or younger. And he impressed teammates and staff with his poise and confidence
Maybe he develops into an everyday player. Maybe not.
McFarlane, a converted starter who throws 100 mph, could be a bullpen fixture. Then again, the Phillies once said the same about the player drafted one round after him in 2022: Orion Kerkering. Once a late-inning mainstay, Kerkering got demoted in triple A in September.
The Phillies’ previous infusion of youth produced Alec Bohm, Bryson Stott, and Brandon Marsh, solid players who remained supporting actors. They need Painter, Crawford, and eventually Aidan Miller (more on him shortly) to be leading men.
But, mostly, Dombrowski must deepen an organization that lacked a No. 6 starter and had three catchers and only two trustworthy leverage relievers on the playoff roster.
“When you look at our team, it’s easy to kind of point to us older guys and say that that’s why we succeed,” Schwarber said. “I think the biggest thing is that it takes everyone.“
The Phillies’ proverbial window often is tied to Wheeler, who is under contract through 2027 and unsure if he will play beyond then. With Cristopher Sánchez, Jesús Luzardo, and Painter under control through at least 2031, the Phillies believe the window can stay open for longer.
How do they fix the offense?
Over the last six years, Dombrowski’s solution to most problems has been to throw money at them.
That might not be possible now.
Even if the owners are unsuccessful in getting a salary cap, the penalties for the high-payroll teams almost certainly will be harsher in the next CBA. The Phillies had the fourth-highest luxury-tax payroll this season. After getting taxed $56.06 million last year, their 2026 bill is projected to be $61 million.
That’s a lot to pay for three postseason games — none at home — and one win.
The Phillies scored three runs or less in 72 games, including the postseason. They were 19th in the majors in runs, 22nd in OPS, and 23rd in on-base percentage. And they were 28th in on-base percentage from the right side of the plate.
Something needs to change.
Dombrowski’s impulse may be to sign a free-agent right fielder such as Seiya Suzuki or Randy Arozarena, right-handed hitters who will be 32 on opening day. It will help that $38 million in dead money for released Nick Castellanos and Taijuan Walker finally will be off the books.
But without knowing the financial rules of the sport, Dombrowski may have to get more creative. Marsh went from an All-Star starter in July to not cracking the Phillies’ lineup against a lefty opener in winner-takes-all Game 3 in Atlanta. His value went through the floor. But if the Phillies can spin him in a trade for a hitter who better fits their lineup (righty-hitting outfielder Jo Adell comes to mind), they should.
Bohm is heading into free agency. The 30-year-old third/first baseman grew up before our eyes after the Phillies drafted him third overall in 2018. He was miscast as a cleanup hitter, but 88 or more RBIs in three of the last four seasons won’t be easy to replace.
“I would love to be back if they would have me back,” Bohm said, though it’s unlikely after the Phillies dangled him in trade talks in consecutive offseasons.
With seven years and nearly $191 million left on his contract, Turner isn’t going anywhere — except maybe to a new position. The Phillies will talk internally about a move, maybe to the outfield, which would open shortstop eventually for Miller. But the 22-year-old top prospect missed almost the entire season because of a back condition that necessitated a spinal procedure in June.
Regardless, Turner understands his role in all this.
“I’ve got a lot of work to do to kind of just go over everything and figure out as much as I can, find answers, see what I did bad,” Turner said. “But I think this year is the biggest question mark for me offensively in a long time.”
It’s reasonable to expect a rebound from Turner after the worst season of his career. But it wouldn’t solve all of the Phillies’ problems, either.
How do they fix the bullpen?
Dombrowski probably is bound for the Hall of Fame, if he ever stops working. But building a bullpen has long been a blind spot.
To be fair, the Phillies didn’t know Brad Keller would tear a ligament in his elbow three months into a two-year, $22 million contract. But they signed Keller based on one big season with the Cubs. And while Dombrowski won a reliever swap with the Royals to get Jonathan Bowlan for Matt Strahm, the Phillies needed more.
Instead, they banked on José Alvarado and Kerkering. Neither pitched in the postseason. Dombrowski acquired lefty Brooks Raley and Caleb Kilian at the trade deadline. The former was ineffective; the latter got injured.
Now, Dombrowski must recast most of the bullpen around closer Jhoan Duran. Alvarado is a free agent and needs a fresh start. Kerkering’s stock plummeted, but it’s in everyone’s interest to move on.
Dombrowski could throw money at pending free agent Adrian Morejon, although the hard-throwing lefty may be seeking a chance to close after setting up for Mason Miller with the Padres.
There isn’t much help in the farm system, unless the Phillies turn former first-round pick Gage Wood into a reliever. It wouldn’t be the worst idea. The fiery 22-year-old once was a closer in college at Arkansas.
Who will be the manager?
Absent changes to the core, Dombrowski’s biggest move may be to hire Cora.
Dombrowski gave Cora his first managerial job nine years ago in Boston, and they won 108 games and World Series with a high-payroll team in their first season together. They’ve remained close, with Cora often calling Dombrowski a “mentor” and Dombrowski comparing Cora to Hall of Fame tacticians Tony La Russa and Jim Leyland.
Cora turned down Dombrowski’s offer to manage the team in April (while Rob Thomson still had the job). After getting fired days earlier by the Red Sox, Cora preferred to spend the summer at home with his young family while still getting paid.
Only then did Dombrowski elevate Mattingly from bench coach after firing Thomson. It’s notable that Mattingly’s interim tag wasn’t removed even though the Phillies went 79-55 under his leadership after a 9-19 start.
One thing is clear: If Cora is ready to get back in the dugout, Dombrowski surely will have him.
But Cora can’t bat cleanup or get three outs in the eighth inning.
