ATLANTA — In 2023, the Phillies came here for a playoff series with their best two pitchers unavailable to start Game 1 against a record-setting offense.
So, they got creative.
It was difficult not to feel a twinge of déjà vu Monday, when Don Mattingly announced that Jesús Luzardo will start — “I should say open,” he clarified — Game 1 of a best-of-three wild-card series against the Braves.
Luzardo should get down-ballot Cy Young votes for a 2.86 ERA and 221 strikeouts in 179⅔ innings. But he has thrown four pitches in a game over the last three weeks because of an inflamed left shoulder. And while catcher J.T. Realmuto said the Phillies “don’t think 10 days off is necessarily long enough to throw him out of whack,” the truth is … well, let’s let Mattingly tell it.
“I don’t think we really know what to expect,” he said.
The Phillies planned to have Zack Wheeler start Game 1 against Braves ace Chris Sale. But they needed him Sunday in a must-win regular-season finale. Cristopher Sánchez is lined up for Game 2 on regular rest. Aaron Nola? He’d have been an option, if not for a panicky gambit to start him on two days’ rest Saturday night.
Maybe Luzardo will tap into postseason adrenaline and last six innings. Maybe he’ll go once through the Braves’ order. He threw four fastballs to get three outs in the eighth inning of a four-run game in the rain Sunday against the Rays, who had nothing to play for.
It didn’t reveal much.
“Once the third hitter came up, I wanted to call an 0-0 sweeper just to get one in there and see how it looked,” Realmuto said. “But I was like, ‘There’s no way this guy gets out in one pitch, too, so we’ll get ahead with a sinker and go ahead with the sweeper.’ And we ended up not needing the sweeper, which was unfortunate that he didn’t get to throw that pitch.”
There’s always Tuesday against leadoff-hitting Braves star Ronald Acuña Jr.
Three years ago, the Phillies’ pitching conundrum was less about the options behind Wheeler and Nola than the matchup. The Braves tied the single-season major-league record with 307 homers, but were susceptible to high velocity, according to the Phillies’ scouting report.
The plan called for finesse lefty Ranger Suárez to go through the order 1½ times before attacking the Braves with a parade of hard-throwing relievers. It worked in a series-opening 3-0 victory.
Just as the Phillies came up with that Game 1 script, they will have one this time, too, although they surely will take as many outs as Luzardo can get. Andrew Painter is available out of the bullpen. If they could use only Luzardo, Painter, and rookie reliever Alex McFarlane to get to closer Jhoan Duran, they would be ecstatic.
But while the Phillies’ pitching plan begins with Luzardo and crossed fingers, there’s immense pressure on Sale to deliver for the Braves, especially with fellow Cy Young candidate Sánchez looming for the Phillies in Game 2.
Game 1 is important in any postseason series. In a best-of-three, it’s imperative. Since the wild-card miniseries was instituted in 2022, 11 of the 16 series ended in sweeps. Only one team has overcome a Game 1 loss to win the series, and the 2025 Yankees were playing at home against the Red Sox.
A few other thoughts heading into the series:
Getting it right vs. left
Mattingly is expected to stack the lineup with right-handed hitters, notably outfielders Derek Hill and Bryan De La Cruz. Maybe it won’t matter because Sale allowed only six runs on 15 hits in 26 innings in four starts against the Phillies.
But Hill and De La Cruz will be factors beyond Game 1.
Atlanta’s bullpen may feature as many as four lefties (Dylan Lee, Dylan Dodd, Ray Kerr, and Brent Suter), which could create opportunities for Hill and De La Cruz to stay in the game after Sale exits and come off the bench in Games 2 and 3.
Hill, acquired in an early June trade with the White Sox, batted .261 with seven homers and a .783 OPS and played stellar defense in a center-field platoon with rookie Justin Crawford. De La Cruz, a veteran who came up from triple A in August, hit .280 with two homers and a .762 OPS.
“D-Hill has been an incredible asset for us in the outfield and at the plate against lefties,” Bryce Harper said. “De La Cruz, same thing. These guys, making the moves that we have, can change a postseason for you. Big hit here, big hit there. It’s funny to look back on a lot of postseasons in baseball history. Not many of the superstar players play to their ability. It’s always that hush-hush guy down the lineup that just makes an impact and you win the game.”
Said Mattingly: “We struggled with lefties earlier in the year, and they at least give us some options to put a better crew out there.”
Turning the page
Nobody will be happier to see his stats wiped from the scoreboard than Trea Turner.
Turner endured the worst season of his career. One year after winning his second batting title and finishing fifth in the NL MVP race, the $300 million shortstop batted .242, reached base at a .297 clip, and had a .675 OPS, well below his career levels (.292, .343, .810).
“I feel like when you’re going through the season, you’re looking up at the scoreboard, you see your numbers all the time, and now they kind of reset,” Turner said. “From that mentality standpoint, it’s kind of refreshing a little bit. But it doesn’t matter what the numbers look like. Even now, it’s just whether you win or lose.”
Especially now. Turner returned to the leadoff spot over the weekend and had two hits in each of the last two games. He finished on a 10-for-33 (.303) roll with four walks and only seven strikeouts.
Keeping it going is the best way to make everyone forget about the last six months.
“In New York [two weeks ago], I feel like I swung the bat better a little bit,” Turner said. “I feel like I’m in a good position to see the ball better, make good decisions, and just feel good at the plate.”
Hit the road
Most teams prefer to open the playoffs at home. But after a week from hell, in which they lost four games in a row amid a chorus of boos and only narrowly avoided an epic collapse, maybe it’s best for the Phillies to get away.
“I mean, we’re not afraid,” Kyle Schwarber said. “That’s the biggest thing is that we’re not fazed by where we’re playing.”
In fact, the Phillies had a better record on the road (45-36) than at home (43-38). They’ve also lost five of their last six postseason games at home dating to Game 6 of the 2023 NL Championship Series.
