Nearing the end of the first season with the automated ball-strike system, the Phillies’ analytics department has a challenge for catcher J.T. Realmuto.
Challenge more often.
“That’s one of the things that we see on the reports,” interim manager Don Mattingly said Thursday, a rare day off for Realmuto with Zack Wheeler on the mound. “He’s really good at it. Probably there’s more chances for him to do it. I like to see him do it. When he thinks it’s a strike, it pretty much is, right?”
Indeed, Realmuto has a 79% success rate, best among all catchers with at least 15 challenges. But despite being behind the plate for the second-most innings (940), he was tied for only 32nd with 70 challenges.
By comparison, the Brewers’ William Contreras leads all catchers with 993⅔ innings behind the plate and 167 challenges. Yankees catcher Austin Wells is fourth with 858⅓ innings and tied for fourth with 113 challenges.
There are several factors at play for Realmuto. He has said he likes ABS for “the big misses,” in terms of both the obviousness and timing of an umpire’s call. He won’t hesitate to challenge a close call at a pivotal point in the game.
But Realmuto is more conservative than most catchers about challenging a pitch that doesn’t flip an at-bat or impact a potential rally. Teams begin a game with only two challenges and retain them as long as they keep getting them right.
“It still goes back to leverage,” Mattingly said. “First pitch, unless he’s 100% [sure] — or first pitch of the game, right? — it could be a strike and he knows it’s a strike, but [do you] challenge?”
After every game, the Phillies coaches receive data on everything, from defense to pitcher and hitter metrics. A review of ABS is part of the report.
Lately, Realmuto has challenged more frequently. In August, he contested 14 pitches and got 10 correct. He has already challenged nine this month … and gone 7-2.
In Wheeler’s previous start, last Saturday night against the Braves, Realmuto challenged a 2-2 pitch with the bases loaded and one out in the first inning. The call was overturned for a strikeout of Mauricio Dubón.
Wheeler called it a “gutsy” challenge given that it was only the first inning. But it also might have prevented the Braves from having a big inning in what turned out to be a 4-2 Phillies victory.
Two days later, Realmuto successfully challenged two pitches in the second inning of a scoreless game for Jesús Luzardo, who went on to pitch a complete-game shutout.
It’s all part of finding an effective ABS strategy.
If anything, Realmuto is so effective at getting close pitches overturned that the Phillies may prefer their hitters to be less aggressive. For instance, four of Bryce Harper’s last five challenges came in the first inning. He lost three of them, leaving only one for the rest of the game.
“Every time [Realmuto] challenges, you feel like he’s going to be right, so I think we should encourage him to challenge when he sees it,” Mattingly said. “And that’s kind of sometimes the frustration when you challenge early in non-leverage situations offensively. It kind of makes him go, ‘I can’t,’ because you don’t like being out of them.
“There’s not been real encouragement [for Realmuto to challenge more] other than he’s really good at it. If he thinks it’s a strike, challenge it.”
Marsh bruised
Brandon Marsh fouled a ball off his right foot and left the game in the eighth inning. X-rays were negative, according to Mattingly. The Phillies were calling it a bruise.
“It’ll be sore,” Mattingly said, “but yeah, I think it’s going to be fine.”
Marsh, a left-handed hitter, was unlikely to be in the lineup anyway Friday night against Braves ace lefty Chris Sale. The Phillies were expected to stack the lineup with right-handed hitters, including outfielders Derek Hill and either Bryan De La Cruz and/or Edmundo Sosa.
Extra bases
Veteran pitcher Nestor Cortes’ next appearance will be in triple A, according to Mattingly, after he allowed one run in one inning Tuesday night for low-A Clearwater. The Phillies took a flier last month by signing the 31-year-old lefty, who had surgery after last season on a torn biceps tendon. … Reliever Caleb Kilian, sidelined by a strained oblique muscle in his left side, traveled with the team to continue his throwing progression, though he’s still weeks away from returning. … Flyers winger Porter Martone threw the ceremonial first pitch. … Aaron Nola (6-10, 4.76 ERA) is scheduled to start Friday night in Atlanta against Sale (14-9, 2.10). The matchups for the rest of the series: Saturday— Jesús Luzardo (14-5, 2.87) vs. Braves righty Tyler Mahle (5-10, 4.05); Sunday— Andrew Painter (3-9, 5.71) vs. righty Grant Holmes (9-5, 3.46).
